The Boston Celtics (49-23, 37-34-1 ATS) conclude their six-game road trip in California’s capital against the Sacramento Kings (43-28, 40-31 ATS). Boston is 3-2 in their last five while Sacramento has won six of their last eight. Both teams are coming off a road loss to the Utah jazz, and both teams met earlier this season in Boston, where the Celtics defeated the Kings 122-104. According to online sportsbook FanDuel, the Celtics are 4.5-point favorites.
Point Spread: Boston Celtics -4.5
O/U: 239.5 points
ML: Celtics -188, Kings +158
Robert Williams III (hamstring) is finally off the injury report, and should return to the starting lineup. Williams III missed over a week prior to tonight. Payton Pritchard (heel) is still out. He will be missing his seventh straight game.
For the Kings, Kevin Huerter (knee) missed the last two games. It’s unclear whether or not he’ll be activated tonight. If he sits again, expect Kessler Edwards to get the start at SG.
PG: Marcus Smart
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Robert Williams III
PG: De’Aaron Fox
SG: Kessler Edwards
SF: Keegan Murray
PF: Harrison Barnes
C: Domantas Sabonis
The C’s blew yet another double digit lead against Utah on Saturday, a scene that’s become a regular part of the Boston Celtics Experience rather than an occasional aberration. Part of why this happens is how badly they can get beat on the glass, especially in the 4th quarter. The Jazz out rebounded Boston 14-8 in the 4th, four of those boards coming on the offensive end. On paper, the Kings are a terrible rebounding team, but they’ve shown the ability to reverse trend, like in Thursday’s game against Brooklyn where they picked up 16 more boards than the Nets. With Robert Williams III back, the Celtics will look to re-establish a strong presence on the glass.
The Kings also greatly struggle at protecting the paint and defending the three. Sacramento is the 6th worst team in the league in opponent three-point percentage, and gives up the 4th most points-per-game in the paint. This bodes well for the Celtics, to say the least. Although Boston sticks hard to shooting threes, even when they aren’t falling, they are solid at overexposing teams that can’t guard the perimeter by driving hard off the line towards the hoop. As long as the Celtics don’t fall in love with pull-up jumpers, this should be a less stagnant game on the offensive end.
The Kings are the story of the NBA, recently clinching their first winning season in 17 years. Sitting at third in the West, their success is no fluke, and it’s mostly due to their ballistic offensive attack. Led by De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, the Kings as a team rank top three in field goal percentage and assists, and lead the league in points-per-game. They get solid contributions up and down the roster, and can rely on their bench to pick up the slack when their two stars are off the floor. The Kings’ second unit can score quick and shoot with high efficiency, ranking first in effective field goal percentage. If this game is a duel between the multiple All-Stars on each team many are hoping for, the Kings may have an edge over Boston with their consistent bench play.
Sacramento also excels in the clutch. When the game gets down to the wire, the Kings are tied for 4th with 24 wins and are 1st with 11.8 clutch points-per-game. De’Aaron Fox in particular has been devastating to opponents in these situations. With 5.5 points-per-game on 58.8% shooting from the field, he is many people’s favorite to win the inaugural Jerry West Clutch Player of the Year Award. Stacked up against Boston’s major issues closing games out, the Kings should, at the very least, make this one a nail-biter late for Celtics fans staying up to watch this one.
Throughout this funk for Boston, whenever they’ve lost, they’ve typically self-corrected enough for a rebound win the next time out. Against this Kings team, it will be much tougher. Sacramento is playing its best ball of the season, and is just a few games away from clinching a playoff berth. On top of that, this is the final game of a long, strangely designed road trip for the Celtics, so there’s a good chance they look lethargic during parts of the game, something you can ill-afford against this offense. I think the Celtics will put up points, but I ultimately think Sacramento will come away victorious.
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