5Trump Is a Good Campaigner
More accurately, he’s a great campaigner. Trump uses a two-pronged approach. First, he deliberately creates maximum disorder and strives within the chaos. Whether the operations are a mess is beside the point. It plays to his advantage in far too many ways to list in this space.
Secondly, he is, without saying — a master media manipulator. So much so that he had done so earlier in his private life to become a noted enough celebrity in the 1980s and 1990s. And so much so to the point where he rode $5B of free media coverage to the presidency and has since continued to dominate said news cycle.
Again, whether the coverage is negative is besides the point as well — since large portions of Americans have an even greater distrust of ‘the media’ anyways, Trump just plays the other side in the simplistic black-and-white world of the masses.
4Trump Has Secured His Base — Have the Democrats?
There’s no explanation needed to follow the statement that Donald Trump has long since secured his base. The last two and a half years have also provided enough time for Trump to secure his flanks as well (establishment Republicans, right-wing media, wealthy donors, and foreign clients.)
However, it remains to be seen whether the progressive left will get behind the Democrat nominee. This didn’t happen in 2016 — largely because Hillary Clinton wasn’t offering anything they wanted (greater access to health care, education, increased investment in infrastructure, and a rollback of the military-security apparatus.) The Democrats are going to have to nominate someone who will at least give lip service to do doing so, or the voter apathy will continue.
3No New Wars
Peace candidates almost always win, with Ronald Reagan being the exception. Woodrow Wilson ran on “keeping America out of The War” in 1916. Dwight Eisenhower promised to end the Korean War in 1952. Richard Nixon wanted to “bring an honorable end to the Vietnam War and win the peace” in 1968. George W. Bush conveyed “no nation building” and a “humble foreign policy” in 2000. Barack Obama was a fierce critic of the Iraq War. And Donald Trump wanted to get along with Russia.
Now, almost every one of these presidents reneged in more ways than one outside of Dwight Eisenhower and (wait for it…) — Trump (albeit to a degree.) There are, after all, no new wars. Something no president has done over the last 35 years.
Trump may very well be able to run as the peace candidate again and may be doing so against a saber-rattling Democrat. For as repulsive as many view the sitting president, the fact remains that Americans have absolutely zero appetite for any new military adventures and have historically flocked to the side who offers the best chance for peace.
2Fed Chair Jay Powell Has Cut Interest Rates
Much to the surprise of the average voter, the president and other elected officials do not ‘run the economy.’ The economy is run by the millions of decisions that are made every waking minute by everyone all around the globe. And by the Federal Reserve — America’s central bank. They control the money supply and they set interest rates.
The Fed is an entity that is independent from the government (as the old saying goes, the Federal Reserve is about as federal as Federal Express.) But Trump has seemingly politicized the central bank by pressing Jay Powell to keep interest rates artificially low to make sure the party’s still going in November 2020. Whether there will be a bill to pay on that is a column for another day, but Trump and Powell are ensuring that the good times will keep rolling.
1The Economy Is Still Good (Relatively)
Thanks to these artificially low interest rates, the US economy is still…good (enough.) Of course, it’s all relative. It is the post-2008 world, and the American economy is far less robust than what it was during its massive expansion starting in the 1870 up until the turn of the century.
Nonetheless, the stock market is high, jobs are plentiful, wages are increasing, inflation is nonexistent, and most importantly, everyone can still go down to the bank and withdraw what they have in there.
And that may be all that matters. For the last 100 years, no sitting President has ever lost reelection with the economy not in a recession. For all their daily complaints, Americans as a whole are very are risk-averse. Why fix what in their mind may very well not be totally broken?
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