{"id":96660,"date":"2022-01-03T20:28:55","date_gmt":"2022-01-04T01:28:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/?p=96660"},"modified":"2022-01-07T10:32:10","modified_gmt":"2022-01-07T15:32:10","slug":"lazar-patriots-currently-have-the-least-explosive-passing-attack-in-afc-playoffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/?p=96660","title":{"rendered":"Lazar: Patriots Currently Have the Least Explosive Passing Attack in AFC Playoffs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Patriots should feel good about dismantling the Jacksonville Jaguars to officially clinch a playoff berth in Sunday\u2019s 50-10 beat down at Gillette Stadium.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">New England\u2019s blowout of the Jags was one of the most lop-sided affairs in the NFL this season, and Mac Jones led all quarterbacks in EPA per play and drop-back success rate this week.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Patriots\u2019 offense\u2019s success seemed to fuel Jones, in particular, who was amped after all three of his touchdown passes and even the four others scored by the Pats on the ground.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">However, as fun as the post-New Years party in Foxboro was, the reality is the Patriots are entering the 2021 postseason as the least explosive passing attack in the AFC playoffs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">On Sunday, the Pats were so successful through the air because the Jacksonville defense let them play on their terms. In other words, this doesn&#8217;t feel sustainable against stingier defenses that they&#8217;ll face in the playoffs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">When Jones gets the ball out quickly, attacks short zone defenders, and is presented with third-and-manageable situations, he shreds opposing defenses. But New England threatens only a small quadrant of the field.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">We can show you countless examples from Sunday\u2019s win where Mac reads out zone structures and throws against out-leveraged zone-droppers to keep the Pats offense moving.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96660-1\" width=\"788\" height=\"442\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MeyersThirdDownZone.mp4?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MeyersThirdDownZone.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MeyersThirdDownZone.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Here, the Jags show pressure with the double-A gap \u201cmug\u201d front but drop off into cover two. Jones sees the defense back off the blitz, manipulates the short zone defender nearest to his target with a quick shoulder fake, and hits Jakobi Meyers in the soft spot to move the chains.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">New England\u2019s average distance to a first down on third down was only 3.8 yards, which allowed the Pats to stay in their comfort zone and go 8-of-10 on third down.<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96660-2\" width=\"788\" height=\"445\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MeyersThirdDownMan.mp4?_=2\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MeyersThirdDownMan.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MeyersThirdDownMan.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">In this play, the Pats run their double dig scheme past the sticks, where Jones will read the \u201crat\u201d defender in the middle of the defense. When Jags linebacker Damien Wilson falls off Jakobi Meyers to rally back into the middle, Mac stays on Meyers and throws into single coverage.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">If you\u2019re looking for early-down success, look no further than Josh McDaniels\u2019 quick-game concepts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96660-3\" width=\"788\" height=\"442\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/WilkersonQuickGame.mp4?_=3\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/WilkersonQuickGame.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/WilkersonQuickGame.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Pats play two-on-two on the weak side of the formation with a snag concept on first down. When the linebacker takes running back Rhamondre Stevenson in man coverage (flat), it opens up an easy throw to Kristian Wilkerson on the snag route, and Mac doesn\u2019t hesitate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The fact that Jones operates so smoothly with clean reads of shallow coverage players is good, and nobody is looking down on Mac or the Pats offense for keeping the train on schedule.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">However, it\u2019s a style of play that is becoming predictable and difficult to implement when the Patriots aren\u2019t leading on the scoreboard right out of the gate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Although they took it to a Jags defense that couldn\u2019t get them out of their ideal passing script, defenses in the postseason won\u2019t be so willing to give Jones his bread-and-butter throws.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Furthermore, the Pats\u2019 passing offense only produced two explosive plays against Jacksonville, and Mac had just one completion over 20 air yards. Jones\u2019 average target depth was 6.6 air yards in the first three quarters, with two of his three deep attempts coming in garbage time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Plus, one explosive was a 20-yard screen to tight end Jonnu Smith, while the other was a 20-yard touchdown to Kristian Wilkerson on a schemed shot play (fake bubble screen-and-go).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-96668\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/pass-chart_JON586540_2021-REG-17_1641157447948-300x300.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"682\" height=\"682\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/pass-chart_JON586540_2021-REG-17_1641157447948-300x300.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/pass-chart_JON586540_2021-REG-17_1641157447948-336x336.jpeg 336w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/pass-chart_JON586540_2021-REG-17_1641157447948-600x600.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/pass-chart_JON586540_2021-REG-17_1641157447948-150x150.jpeg 150w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/pass-chart_JON586540_2021-REG-17_1641157447948-768x768.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/pass-chart_JON586540_2021-REG-17_1641157447948-450x450.jpeg 450w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/pass-chart_JON586540_2021-REG-17_1641157447948.jpeg 900w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 682px) 100vw, 682px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Defend the dink-and-dunk style all you want. But this passing chart from Jones is neither explosive nor sustainable in the playoffs when defenses game plan New England\u2019s short game.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The problem isn\u2019t that the Pats are mostly successful within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage because they can win by staying ahead of the chains and playing complementary football.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">No, the issue is that they are\u00a0<\/span><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">only<\/span><\/em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> successful throwing the ball short. They couldn\u2019t hit on deeper throws all year, even against the Jaguars (Jones ranks 21st out of 32 quarterbacks in completion rate on passes over 20 yards).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Currently, there\u2019s no evidence that their current personnel can beat a defense over the top, so what happens when the coverage smothers the shorter routes as Buffalo did last week, for instance?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-96669\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/PatsFirstShot-300x169.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"722\" height=\"407\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/PatsFirstShot-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/PatsFirstShot-600x338.png 600w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/PatsFirstShot-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/PatsFirstShot-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/PatsFirstShot-150x85.png 150w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/PatsFirstShot-450x254.png 450w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/PatsFirstShot-1200x677.png 1200w, https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/PatsFirstShot.png 1268w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 722px) 100vw, 722px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Here is a perfect example from an ideal field position to take a shot at the end zone. The Pats send Meyers in motion with a single-high safety, and when he\u2019s followed, Mac knows it\u2019s man coverage. Jones gets into the gun and checks to a play with three verticals: a go by Wilkerson (bottom left), a seam by Kendrick Bourne (left slot), and a deep corner route by Meyers (left).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96660-4\" width=\"788\" height=\"445\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MacSacked.mp4?_=4\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MacSacked.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MacSacked.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">As we roll the play, Bourne is Mac\u2019s best option with the safety helping to Meyers and Bourne at least somewhat winning on his route. Nobody is that open, but Bourne gives Mac a chance. Instead, he holds the ball and takes a sack (time to sack &#8211; 3.66 seconds. There is plenty of time to throw).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Here\u2019s another vertical play design on New England\u2019s adaptation of the 989 concept against cover-one man (single high).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96660-5\" width=\"788\" height=\"442\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/WilkersonDeepBall1.mp4?_=5\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/WilkersonDeepBall1.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/WilkersonDeepBall1.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Patriots pair the two go routes on the boundaries with an over route or crosser from Meyers. Again, none of the three downfield receivers create much separation. Mac picks the best option with Wilkerson, who has a step on his man. But the throw isn\u2019t catchable as it sails over Wilkerson\u2019s head incomplete.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96660-6\" width=\"788\" height=\"441\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MacScramble.mp4?_=6\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MacScramble.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/MacScramble.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The downfield routes were so bad at one point that Bourne and Wilkerson ended up in the same place at the top of the screen. The Pats use a 3&#215;1 formation to stress single-high man, but everyone is covered, and Jones had to take off running.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 788px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-96660-7\" width=\"788\" height=\"442\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/WilkersonDeepBall2.mp4?_=7\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/WilkersonDeepBall2.mp4\">https:\/\/www.clnsmedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/WilkersonDeepBall2.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">At other points, the Patriots created downfield separation by isolating the post safety on a post-corner route by Wilkerson. But Wilkerson drops a catchable ball when the defender appears to swat the top of his helmet with his hand.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Before Pats fans get heated, Mac Jones isn\u2019t the primary issue here. He was throwing to three undrafted wideouts and an elevation from the practice squad was his primary deep threat (Wilkerson).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">New England\u2019s lacking downfield passing game against the Jaguars wasn\u2019t because they didn\u2019t try, making it even more worrisome. <\/span>We would also be more confident in the Patriots&#8217; passing offense if they were an elite unit at picking up yards after catch. But they are currently 15th as a team in yards after catch per reception (3.0).<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Admittedly, there\u2019s a chance the Patriots execute their limited passing script paired with a potent rushing attack at such a high level that they score enough points to win in the postseason.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Plus, their best deep threat, Nelson Agholor, has been inactive due to a concussion over the last two weeks and will hopefully provide a more explosive downfield option (let\u2019s face it, targeting Wilkerson on all three deep throws wasn\u2019t what they had in mind).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">But until the Patriots acquire a go-to receiver for Jones to target downfield, New England\u2019s passing offense will be easier to defend and that doesn&#8217;t bode well for their chances in the postseason.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Patriots should feel good about dismantling the Jacksonville Jaguars to officially clinch a playoff berth in Sunday\u2019s 50-10 beat down at Gillette Stadium.\u00a0 New England\u2019s blowout of the Jags was one of the most lop-sided affairs in the NFL this season, and Mac Jones led all quarterbacks in EPA per play and drop-back success<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":131993,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[47],"tags":[209,210],"class_list":["post-96660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-mac-jones","tag-patriots"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - 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