{"id":96113,"date":"2021-12-27T13:04:30","date_gmt":"2021-12-27T18:04:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/?p=96113"},"modified":"2021-12-31T10:03:19","modified_gmt":"2021-12-31T15:03:19","slug":"advanced-stats-report-patriots-let-bills-turn-sundays-game-into-a-passing-affair","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/?p=96113","title":{"rendered":"Advanced Stats Report: Patriots Let Bills Turn Sunday&#8217;s Game Into a Passing Affair"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Patriots squandered a chance to essentially clinch an AFC East title in their 33-21 loss to the Bills on Sunday.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">As head coach Bill Belichick said on Monday morning, the story of the game came on third and fourth down, where Buffalo had the advantage (Bills &#8211; 9-16, Patriots &#8211; 6-16).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Looking deeper into the discrepancy, the Patriots lost to the Bills because they tried to beat Buffalo at their own game.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The game script turned into New England\u2019s passing attack versus Josh Allen and the Bills\u2019 passing offense. As one would expect, that development didn\u2019t favor the Patriots.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Patriots quarterback Mac Jones finished with a total EPA of -0.6 on his 36 drop-backs. In comparison, Allen added 21.7 total expected points on 49 drop-backs against the Pats defense.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Furthermore, the Bills had tremendous success throwing against New England\u2019s man coverages while the Pats couldn\u2019t separate against Buffalo\u2019s secondary in man-to-man schemes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Although it wasn\u2019t going to be as drastic as the Week 13 windstorm, the Patriots couldn\u2019t turn Sunday\u2019s game into a rock fight in the trenches. Instead, they played on Buffalo\u2019s terms, where execution in the passing game won the day.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Here are various advanced stats from the Patriots\u2019 loss to the Bills on Sunday:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">MAC\u2019S PASSING METRICS\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Over the last two games, the advanced metrics aren\u2019t friendly to rookie quarterback Mac Jones who hasn\u2019t been as sharp with his downfield accuracy and isn\u2019t processing coverage as quickly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In New England\u2019s losses to the Colts and Bills, Jones\u2019 completion percentage over expected (-9.7) ranks 29th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in that span, a significant dropoff from the first 13 games of the season for Jones, where he ranked fifth in the metric (+4.2).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Jones is also holding the ball for much longer over the last two weeks with a 3.1-second average time to throw. In the first 13 games, Mac\u2019s average time to throw was 2.51 seconds.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Whether it\u2019s a product of secondaries clamping down on New England\u2019s receivers or not, the reality is that New England\u2019s passing game, including Jones, isn\u2019t executing well enough.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Although it\u2019s difficult to say for sure without knowing the call, some of Mac\u2019s inaccuracies appear to be instances where he\u2019s not on the same page with his receivers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96113-1\" width=\"788\" height=\"438\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/to7p8b_1.mp4?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/to7p8b_1.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/to7p8b_1.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">For example, Jones has Hunter Henry winning on the \u201csail\u201d route against zone coverage, with Kendrick Bourne\u2019s vertical route clearing out the sideline. The Pats love this concept against zone, and Mac has hit it all season. This time, Henry flattens his route path through his break like it\u2019s a deep out pattern, but Mac throws it like Henry should be running a corner or seven route. As a result, the ball isn\u2019t in the right place.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There were many examples, especially against zone coverage, where Pats receivers were breaking their routes off in ways that Jones wasn\u2019t anticipating.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">As much as we want to blame one player or area of the offense, the failures for New England\u2019s passing attack are a product of everyone operating at a suboptimal level.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The good news is that it doesn\u2019t appear that Mac Jones suddenly is no longer an accurate quarterback, but rather the timing and cohesiveness in New England\u2019s offense aren\u2019t there.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">PASS PROTECTION STATS\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">One silver-lining from Sunday\u2019s loss was that the Patriots\u2019 offensive line mostly did its job to keep Mac Jones clean and produce a potent rushing attack against Buffalo.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-96117\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/PassPro-300x72.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"708\" height=\"170\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/PassPro-300x72.png 300w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/PassPro-150x36.png 150w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/PassPro-450x108.png 450w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/PassPro.png 573w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 708px) 100vw, 708px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Jones was under pressure on 30.6% of his drop-backs, but the pressure mounted late when New England became one-dimensional, and the O-Line was only responsible for six pressures.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Plus, the Patriots added 0.30 expected points per rush (98th percentile) with a 50% success rate on their 27 carries in Sunday\u2019s loss.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 640px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96113-2\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Harris31Yards.mp4?_=2\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Harris31Yards.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Harris31Yards.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">On Harris\u2019s 31-yard run, the Pats ran a G\/TE counter scheme where right guard Shaq Mason pulled to kick out the edge defender and Jonnu Smith led through the hole. By pulling from the backside, the scheme allows left tackle Isaiah Wynn to combo up to the second level, and Wynn\u2019s block springs Harris for a big gain.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Although it wasn\u2019t enough to produce offensively, New England\u2019s offensive line mostly held up its end of the bargain.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">DEFENSIVE PRESSURES &amp; RUN STOPS<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In a game where Bill Belichick\u2019s defense failed to force a single punt for the first time in his coaching career, the Patriots&#8217; defense wasn\u2019t good enough in any area to stop Buffalo\u2019s offense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-96116\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/QBPressures-1-300x103.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"734\" height=\"252\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/QBPressures-1-300x103.png 300w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/QBPressures-1-150x51.png 150w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/QBPressures-1-450x154.png 450w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/QBPressures-1.png 572w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 734px) 100vw, 734px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">With that said, New England hurried Bills quarterback Josh Allen on 20 occasions yet only hit him four times and registered zero sacks. In other words, a lot of close but no cigar this week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">On his 20 drop-backs while under pressure, Allen attempted 19 throws and scrambled once. The Pats rushed with three and four-man rushes to keep Allen in the pocket, then had their short zone defenders or spies at the second level jump Allen when he took off running.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96113-3\" width=\"788\" height=\"443\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/AllenFlipstoDiggs.mp4?_=3\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/AllenFlipstoDiggs.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/AllenFlipstoDiggs.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The results were mostly awful. Allen found outlets while in scramble mode and was able to get out of pressure by throwing into the voided areas as the short zones collapsed on him.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In the red zone, the Pats made stops by hurrying Allen into errant throws or throwaways.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 640px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96113-4\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/BarmoreFourthDownPressure.mp4?_=4\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/BarmoreFourthDownPressure.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/BarmoreFourthDownPressure.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">On their only drive that didn\u2019t end in points, Pats rookie Christian Barmore used a push-pull technique to disengage from right guard Daryl Williams and hurried Allen into a throw behind Emmanuel Sanders, resulting in a drop by the Bills\u2019 wideout.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 640px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96113-5\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/KVNThirdDownPressure.mp4?_=5\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/KVNThirdDownPressure.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/KVNThirdDownPressure.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This time, Kyle Van Noy breaks through the line after the initial coverage holds up and hurries Allen into one of his four throwaways, holding Buffalo to three points in the red zone.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There was a cat-and-mouse game going on between New England\u2019s front seven and Allen that didn\u2019t go the Patriots\u2019 way on Sunday. In short, the Pats\u2019 pass rush was aggressive in closing down Allen\u2019s space when he extended plays, which left openings in coverage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Although it felt like the Patriots didn\u2019t pressure Allen, they did, but it came at the expense of breaking down the coverage structure, and that\u2019s why it didn\u2019t have a significant impact.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Remember, effectively pressuring quarterbacks is about marrying the rush with good pass coverage to sack the QB. You can\u2019t expect one without the other.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">RUN STOPS\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/h4>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Bills ended up nearly producing a net-positive EPA on the ground with a 44% success rate, which falls in the 73rd percentile even though the defense won more run plays than the offense.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Leading the way in run defense for the Patriots was nose tackle Davon Godchaux, who had three stops. Lawrence Guy, Daniel Ekuale, and Barmore each added two stops.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Things were more in New England\u2019s favor than not when the Bills ran the ball, but it wasn\u2019t as one-sided in that department as the Week 13 matchup.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">COVERAGE STATS\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Although we aren\u2019t making excuses for the Patriots\u2019 defensive backs, the breakdowns in the secondary were more systematic than lacking physical traits.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">New England\u2019s man coverages were shredded because the Pats failed to play team defense where corners taking outside leverage weren\u2019t receiving inside help from their teammates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-96115\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Coverage-300x86.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"715\" height=\"205\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Coverage-300x86.png 300w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Coverage-600x173.png 600w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Coverage-150x43.png 150w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Coverage-450x130.png 450w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Coverage.png 760w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 715px) 100vw, 715px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The biggest loser in the scheme breakdowns was Myles Bryant, who was torched by Bills wideout Isaiah McKenzie and allowed a team-high 89 yards into his coverage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96113-6\" width=\"788\" height=\"445\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/9ku71p.mp4?_=6\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/9ku71p.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/9ku71p.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">McKenzie motions into a tight bunch set as the outside receiver on their critical third-down conversion in the fourth quarter, with Bryant taking outside leverage in cover-one. McKenzie gets a free release at the line, Kyle Dugger allows him to run past him without a jam, and nobody closes off the middle of the field. Expecting Bryant to turn on the jets and recover to force an incompletion is a big ask for any cornerback.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96113-7\" width=\"788\" height=\"443\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/DiggsTD.mp4?_=7\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/DiggsTD.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/DiggsTD.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">On Stefon Diggs\u2019 touchdown, it was more of the same. Pats corner J.C. Jackson has outside leverage on Diggs and expects post-safety help. Instead, Devin McCourty helps in the other direction and leaves Jackson vulnerable on the quick post. Again, especially with Allen\u2019s arm strength, that\u2019s nearly an impossible route to defend if Jackson doesn\u2019t get inside help.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96113-8\" width=\"788\" height=\"443\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/McKenzieFlatRoute.mp4?_=8\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/McKenzieFlatRoute.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/McKenzieFlatRoute.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Bills also feasted on the Pats&#8217; secondary with the inside receiver (McKenzie) releasing into the flat out of bunch formations. Once again, Bryant is out-leveraged immediately, and if the Pats aren\u2019t switching here, Bryant has no chance to cover McKenzie on this route.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">New England needs its defensive backs to cover better than they did on Sunday, but Buffalo had a good plan of attack against the Patriots\u2019 coverage rules and kept their foot on the gas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">As easy as it is to blame the players, the coaching staff never adjusted to the Bills\u2019 strategy.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Patriots squandered a chance to essentially clinch an AFC East title in their 33-21 loss to the Bills on Sunday. As head coach Bill Belichick said on Monday morning, the story of the game came on third and fourth down, where Buffalo had the advantage (Bills &#8211; 9-16, Patriots &#8211; 6-16). Looking deeper into<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":131993,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[419,210],"class_list":["post-96113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-bills","tag-patriots"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Advanced Stats Report: Patriots Let Bills Turn Sunday&#039;s Game Into a Passing Affair - CLNS Media<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Patriots squandered a chance to essentially clinch an AFC East title in their 33-21 loss to the Bills on Sunday.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/?p=96113\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Advanced Stats Report: Patriots Let Bills Turn Sunday&#039;s Game Into a Passing Affair - 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