The Knicks remaining sidelined the Celtics nearly three weeks ago, and lost to the Pacers in nearly identical fashion, six games following back-to-back devastating defeats at home. Now, an unthinkable Indiana-Oklahoma City Finals begins on Thursday.
The series should entertain game-to-game even if it doesn’t go long. The Thunder enter as overwhelming favorites, the expected team in the matchup that probably should’ve been considered the prohibitive championship pick earlier this season and definitely should’ve been by the time the playoffs began.
Health and a generally favorable path have worked in their favor, always a must for a championship contender to prevail, but they’ve mostly just repeated their regular season dominance, overcame inexperienced mistakes early in the Nuggets series and dominated the grueling west. They finished the regular season with a +12.7 net rating, one of the second-best ever, and that only dipped to +11.2 into the playoffs.
The Pacers rode an offense that empowers everyone to the point whereΒ Pascal SiakamΒ andΒ Andrew NembhardΒ left the east finals with MVP cases, Siakam winning it in the same series whereΒ Tyrese HaliburtonΒ hit an all-time shot and pulled off one of the best playoff stat lines ever in Game 4 to secure a 3-1 series lead. Their defense rated 5.2 points per 100 possessions better than the Pacers who fell short in the east finals one year ago. They’ll have a chance to pull off the most unlikely championship runs in recent NBA history.
What lessons can the Celtics pull from these teams and the runs they had? Especially as they begin a roster reset that’ll involve critical team-building decisions…
- Both the Pacers and Thunder built their core through Paul George trades, a strange coincidence. Indiana acquired Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis from Oklahoma City for George, built a playoff team around them, then pivoted following Oladipo injuries and traded Sabonis for Tyrese Haliburton. It’s easy to say now that Haliburton, now one of the game’s great guards, fell into their lap. But they needed the foresight to trade Sabonis rather thanΒ Myles Turner, who was long available, and to build around Haliburton, who showed flashes in Sacramento that didn’t approach who he is now.
- The same goes forΒ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a throw-in alongside the Clippers’ 2022 (Jalen Williams), 2024Β (Dillon Jones) and a 2025 pick swap that moved Oklahoma City up to 24th overall in next month’s draft. The Clippers still owe the Thunder a 2026 first too. Yet Gilgeous-Alexander became the centerpiece of the trade by emerging into an NBA MVP. A result neither side could’ve forecasted despite high hopes on both sides. LA originally drafted Gilgeous-Alexander 11th overall in the 2018 draft.
- Those trade grand slams happened during a different era. TheΒ Kawhi LeonardΒ pressure reportedly placed on the Clippers to acquire George put the Thunder in a massive negotiating advantage during an era where buyers already proved willing to years of unprotected first-round picks. The last deal like that to happen was the Mikal BridgesΒ trade last summer, a cautionary tale that could spell the end of those blockbusters as cost-control and drafting prove critical against the second apron and higher tax penalties.
Lesson No. 1
The Celtics shedding a star, roster depth and the remaining draft capital they have for Giannis Antetokounmpo probably isn’t the path forward.
Lesson No. 2
Boston needs to at least consider accepting draft hauls, higher-end prospects and a one-year step back for stars Jaylen Brown,Β Derrick WhiteΒ and evenΒ Jayson Tatum. That said, while a brief tank set up this past decade of Celtics relevancy, the Brooklyn Nets did the tanking that led to the Brown and Tatum draft picks. The Clippers similarly set up the Thunder’s current core despite a two-year step back landing themΒ Chet Holmgren. The first season stepping back set up them drafting Josh Giddey, trading theΒ Alperen ΕengΓΌn pick (from theΒ Al Horford-Boston trade) andΒ Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.Β Aaron WigginsΒ came late in the second round. While Giddey and Wiggins became helpful contributors, they weren’t putting the team back on track to contention alone, nor was Holmgren.
Lesson No. 3
That’s the case for taking a hedged approach to the future, keeping Brown, who’s relatively young, while accepting a White deal that blows you away, or vice-versa. The Pacers also presented that argument. They never tanked willingly, competing behind Oladipo, Sabonis and Turner for three seasons before Oladipo’s injuries sunk them. That route required patience, three coaches in three season, some trade luck, Aaron Nesmith’sΒ emergence from theΒ Malcolm BrogdonΒ trade included, and two years outside of the playoffs. They pickedΒ Chris DuarteΒ andΒ Bennedict MathurinΒ in the lottery, decent selections that haven’t proven essential to their rise. Their ascent happened more naturally, sliding up from the middle of the east to the top this year as others slipped-up. They proved opportunistic.
Lesson No. 4
Then there’s the other element to the Pacers’ success. Coaching. Rick CarlisleΒ not only proved amicable to the style that best fit his roster, he built an offensive system that empoweredΒ Pascal SiakamΒ (another shrewd roster move after signingΒ Bruce BrownΒ to a big-money, short term deal) as much as Haliburton.Β Andrew NembhardΒ (a second round pick) nearly led the Pacers to two wins against the championship Celtics alongsideΒ TJ McConnell (a low-key summer, 2019 signing) last May with Haliburton out.Β Obi ToppinΒ (a Knicks salary dump),Β Ben SheppardΒ (late 2023 first round pick) and Mathurin also receive significant run, while the team further adapted to overcomeΒ James WisemanΒ andΒ Isaiah JacksonΒ injuries.Β Jarace Walker,Β Thomas BryantΒ andΒ Tony BradleyΒ played positive east finals minutes instead of tightening up the rotation.Β Joe MazzullaΒ will need to prove as adaptable, stylistically and lineup-wise, to sustain the Celtics into the era of depth over top-end stars. EvenΒ Tom ThibodeauΒ shifted to fresh legs off his bench inΒ Delon Wright,Β Landry ShametΒ andΒ Miles McBride to help staggerΒ Jalen BrunsonΒ andΒ Karl-Anthony Towns’Β minutes and nearly push the series to Game 7 after falling behind. Boston’s biggest regret will be not consistently tapping into its depth.
Lesson No. 5
Finally, there’ll be down years, almost certainly starting next year. But this new CBA is meant to be cyclical. The same mechanisms that could tear down Boston’s roster this summer could set up their next championship in the near future if they make some difficult sacrifices now. Getting stuck in the middle rarely leads to championship-level success, and despite Indiana’s heart-warming run, they’re up against it in the Finals against a franchise that more methodically built a potential dynasty. That’s if the Thunder’s roster can survive past Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren extension talks happening simultaneously this summer. That the NBA’s young power emerged in Oklahoma City, like it did in 2012, will make it lasting more difficult. The Thunder infamously traded James HardenΒ following their 2012 Finals loss to Miami.
