In a vote earlier this week, the House of Representatives voted to impeach Donald Trump, only the third time this has happened in American history. However, despite the ongoing impeachment hearings and the House vote, BetOnline still has him as the favorite to win the 2020 election.
Against a rather large field of Democratic challengers, Trump is partially relying on the splitting of Democratic votes among his adversaries. Joe Biden is second in the field in terms of odds, followed closely by Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Elizabeth Warren in that order. No democratic candidate has odds better than +500, while Trump sits at -110 to win, comparatively a relatively heavy favorite.
Part of this advantage comes from the financial and political advantages incumbent administrations almost always have over challengers, and part of it comes from the splitting of the opposing vote. Similarly to 2016, if the democratic party cannot decide on a nominee which will appeal to the largest base of democratic voters, Trump will have a major advantage because there are no other Republicans in the running, and he is the incumbent.
Trump’s impeachment also does not prevent him from running for office in the 2020 election, nor does it even necessarily mean he will be forced out of office before the end of his term.
The House which voted on the impeachment, is comprised of mostly Democrats. This gave them a partisan advantage when voting to impeach the president, and all but two Democrats voted in favor of both articles of impeachment.
However, the proceedings now fall to the Senate, a body whose majority is controlled by the Republicans. In order to convict Trump during the Senate hearings and remove him from office, two thirds of the Senate would have to vote in favor of impeachment.
However, since the House voted almost exactly along party lines and the Senate is Republican-controlled, there is not much reason to believe that the Senate will vote to impeach as the Democratic house did. Without the Senate confirming the vote of the House, Trump can remain in office to finish his first term and will have even less of a roadblock to his second term.