Celtics Draw Knicks Stressing That Regular Season Sweep Doesn’t Matter

Jalen Brunson shook Ausar Thompson in the final seconds of a tie game in Detroit, nailing a step-back three and stealing back a lead they squandered before the Pistons built a seven-point edge late in Game 6 on Thursday.

It capped a series where Brunson averaged 31.5 points per game while clearly playing through pain. Detroit held him to 43.6% shooting, beat him up and sent him to the free throw line 9.0 times per game, but Brunson hit his free throws, converted the crucial shots late in Game 6 and bought New York an extra rest day. They travel to Boston this weekend, still seeking their first win against the Celtics, Cavs and Thunder this season.

The second round series odds moved to Boston -1000 overnight after New York advanced. And few outside of Vegas will have much faith in the Knicks either after the Celtics mostly dominated four games against the Knicks by an average of 16.2 points per game. After Boston swept the season series in April, Joe Mazzulla and Derrick White downplayed the accomplishment, saying it means nothing in the playoffs.

“This is the playoffs. So everything we did in the regular season doesn’t really mean a whole lot now,” White said. “It’s not like we get to start up 1-0 or something like that. Just understand it’s the playoffs. They’re here for a reason, they’re a really good team and it’s gonna be a big challenge.”

A look back

The Knicks have a Jayson Tatum problem that’ll be difficult to overcome. He averaged 33.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG and 7.0 APG across four wins where he shot 53.5% from the field, 47.8% from three and 80% at the line (20-25). Tatum unleashed 8-of-11 three point shooting over the Knicks on banner night, and somehow surpassed those 37 points with 40 in the second meeting in February. Tatum’s ability to line up Brunson on switches and Karl-Anthony Towns through screening actions gave him multiple matchups to exploit across the 13th-ranked New York defense.

Jaylen Brown fared worse (39.3% FG) and reached his low playing through a nagging knee injury that limited him late in the regular season. It visibly bothered him during the east quarterfinals, and he returned to the injury report for the final three games after Game 2. Something to watch despite his overall success in the opening series. Derrick White shot 54.3% from three in the Knicks matchup. Kristaps Porziņģis played only two of the games, including the finale where he dropped 34 points, shot 8-for-13 from deep and buried the game-winner in overtime near the logo shooting over Brunson.

That many upticks in performance point toward the Celtics having few problems scoring on the Knicks, unlike last round when they uncharacteristically attempted 31.2 threes, turned the ball over 13 times and averaged 106.4 points per game. In the regular season, they posted 125 PPG, shot 50% FG, 48.3% 3PT and attempted 17.0 FT/G against New York.

Hope laid in the April finale for the Knicks, who held Boston to 104 in regulation in Mitchell Robinson’s only appearance against the Celtics before Tatum drained a game-tying three over OG Anunoby at the buzzer to force overtime. The Celtics shot 46% FG, 38.8% 3PT and turned the ball over 15 times in the eventual win — but New York sent them to the free throw line 25 times and still lost in overtime, 12-10. Mazzulla noted that the Knicks present a bigger offensive threat than the Magic did last round, New York scoring almost 10 more points per 100 possessions more than Orlando did during the regular season.

“Their offensive numbers are better, their ability to change defenses is good, they have two guys who can score at all three levels,” Mazzulla said. “They got role guys that can really impact the game, their defensive pressure is great and they the ability to impact the margins in a big way. So we have to be able to combat that with our physicality, our attention to detail, our execution.”

Jrue Holiday’s status still uncertain

Holiday remains day-to-day, Mazzulla said on Friday, with a right hamstring strain he went down with after Game 2 against Orlando for rest of that series. He’s now nine days removed from Game 2, and will be 12 days out on Monday when Game 1 tips off. That timeframe at least gives him a chance to return if he suffered a low-grade strain, though neither Mazzulla nor the Celtics have shared many specifics about the injury, including when and how he suffered it. Boston ruled Holiday out one day before Games 4-5 after he was a game time decision for Game 3. The Celtics won’t have to release an injury report until Sunday afternoon.

Boston will practice on Saturday, which could create some clarity surrounding his status based on whether or not he participated. The Celtics’ margin for error reduced drastically in the Orlando series once Holiday exited the lineup. Boston outscored the Magic by 19.2 points per 100 possessions with Holiday on the floor and won by only 4.9 points per 100 with him off. Tatum allowed Towns to shoot 9-for-16 during the regular season, and primarily covered Towns when he went off for 34 points and 14 rebounds in the April game.

Holiday limited him to 5-for-8 in three games, and gives the Celtics a different look at that position. He held Paolo Banchero to 2-for-10 shooting through the two games where Holiday primarily guarded Banchero in round one.  During the regular season, Holiday limited Brunson to 6-for-13 shooting, three assists and forced three turnovers in their 10 minutes against each other. That finished as Holiday’s sixth most-frequent matchup during the year. On offense, Holiday shot 18-for-27 from the field and 8-for-14 from three against the Knicks.

“He’s getting better every day,” Mazzulla said. “Doing whatever he can to make sure he puts himself in position to come back as fast as he can. He’s working hard.”

How will they stop the Knicks?

The Celtics’ defensive posture against the Knicks will determine how long the series goes. In the closer April game, Brunson broke free for 27 points and 10 assists, getting into his floater range and turning the ball over only twice. But the Celtics only sent him to the free throw line twice in the win, the key that night and in round one against the Magic in round one, who attempted 20.6 free throws per game against Boston after 23.0 throughout the year. The Knicks’ attempts dropped from 20.7 to 18.0 against the Celtics, headlined by Brunson falling from 6.9 attempts for the season to 4.5 in the Celtics matchups.

Towns fared decently against the Celtics, averaging 19.8 PPG and 12.0 RPG on 53.4% shooting and hitting 7-of-11 from three. But those averages fell below his full season splits, and most importantly, Towns only attempted 2.8 threes per game over Boston, down from his typical 4.7. The Celtics lured him into taking twos.

Anunoby (9.0 PPG, 29.6% FG) fared poorly offensively in the matchups, though he limited Brown and Tatum to a combined 6-for-25 on defense. Mikal Bridges shot 42.9% from the field, 31.8% from three and attempted one free throw as the Celtics mostly let him take mid-rangers. Boston might try to stashed Porziņģis on Bridges if Josh Hart, who shot 23-for-41 on twos (56% 2PT) can drive and score on him when he’s left alone outside.

Off the bench, Miles McBride shot 40% FG and 33.3% 3PT, missing open looks. Cam Payne played sparingly in round one, but hit his threes (3-7 3PT). Robinson’s minutes fluctuated, as his double-big pairing with Towns turned into a net negative (-4.9, 95.1 off. rating) through 40 minutes. But it’s an important defensive card for Tom Thibodeau to get to in order to keep Towns out of actions defensively.

During the regular season, they posted a 128 offensive rating (+9.2) together behind their 39.5 OREB%. They played five minutes against Boston, finishing with a 100 offensive and defensive rating (+0). It’s the one wrinkle that the Knicks could utilize to close the obvious gap between them and Boston entering the season.

In the margins, Boston won the shooting battle (61.7-53.2 eFG%), grabbed more offensive rebounds (28.6-26.2 OREB%) and committed fewer turnovers (10.9-11.2 TOV%) while the Knicks carved out a small win in free throw attempt rate (20.3-19.0%). The biggest disparity I see here is the three-point differential. New York puts two on the ball, which opens up the Celtics’ drive-and-kick and shooting games that weren’t there in the last series.

The Magic could limit Boston’s threes to close the gap. New York shot only 32.0 threes per game against the Celtics and allowed 48.3. Despite that and an indefensible decision by Thibodeau to not foul ahead by three in regulation last month before Tatum tied the game, Mazzulla showed respect to his rival on the opposing sideline.

“Great coach, great depth, great team,” Mazzulla said. “You see what they’ve been able to do over the course of the season and in the playoffs thus far with their 2 guys, but also the way the others are able to impact the game. It’ll be a physical series, it’ll come down to the margins. You have to be able to defend without fouling, rebound, taking care of the ball, execute and be able to get to different stuff defensively because of their ability to put pressure on the rim and get great shots.”