“The momentum is with the Republicans,” says pollster.
After a shocking poll last week showed Hiral Tipirneni in a virtual tie with Debbie Lesko in a Special Election in Arizona for Trent Franks’ seat, many Republicans began to fret over possibly losing yet another seat in the US Congress. This time in a district Donald Trump won by 21 points no less.
However, a new poll from the most accurate polling agency in the nation — Emerson Polling — shows that Lesko has given herself some cushion heading into tomorrow’s Special Election for #AZ08.
“The momentum is with the Republicans,” said Emerson Professor Spencer Kimball in an exclusive interview with CLNS Media.
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— Emerson Polling (@EmersonPolling) April 23, 2018
Nonetheless, there are many aspects that the Democrats can hold their hat on with just 24 hours to go. Lesko is now polling at 49% amongst likely voters to Tipirneni’s 43% — however, the poll is still within the margin of error.
How will the Democrats pull out yet another shocking special election victory of the GOP?
“If the Democrats are going to have a chance, we are going to have to see these numbers regress back to their normal mean…The independent turnout [needs to] click up a few notches, which would be a big difference as [Tipirneni] is winning that independent vote nearly 2:1.
“So the question is: How many people are going to come out on Election Day as opposed to that early voting that’s taken place the last couple of weeks,” Kimball said.
According to Kimball, the reason for Lesko’s surge is simple: Republicans are finally uniting around Lesko after a brutal primary and most importantly, they’ve been getting out the vote in early voting.
“We’re looking at turnout,” said Kimball. “Last week we were looking at registered voters in the district as our baseline. But this week it appears the Republicans are having a larger turnout in the early vote at about 48% and the Democrats are at 28%,” Kimball stated.
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