The Boston Celtics battle the Miami Heat in a win or go home Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston played easily their most uninspired, effortless game of the season on Sunday night, showing no resistance to the Heat’s tough defense and onslaught of scoring. They’re now down 3-0 in the series. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Heat are 1.5-point favorites.
Spread: Miami Heat -1.5
O/U: 216.5 points
ML: Heat -118, Celtics +100
Injury Reports
After pulling up awkwardly on a 1st quarter jump shot, Kevin Love exited Game 3 with a lower leg injury. Though he didn’t return, the Heat have appeared to dodge a bullet. Erik Spoelstra told press yesterday morning that Love would be probable for tonight’s game. Tyler Herro (hand) and Victor Oladipo (knee) are still out.
On the Boston side, there are no new injuries. Danilo Gallinari (ACL) is the only Celtic out for Game 4.
Celtics Projected Starters
PG: Marcus Smart
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Robert Williams III
Heat Projected Starters
PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Max Strus
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Kevin Love
C: Bam Adebayo
Boston Celtics Overview
The Celtics had two opportunities to make this a series, and now they’re staring down a deficit no team in NBA history has come back from. Boston embarrassed themselves with a total lack of effort and toughness in Game 3. There are countless areas where they need improvement (if they even want to put up a fight), and it all starts with withstanding Miami scoring runs. In Games 1 and 2, Boston struck first, but in Game 3, Miami put their stamp on the game early with a 9-2 run to end the 1st quarter. The Celtics proceeded to let them pile on even more, and Al Horford after the game said that those runs did affect the team. The Heat have shown they can weather the storm, now the Celtics have to or else their season is dead.
That starts with tightening up the defense. Joe Mazzulla after halftime said their goal was to guard the three point line and stop the Heat’s transition offense — two things they did terribly throughout the night. The Celtics gave up 16 points off turnovers, 13 points off fast breaks, and 19 threes total, 8 of which were considered wide open. Boston’s defense has been poor, but putting in a little more effort contesting these possessions may finally spark something positive tonight, even if it’s too late in the series to mount a comeback.
Miami Heat Overview
The Heat were in control for practically the entire night, and once again, a new player stepped up for a career night. Gabe Vincent has made a name for himself these Playoffs, averaging 12.9 points per game, 4.1 assists, and 1 steal while knocking down some clutch buckets in each round so far. Sunday night was his masterpiece, scoring 29 points on 78.6% shooting with 3 assists and a block. With Kyle Lowry getting older and Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo out, Vincent’s offensive production has been a godsend for Miami. When him and the rest of Miami’s peripheral players are rolling, stopping the Miami Heat becomes immensely difficult.
It’s also difficult to stop Miami because their two best players know exactly when to defer. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have led the Heat with some heroic performances this postseason, but in Game 3, they were the 4th and 5th highest scorers on Miami respectively. Still, they were the catalysts to the team’s offensive explosion, collapsing the entire Celtics’ defense and kicking out to open shooters whenever extra help came. Butler in particular has been great at this since his ankle injury in Game 1 of the second round, and has gotten his teammates going while minimizing turnovers. Miami in the regular season relied on their defense to win, but now, they’ve proven they have a dynamic team offense to pair with it.
Prediction
Midway through the 2nd quarter, the Celtics gave up on the season. Tonight, even if they hit more shots tonight and play better defense, their ability to win fully depends on how the Heat play. If they look complacent, Boston has a chance. If they don’t, this series will be over tonight. Judging by how they’ve played not just in this series, but the entire postseason, the Heat are the furthest thing from complacent. I think they finish off the Celtics tonight and advance to the NBA Finals.
