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Game Preview: How Patriots Can Sink Raiders in Week 1

The Patriots and Raiders kick off new eras on Sunday, but can Mike Vrabel's squad outlast Pete Carroll's trio of blue-chip talent?
Taylor KylesBy 8 Mins Read

The Mike Vrabel era officially begins this weekend as the Patriots host another revitalized organization in the Las Vegas Raiders.

Like Vrabel in New England, Raiders head coach Pete Carroll and partial-owner Tom Brady have brought credibility, energy, and toughness to a franchise that’s lost its way. With that new direction has come sweeping changes for both teams.

The Patriots’ roster overhaul is headlined by Super Bowl champions Milton Williams and Carlton Davis, four-time Pro Bowler/genetic anomaly Stefon Diggs, and a rookie class full of immediate starters.

Gunslinger Geno Smith and sixth-overall pick Ashton Jeanty add huge backfield upgrades to Vegas’ new-look offense. The unit is led by former Eagles and 49ers head coach Chip Kelly, who spent last season as a coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Vrabel’s alma mater, Ohio State. Kelly and Smith lack an elite wide receiver in the passing game, but they have a diverse arsenal led by All-Pro Brock Bowers.

“What terrific young skill players,” Vrabel said during his Wednesday press conference. “I mean, Brock Bowers plays like a wide receiver. He’s a willing blocker. Jeanty, powerful, fast, continues to move his feet after contact, breaks a lot of tackles. Speed on the outside, savviness with [Jakobi] Meyers. Big physical offensive line.”

Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels brought Meyers and defensive coordinator/former Patriots assistant Patrick Graham to Vegas by in 2022. K’Lavon Chaisson and Robert Spillane also played under Graham and alongside game-wrecker Maxx Crosby last season.

There will still be plenty of unknowns for New England, especially with a first-time defensive coordinator in Terrell Williams. So to combat potential overthinking, Vrabel is emphasizing simplicity.

“You don’t want to get too convoluted and just try to make sure that the players are seeing it the same way as we do after all the film and things that we think are going to be important this week,” Vrabel said. “Having been through it, it’s not like I want them to memorize and have to look down. I want them to understand how their play and their position, what they can do to help us execute those keys so it’s not just a blanketed, broad statement.”

Another area of emphasis has been second-half execution, with Vrabel noting 12 of last season’s Week 1 victors won the second half (New England was one outlier).

“We actually put a break in there midway through practice where we have two team periods left,” Vrabel explained. “I said, ‘You guys are going to think this is some gimmick, but it’s going to be me saying, ‘Hey, coaches, get together, tell them, ‘Listen, this is how practice started, whatever’s going on, let’s be conscious here to finish strong, win the second half, win the second half.’’ And I think it’s just a good reminder, and working on our conditioning.”

That effort must be led by sophomore captain and potential franchise quarterback Drake Maye. His arrow is pointing up, but Maye must prove he can close out games at the NFL level after struggling to do so as a rookie.

Outlasting Carroll’s Raiders will be a tall task team-wide, but following these game plan keys will be a great place to start.

Contain Brock Bowers

Bowers took the league by storm as a rookie, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown in catches. Vrabel is well aware of the danger Bowers presents, telling The Greg Hill Show the tight-end must be treated like a receiver while noting his special length, ability to maintain speed while tracking the ball, and positional versatility.

“They do a lot with him,” Vrabel said. “The full route tree — they’ll take shots to him. That’ll be an important matchup, and also just being able to know what he’s trying to do from the different locations they put him in.”

The challenge on early downs will be keeping eyes on Jeanty without letting Bowers sneak behind coverage. That could mean a heavy dose of Quarters, a flexible four-deep coverage that’s become a staple under Vrabel.

Safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson are plenty capable in man coverage, especially if Williams incorporates brackets, but Bowers’ rare change-of-direction and savvy are unique challenges one-on-one. 

With Christian Gonzalez likely out this week, Davis’ physicality and long arms could be the best solution to slowing the tight-end down. Safety-turned-linebacker Marte Mapu has also excelled in man with his length, range, and instincts.

While finding Bowers and covering him are strong starts, defenders must also be precise disrupting the catch-point and sound tackling to minimize big plays. All easier said than done, but Bowers can’t run wild if the Patriots want a fighting chance in this matchup.

Don’t Let Maxx Crosby Wreck the Game

The Raiders’ defense is anchored by its trenches, which feature underrated disruptors in edge rusher Malcolm Koonce, former Patriot Adam Butler, and versatile riser Tyree Wilson. But there’s no question the problems begin and end with Maxx Crosby.

The four-time Pro Bowler’s rare size and explosiveness make him a nightmare for any tackle, but his relentless motor makes him truly impossible to keep quiet for 60 minutes.

plays left defensive end, where he’ll test 34-year-old Morgan Moses‘ ability to counter speed, but he’ll cameo on the blindside to give Will Campbell a trial by fire. Wherever Crosby lines up, maintaining sound leverage and technique will be crucial to surviving the snap.

“I think if you drop your head, he’s going to jump around, and if you’re over aggressive, he’s going to try to make you miss,” Vrabel said of Crosby. “He has a very unique play style, where he’ll jab and and jump around, and he uses his length and athleticism as opposed to let’s say maybe more of a a power player. Not that he can’t do that, but he makes his money with instinctiveness and jumping under. If you overreach him, he’s coming under and he’s getting in the backfield.”

McDaniels knows Crosby well after coaching him in Vegas, and he showed respect for the edge rusher long before then. Maye’s mobility should also allow for more moving pockets, which weren’t as accessible under McDaniels’ former quarterbacks.

While McDaniels will do his part from scheme and play-calling perspectives, nothing beats a sound plan and a quick trigger. Maye’s off-schedule ability is special and will play a factor, but knowing when a play is dead will be key to avoiding unnecessary sacks and potential turnovers.

“I think it starts with me getting the ball out on time, not holding it,” Maye said. “Don’t bypass the first guy open. I see [someone] open, trying to hunt a deeper one. The running backs can help in the protection; I think little things like that. I think scheme, me just getting us in the right plays, knowing when he’s one-on-one and knowing when we have help to him. From there, just like I said, follow our keys and know if it’s the emphasis for us this week, then just follow that and stay true to it.”

Fortunately for Maye, finding somewhere to go with the ball shouldn’t be too steep a challenge.

Attack the Spine of the Defense

The Patriots’ wide receiver room has plenty left to prove, but the group pleasantly surprised this summer and offers a range of skill sets. Dynamic rookie TreVeyon Henderson also brings juice and versatility to the passing game.

Carroll’s defenses are consistently well-coached, but the Raiders may lack the talent to execute his vision. McDaniels has also thrived against Carroll’s Cover 3-heavy scheme, and Maye told reporters he’s studied Super Bowl XLIX and 2020’s matchup with Cam Newton in preparation for Sunday. Both games, but particularly the Super Bowl, featured quick throws attacking linebackers and nickel corners.

McDaniels used a similar plan in 2022 when his Raiders beat Carroll’s Seahawks 40-34. The road win centered heavily around running backs and tight ends exploiting mismatches down the spine of Seattle’s defense.

That’s bad news for the Raiders, whose linebackers look more comfortable working downhill than backward or side to side. Former Patriot Elandon Roberts, 31, allowed the 2nd-most yards per reception last season among linebackers with at least 15 targets. Germaine Pratt, 29, tied for the 3rd-most explosive grabs allowed at the position. Devin White, 27, is on his 4th team in three seasons.

This is a prime opportunity for Henderson to build on his electric preseason, as his versatility and home-run ability should overwhelm middle-field defenders on the ground and through the air.

DeMario Douglas and Stefon Diggs should also get opportunities to beat linebackers in space, while Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper will get big-play opportunities off play-action and in the red zone.

The Patriots’ passing game may take time to fully, especially with a nearly brand-new offensive front. But if New England can keep the Raiders’ defensive line in check, it should be a productive first outing for the offense.

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Taylor Kyles is the lead NFL Analyst for CLNS Media covering players, schemes, and tendencies through a New England Patriots-centric lens.

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