The Patriots’ second win since their bye week was a fitting reward for a group that’s shown incredible mental toughness and grit this season. Despite losing players and members of the coaching staff and being eliminated from playoff contention, New England has stayed the course and battled each week.
As awesome as it was seeing their hard work pay off, this rebound has created more questions than answers for the franchise’s future.
Entering the team’s matchup in Denver, it was widely assumed that the Patriots’ offseason would feature Bill Belichick’s firing and Bailey Zappe being replaced by Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Now, it’s possible another victory or two could shake up the complexion of the organization’s offseason plan.
Here are three burning questions following the Patriots’ 26-23 win against the Broncos and how I think things could play out over the next few weeks.
Should Bill Belichick Return in 2024?
Following the Patriots’ demoralizing loss in Germany, many assumed the team, whether intentionally or not, would lose out and lock up a top draft pick. This pessimism wasn’t unwarranted, as it was reported that the defeat prompted Robert Kraft’s decision to move on from Bill Belichick after the season, though that call wasn’t set in stone.
Anyone who knows the Patriots or Belichick knew they wouldn’t throw in the towel. But a streak of shaky coverage performances and abysmal quarterback play painted New England as the worst team outside of Carolina. If the future Hall of Fame coach had any hope of retaining his job with a respectable record post-bye week, it was looking razor thin.
Five games later, the Patriots have pulled off two road upsets (and came one chip-shot field goal miss from tying another) thanks to exceptional defense and a rejuvenated, if inconsistent, offense.
The decision to start Bailey Zappe, which I was skeptical of but ultimately understood, has lifted the offense from unwatchable to surprisingly functional. The offense is ultimately Bill O’Brien’s show, but this change wouldn’t have been possible without Belichick pulling the plug on the Mac Jones experiment.
More impressive than the Patriots’ newfound ability to score points has been its stingy defense. Losing Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez in Week 4 seemed like potentially devastating blows. The pass rush all but evaporated midseason without Judon, and J.C. Jackson gave up big plays regularly as Gonzalez’s fill-in before being shut down for the season due to mental health reasons. But the group has powered through thanks to key contributions from some unexpected places.
Christian Barmore has catapulted himself near the top of a loaded position with 2.5 months of dominant play. Jabrill Peppers has been one of the league’s best safeties in an increased role. He and fellow breakout defender Jahlani Tavai have combined to force turnovers at an almost comical rate. Anfernee Jennings emerged as an elite run defender after taking over for Judon on early downs, while Mack Wilson has gotten more pass-rushing opportunities and flashed off the edge. Even rookies Keion White and Marte Mapu, who have understandably struggled throughout their freshman campaigns, are playing their best ball of the season as the year nears its end.
The Tommy Devito-led Giants, imploding Chargers, and dysfunctional Steelers weren’t exactly a gauntlet. But the defense was shutting down some of the league’s best backs and keeping points off the board while going entire halves, if not more, without any help from its offense.
Stopping the run requires consistent effort and toughness, making it one of the first to fall when a group begins to lie down. In a clear sign that they haven’t thrown in the towel, New England has allowed 3.2 yards per carry this season, the fewest for any team since the 2014 Lions. They also rank first in both EPA per play allowed (explosiveness) and positive EPA rate allowed (consistency) and are the only defense with a missed tackle rate below 10%.
New England got burned at times by Andy Reid’s craftiness and the off-schedule magic of Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson but mostly kept both offenses in check. Their pass defense has been more competitive and allowed fewer big plays since the bye week thanks to an improved pass rush and more consistent tackling, though they struggled in the latter area at times in Denver.
So, given how resilient the Patriots have been since their letdown in Germany, should Belichick get another year to correct course?
If New England keeps things close against the Bills and beats the Jets, I think the Krafts should strongly consider retaining their head coach. Belichick deserves credit for retaining buy-in, keeping players motivated, and fielding one of the league’s most competitive and disciplined defenses in a long-lost season. He’s clearly still one of the league’s greatest defensive minds and evaluators, and the way players have galvanized around him can’t be overstated.
After Sunday night’s victory, David Andrews said the head coach’s refusal to quit has had “kind of a trickle-down effect,” on the rest of the team. The captain also told Belichick, “We tried to do it for you tonight,” as the two embraced in the post-game locker room. Following New England’s win in Pittsburgh, Peppers went out of his way to defend Belichick, saying he didn’t like the flack his coach had received and praising him for preparing the team well every week.
All of that said, the offense’s lack of talent and poor execution have been glaring issues since Tom Brady’s last season in New England, and I think that element of roster-building passed Belichick by years ago.
A subpar supporting cast turned Mac Jones into a shell of himself, and the offense has yet to put a full 60-minute performance on tape this season. Their injury luck has been brutal, but it’s exposed several misfires in player acquisition and development. O’Brien’s scheme could be more creative and adopt more modern principles to create space, but I think he can still coordinate a top-12 offense. New England has been one of the league’s most efficient Red Zone teams in limited trips, and there are flashes of brilliance in his game plans. But a coordinator is only as good as the players at his disposal, and O’Brien is low on firepower and trench stability.
The Patriots have also ranked towards the bottom of the league in special teams for two seasons despite rostering several players who don’t contribute on offense or defense. Part of this is due to the decline of veterans like Matthew Slater and Cody Davis, but even young stud Brenden Schooler has taken a step back.
If Belichick takes a big step back from the personnel side, especially when selecting offensive players, I’d be on board with the Patriots running it back and letting Belichick finish his career in Foxborough. I’d also like to see him evolve when it comes to keeping special teams aces. But that’s a massive if and one that could ultimately derail talks if/when both sides discuss the future this offseason.
Could Bailey Zappe Be the Answer at Quarterback?
As mentioned in the previous section, I wasn’t sold on Bailey Zappe when he was handed the reigns in Week 13. Mac Jones’ inability to protect the football or capitalize on big-play opportunities was exhausting, but Zappe’s lack of experience and summer struggles in O’Brien’s system weren’t reassuring.
The offense’s inability to score or consistently move the ball persisted in his first start, resulting in a 6-0 shutout. Zappe’s accuracy and decision-making were suspect, but he flashed better poise, aggressiveness, and ball security than his predecessor. He showed further growth in electric 1st half performances against the Steelers and Chiefs, snapping a three-game touchdown drought and resulting in some of New England’s best offensive tape of the season. Unfortunately, these hot starts were drowned out by 2nd halves full of turnover-worthy plays and bad decisions.
This collapse appeared to start early against the Broncos, with Zappe being strip-sacked on the game’s first play after trying to force a late pass. But in another display of growth, the quarterback wouldn’t commit another turnover-worthy play in the game and continued to thrive downfield.
Zappe completed all five of his deep pass attempts (20+ yards) for 137 yards and a touchdown, the most such completions and yards for a Patriots quarterback in any game this season. He only completed one of three intermediate throws, but his connection with Pharaoh Brown down the seam was an impressive throw into tight coverage, and one of his misfires looked like a miscommunication with Demario Douglas on New England’s first 3rd down. Beyond his downfield proficiency, Zappe’s ability to maneuver the pocket under pressure and make plays off-schedule, which occasionally flashed in his previous starts, was on full display against the Broncos.
Constant big hits caused Mac Jones to shrink under pressure, while a lack of faith in his receivers led to more conservative. But Zappe’s fresh legs and perspective have allowed him to succeed despite an even higher pressure rate, and as he put it in Sunday’s postgame presser, “I like my guys better than anyone else.”
Bill Belichick praised his quarterback’s improved play, telling The Greg Hill Show, “The quarterback position, the most important thing is ball security and protecting the team and not turning the ball over. That’s definitely gotten better for [Bailey]. He’s made some key plays on third down and made a couple explosive plays on balls down the field to different receivers.” Belichick also noted how well Zappe handled the pre-snap operation and crowd noise while on the road.
Zappe’s short accuracy is still shaky, and there are moments when he’s either too slow or too quick to get through his progressions, but those can be chalked up to inexperience. Bill O’Brien touched on this while speaking to reporters on Tuesday, saying, “[Bailey’z] calm. He’s poised. He’s got that. What he doesn’t have is experience; he’s gaining experience. You can not discount experience and what that means to your career — if you take advantage of it. That is something Zap has done a good job of.”
So, if Zappe continues to show signs of growth, and the Patriots win another game or two, could Zappe be a potential long-term answer under center?
There’s something to be said for Zappe’s influence in the team’s recent turnaround, and he seems to have won over the locker room with his moments of impressive play. Despite starting just four games, he’s responsible for two of the team’s three 100+ passer rating performances and over half of their deep completions. DeVante Parker looks like his old self after being a nonfactor for most of the season, while Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki are once again living up to their Red Zone potential.
That said, I don’t think New England can afford to pass up on a quarterback this April.
Caleb Williams, Drake Mate, and Jayden Daniels can take over games with their athleticism and playmaking ability, which Zappe’s limited skill set doesn’t allow him to do. Quarterback play is still about decision-making, accuracy, and leadership, and whoever starts for the Patriots next season will need much more help than Zappe has now. But being able to beat perfect coverage is a staple of the league’s best offenses, and not capitalizing on an opportunity to acquire such talent is flirting with future mediocrity.
A strong finish should allow Zappe to push for the top job next season. If he wins, New England will have two good players at a premium position with options down the road. If he proves to be a strictly backup-caliber player, the team has a proven young depth option behind the future face of the franchise.
Have the Patriots Jeopardized Their Draft Standing?
The Patriots seemed like a lock for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye entering this weekend, but their victory bumped them from #2 overall to pick #4. So, how much more can they slide with additional wins? And can they reclaim their prime positioning?
With the Raiders’ win over the Chiefs yesterday, the Patriots are locked into a top-nine pick. That will keep them in range to trade up for one of the top quarterback prospects, but competition would be steep with multiple quarterback-starved franchises in their neighborhood.
New England losing one of their final two games would guarantee a top-seven pick, but losing both games would lock them into the top four. They would likely win any tie with the 4-11 Commanders, who finish the season against the 49ers and Cowboys.
The Patriots should also win a tie-breaker with the 3-12 Cardinals, who close out against the Eagles and Seahawks, if Arizona wins another game, placing New England back at #2 overall.
