The Boston Celtics (47-22, 36-32-1 ATS) are in Minnesota tonight to battle the Timberwolves (35-34, 33-36 ATS). The Celtics are coming off one of the most embarrassing losses of the season on Monday against the Houston Rockets, while Minnesota most recently took down the Atlanta Hawks on the road. These teams met once earlier this season on December 23, a game that the Celtics won by 12. According to online sports book FanDuel, the Celtics are 5-point favorites.
Point Spread: Boston Celtics -5
O/U: 233.5 points
ML: Celtics -215, Timberwolves +180
Injury Reports
Robert Williams III (hamstring) will miss yet another game for the C’s. He’s with the team on the road trip, signaling a return in the near future, but it’s unclear when that will be. Payton Pritchard (heel) will also sit tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) is getting closer and closer to a return, but won’t be ready for tonight’s matchup. He’s been sidelined since late November. Rudy Gobert (ankle), Jaylen Nowell (knee), Naz Reid (calf), and Austin Rivers (back) are all questionable to play.
Celtics Projected Starters
PG: Marcus Smart
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Derrick White
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Al Horford
Timberwolves Projected Starters
PG: Mike Conley
SG: Anthony Edwards
SF: Kyle Anderson
PF: Jaden McDaniels
C: Rudy Gobert
Boston Celtics Overview
Boston needs Robert Williams III back for a number of reasons, but this is a game where they may be best suited going small. Rudy Gobert, though having a down year for his standards, is still one of the most feared rim protectors in the league. However, when teams draw him away from the rim, his impact on defense decreases. In their game last week against the 76ers, they ended up switching Kyle Anderson onto Joel Embiid because Gobert was getting burnt so bad on pick and pops. Even if the Celtics have another down shooting night, with Al Horford spacing the floor, the Celtics can effectively lure Gobert away from the basket and drive downhill, one of the few things they did well as a team on Monday.
Just like on Monday, the Celtics are going to see a lot of iso-ball coming their way on defense. Unlike Houston, the Timberwolves operate fairly decently out of those sets, with a team FG% of 44.1% on iso plays. However, just like Houston, they turn the ball over a lot, averaging 15.6 a game, and give up a ton of points off turnovers. If Boston can get active defensively, something they failed to do beyond the first quarter on Monday, they can play with pace and get some easy buckets to ease into tonight’s game.
Minnesota Timberwolves Overview
The Timberwolves made a big trade at the deadline, bringing in Mike Conley and Nickeil Alexander-Walker from the Jazz. The team’s play hasn’t taken a big step up since the deal, but reuniting Rudy Gobert with his former PG in Utah has unlocked the big man on the offensive end. The pick-and-roll in particular is running much smoother with Conley running the show compared to D’Angelo Russell, and they went to that play again and again on Monday night. If Boston does go small, the Wolves can make them pay in the paint if Gobert is healthy.
A big problem all season has been defending the three. Minnesota gives up the 12th most attempts per game. They also rank 24th in opponent three-point percentage at 37.1 and 22nd in opponent makes per game at 12.7. There’s no need to drone on about how inconsistent the Celtics are shooting the three, but essentially, the Timberwolves can catch a huge break depending on which version of the Celtics show up. If the three isn’t falling and Boston rigidly sticks to it, as the C’s have shown they love to do, Minnesota can worry less about their struggles on the defensive end.
Prediction
It’s hard to know now what you’re getting from the Celtics game to game, but that statement is even more applicable to Minnesota. The Timberwolves are the epitome of inconsistent, hovering around .500 all season and maintaining a win-one-lose-one pattern maddening to their fans. There’s a good chance they come back down after their win against the Hawks. Meanwhile, Boston should be extra motivated after the horrendous game on Monday, and this is a game they should win given how much better they are. I’m sticking with Boston, but I’m not expecting a resounding victory either.
Boston Celtics 108, Minnesota Timberwolves 104
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