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Game Preview: How Patriots Can Turn the Tide in Week 2 vs Dolphins

The Patriots haven't won in Miami since 2019, but they'll have to snap that streak to avoid a 0-2 start to the Mike Vrabel era.
Taylor KylesBy Updated:8 Mins Read

The Patriots look to get their first win this weekend in Miami, where they’ve lost every game since 2019.

New England fell to the Raiders 20-13 at home after a slow start and a lackluster second half. There are several issues to iron out, including an out-of-sync offense, inconsistent coverage, some shaky blitz calls, and untimely penalties. But with a division win on the line, Mike Vrabel’s squad must quickly learn from mistakes and turn the page.

“That’s what I feel, and that’s where our thought process is, is that we want to try to get off to a good start, and if we don’t, we can’t worry about it,” Vrabel said. “These are all things that we have to be able to overcome, whether you get off to a good start, you’re still going to have to finish strong, and if you don’t get off to a great start, you’ve got to go on to the next play. Just the understanding that that’s how this game goes, and we have to be able to work past it, and we have to continue to practice that way.”

The Miami heat and humidity are significant challenges that must be taken into account. That said, the Dolphins look vulnerable after a 33-8 blowout loss in Lucas Oil Stadium.

Tua Tagovailoa’s four turnover-worthy plays were tied for the most in Week 1, including two picks and a fumble on one of his three sacks taken. Stars Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were held under 50 yards each, with the longest of their catches going for 21 yards. Right guard James Daniel and right tackle Austin Jackson are also expected to miss Sunday’s game, which is music to the ears of NFL sack leader Harold Landry.

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones went 22-29 for 272 yards and three total scores against Miami, and Indianapolis ran for 156 yards on 40 carries. Edge rusher Bradley Chubb managed a sack, but it was one of just two times Jones was hit all game.

This week should be a prime bounce back opportunity for the Patriots, but they must make critical improvements to avoid another disappointing defeat. Here are my three keys to New England securing a rare win in Hard Rock Stadium.

Contain Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle

The Patriots will be down All-Pro Christian Gonzalez for a second straight week, a significant loss given his past dominance against the Dolphins’ speedsters. Defensive coordinator Terrell Williams will also miss Sunday’s game, thus elevating inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr, who filled in when needed this offseason.

Whomever is will be tasked with correcting Week 1’s worst pass defense. New England’s coverage gave up a league-high nine explosives to underrated veteran Geno Smith, the most in the NFL.

The Dolphins’ receivers may have been quiet in the opener, but they’re lethal when maximized in Mike McDaniels’ scheme.

“I mean, Tua does a fantastic job of knowing where he wants to go with the ball,” Vrabel said.”Quick delivery, he’s extremely accurate. Then the speed with [Jaylen] Waddle, Tyreek and the whole team. Then again, they have a fullback that has versatility and can play on the inner line of scrimmage, motions. Usually every big play, he’s kind of in the run game, he’s somewhere near it.”

The Patriots just blitzed at an unheard of rate last week for a Vrabel team, with Hawkins’ touchdown allowed and Davis’ 3rd down blitz being poor calls that put players in bad spots. But outside of those gaffs, New England’s blitzes were a big positive for the defense.

“Well, we’re certainly going to have to make them earn it, and we’re going to have to find ways to get the drive stopped,” Vrabel said. You either have to do what the Colts did, which was turn it over, or you’re going to have to make a play along the way and make them earn it. Pick and choose your spots to try to be aggressive.”

Current-top corner Carlton Davis tipped a pass to Jaylinn Hawkins last week, the highlight of a positive performance than ended on a downer. Davis, undersized dynamo Marcus Jones, and the versatile Alex Austin should put up a good fight in man coverage. But McDaniels’ specialty is sneaking Hill and Waddle behind linebackers, and Tagovailoa, while volatile, has a rare gift for manipulating defenders.

If the Patriots lean into more Quarters to cap in-breaking routes while timing up blitzes well against the Dolphins’ new-look right side, Landry, Milton Williams, and the rest of New England’s energized line could dominate on the road.

Establish the Run

The Patriots abandoned the run after an uninspiring first half last week. Rhamondre Stevenson managed just 15 yards on seven carries, averaging -0.3 yards before contact. TreVeyon Henderson had 5.4 yards per carry on five runs, but that included a 14-yard trick play in short yardage.

The result was Drake Maye dropping back 53 times and throwing 46, both the most in the league. That isn’t a sustainable formula, and the team knows it.

“The bottom line is we have to run the ball better and we have to run it more efficiently,” Vrabel said. “Because then I think that all opens up some more of the stuff that we’re doing, can do and want to be able to do so that it’s not just a drop-back passing game.”

Lapses come with starting two rookies on one side, though both turned in net positive performances, but veterans struggled against Las Vegas’ post-snap movement. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels acknowledged these issues while speaking to media, noting how difficult they can be to simulate outside of live action.

“It’s really difficult to simulate movement sometimes in a running game, you know, without being in pads in a game against another opponent that does it differently than the team that you practice against all the time, McDaniels said.”So we had a couple opportunities to see things like that against other opponents in the preseason, which was really good for us. I thought we learned some things there, but same thing, just I think this is time on task and a great opportunity for us to see that in a live setting, obviously against a good team.”

Even at their best, the Patriots aren’t built to be a consistent dropback passing team, they’re built to pound the rock. There were reasons for optimism, particularly combo blocks between Will Campbell and Jared Wilson, but they must climb effectively and prevent backdoor penetration to exploit what was a porous Dolphins front.

Establish Rhythm in the Pass Game

Consistency eluded the Patriots’ aerial attack late this summer, and that seemingly carried over to the opener.

Maye went 30-46 for just 287 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, with most of the these issues stemming from poor decision-making early and erratic accuracy throughout. Maye also went 1-3 in scoring territory, with lowlights including a high throw to a wide open DeMario Douglas, a batted pass, and a delay of game penalty.

“Find a way to start faster. That’s kind of a theme for the team, start faster,” Maye told reporters. “From there, just some throws I’d like to have back. I feel like I say that every game, but particularly ones where I feel like I had guys open. Down in the red zone, be better down in the red zone where it’s decision making on my part, accuracy or just in general. We’ve got to score touchdowns when we’re down in the red zone.”

Maye was largely on-target when his mechanics were sound, but that wasn’t always a given against the Raiders. The quarterback explained he rushed to deliver the ball at times, but that course-correcting will come down to falling back on what he learned this offseason.

“I think throughout training camp and over the summer, trying to get a grip on the offense, get a grip on the timing and the routes and how it ties up with my feet,” Maye said. “I think I was accurate and made some throws when my feet timed up with the routes and with the concept. So, I’ve just got to stay on my stuff throughout the week of not letting little things like that go to waste because I feel like when I’ve got a good base, turn my shoulder at it and let it rip, I’ve been on target. So, that’s just the main thing, and I feel good throwing it, so that’s what matters.”

Pass protection also dwindled due to a combination of poor execution, game flow, and clever adjustments, like moving Maxx Crosby to attack the Patriots’ rookies.

The Dolphins’ pass rush may have been quiet last week, but sleeping on their defensive front would be a mistake, particularly their edge rushers. If Maye can settle into the game more quickly, throw on time, and take what the defense gives him, he could have a career day against a pass defense that struggled defending short and deep.

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Taylor Kyles is the lead NFL Analyst for CLNS Media covering players, schemes, and tendencies through a New England Patriots-centric lens.

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