Celtics vs 76ers NBA Playoff Series Preview and Predictions

BOSTON — The Celtics sat Jaylen Brown and Robert Williams III during a brief trip to Philadelphia in early April, an opportunity to sweep the 76ers in the season series and further solidify their standing above the Sixers at No. 2. They barely stood alive in the race for the east’s top seed, Boston recently dropped a stunning road game at the Wizards that hindered their ability to claim home court advantage, despite blasting the Bucks one day later. Shrugging their fall from the top off, they entered management mode ahead of the playoffs.

That’s why Joel Embiid lined up Grant Williams throughout his charge to 52 points, 13 rebounds and six assists on 20-for-25 shooting, a flawless performance Bob Ryan called one of the best he’d seen in 59 years around the league. Doc Rivers called it the clincher for his MVP candidacy.

It earned Philadelphia a two-point win.

That’s the hill the 76ers stood to climb with Embiid available. One month later, Rivers gave daily updates indicating little progress by Embiid from a right LCL sprain suffered in Game 3 against the Nets 11 days prior to the start of round two. The big man took the floor for the first time on Sunday, only shooting without running before appearing on the Sixers injury report as doubtful. He only shot from a stationary position on Monday morning at shootaround.

A return for Game 1 seems impossible. For Game 2 on Wednesday, when he would likely receive the MVP trophy after Tuesday’s announcement, a long shot. Fanduel’s shift to -560 odds that Boston wins the series raised legitimate questions alongside Shams Charania’s reporting of whether he’ll play all series. Game 3 is on Friday.

While the least relevant of the four games Boston and Philadelphia played to what we’ll watch from the Celtics’ perspective, the final one featured Boston runs with Embiid off the floor allowing them to compete on one of the best nights of his career. A fully available 76ers team outside of its centerpiece shot 19-for-53 (35.9% FG) and Boston went on a 13-7 second quarter run, playing its three guards together, and a 12-5 fourth quarter swing with Embiid on the bench. The Sixers shot 5-for-18 during those sequences and Rivers rushed Embiid back in each time on a night where Malcolm Brogdon, Sam Hauser and Grant Williams manned the second unit.

That’s why James Harden finished -4 on a night where the 76ers outscored the Celtics by 17 in Embiid’s minutes. An unstoppable effort by Embiid that should’ve yielded a blowout win turned into a terrifying final 10 seconds where Marcus Smart generated five points driving, scoring, missing the and-one on purpose and finding Derrick White for three. Boston only lost the final Embiid sequence by four points, and his offensive foul on the Sixers’ final possession gave Jayson Tatum a look at a game-tying two before the buzzer.

The 76ers scored 6.2 more points per 100 possessions and allowed 4.7 fewer on defense with Embiid on the floor this season, a 10.9-point difference according to Cleaning the Glass that stood in the 95th percentile of all NBA players this year. Harden’s splits amounted to a +4.8 difference, and P.J. Tucker, Paul Reed and Montrezl Harrell, the team’s depth behind Embiid inside, of course netted negative ratings compared to time almost entirely logged by Embiid at center while they sat.

Some hope exists that Reed, who boosted the team’s offensive rebounding percentage by 7.1 points compared to the 76ers’ other options inside, including Embiid, can roll, defend and rebound well enough in big minutes. He helped close out the Philadelphia series with 10 points, 15 rebounds, one steal and a block in Game 4.

“They play a little bit faster,” Joe Mazzulla told CLNS Media at practice. “Each guy’s more aggressive. I think they’re more empowered, whether it’s Harden, whether it’s Maxey, whether it’s Harris. They’re looking to affect the game in different ways, and they play a little bit of a different pace. (We’re) definitely paying attention to some of those games, some of their play call frequencies and what their identity is as a team when (Embiid’s) not in.”

Philadelphia finished 12-5 this season without Embiid, including that series finale over Brooklyn, after falling to 28-32 over the prior three seasons. Maxey scored at least 26 points in all but three of those matchups when he played. Tobias Harris and Shake Milton led the Sixers’ offense during a 3-1 stretch in November where Embiid, Maxey and Harden all sat. One win came against a Nets team also resting starters in game 82, and their 118.7 defensive rating while Embiid sat would’ve ranked 29th among NBA teams this season.

The big man’s importance to the 76ers’ No. 8 defense speaks for itself. Embiid blocked 1.7 shots per game this year, opponents shot 47.8% when guarded by him and he contested 9.7 shots per game. Reed, for what it’s worth, recorded 0.7 steals and blocks per game in 10 minutes per night, which would forecast over two each over 36, while opponents shot 41.7% against him.

Reed shot 61.1%, averaging 6.0 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.0 block in 13 minutes per game over his final 27 regular season appearances this season. His rolls, which actually reach the basket, make for a fun change of pace from Harden hitting Embiid in the high post into an isolation. Awkwardness also showed playing off Harden.

“Defensively, I think everybody guards a little bit better. They don’t have a 7-1 guy waiting at the rim, and then offensively, I think the ball moves more,” Brogdon noticed at Celtics practice. “Everyone’s more aggressive and more confident.”

Reed can at least manage the center position. Stars need to step up to win games in Embiid’s place. Harden shot 34.3% against the Nets in the first round, hitting his threes while averaging 8.8 APG and 2.8 free throws per game. He finished the final 10 games of the regular season at 39.9% FG, serving 9.9 APG and scoring 16.4 PPG.

The points need to come from somewhere else. Tobias Harris hit 57.1% from three in round one, largely due to Embiid’s gravity drawing Brooklyn double teams. His focus turned toward the rim, hitting 9-of-15 on two-pointers in Game 4.

Maxey and Harden finished the clincher 10-for-38 while De’Anthony Melton’s three triples off the bench proved crucial on a night where Philadelphia shot only 24 threes. That won’t cut it against a Boston team that averaged 39 attempts in round one. The Celtics shot 48% of their field goal attempts from deep during the regular season, compared to 38% for the Sixers. Embiid’s 48.7% mid-range shooting made up for many of those points.

Only Harden averaged one mid-ranger per game on the roster other than Embiid. Embiid and Maxey did nearly all of the team’s scoring at the rim, where Harden averaged only 3.1 attempts per game. He tried only three against Boston in April.

Harden doubled that in Game 4, finishing 1-for-6 in the restricted zone and 2-for-13 in the paint before lining up against Al Horford’s drop and Williams III, who can help away from Tucker if Mazzulla decides to go double-big in this series. Going small works too, with the three guards, making it harder for Maxey to hide against the Celtics’ mismatch-targeting offense. He averaged 10.0 PPG on 35.4% shooting against the Celtics, fouling 15 times.

With an offense averaging 112.2 points per 100 possessions with Maxey playing well in the aggregate, it’s hard to imagine the 76ers winning a game in this series without Embiid unless Boston is complicit. Philadelphia averaged 89.2 points per 100 possessions while Embiid sat in the four-game series between the teams.

That’s why he’s the MVP.

“We have so many guys that are confident in their play, and then we have bigs like Paul Reed and Trez and (Dwayne Dedmon), and the PJ Tucker, who can play five,” Maxey told CLNS at shootaround. “Then on the defensive end, we know what we have to do, we have to be more scrappy, more aggressive and put more pressure on them, because we don’t have that safety net at the rim in Joel Embiid.”

Bobby’s pick: Celtics in 4 

Jimmy Toscano: Celtics in 6 

A healthy Embiid makes this go 7 games. You’d think an injured Embiid would make it an easy sweep – in fact I’m pretty sure my good friend Bobby Manning has predicted that. But I still have trust issues with this Celtics team and their tendency to disappear at times, especially when the opposing team’s star is out of the picture.

In the end the Celtics are too talented to allow an Embiid-at-50-percent Sixers team advance. But I still see the C’s giving away a couple games. What I would love to see this series is consistency from Robert Williams, better shooting from Tatum, and an 8th man emerge from the rubble. Give me Celtics in 6 games, and if I’m wrong and they do it sooner, I’ll be feeling much better about their chances on Banner 18.

A. Sherrod Blakely: Celtics in 5

The Celtics will look to continue their dominance over the Philadelphia 76ers. Several factors will come into play, none bigger than the health of Joel Embiid, whose status for Game 1 remains uncertain. What’s very clear in this series, is Boston’s desire to pick up where they left off in their close-out win against Atlanta. While they made a number of big shots down the stretch, it was their defense that controlled the action by forcing Atlanta to miss eight of its 10 shot attempts over the final five minutes of play.

While Derrick White was the third member of Boston’s Big Three against the Hawks, look for Boston’s Al Horford, Robert Williams, and Grant Williams to be difference-maker in this series. Limiting Embiid’s impact will be a major point of emphasis in this series; that and trying to continue to ways to get Jayson Tatum going. Boston’s depth combined with Embiid’s health issues will end this series quickly.

John Zannis: Celtics in 7

I can’t decide if getting pushed to 6 by the Atlanta Hawks was good for the Celtics to get battle tested early in the playoffs or a reminder that at any given time they can revert back into the worst version of themselves. Despite what Boston said about the quality of their first round opponent after the series, reality is the Celtics should have handled the Hawks MUCH more easily than they did.

Now….the Celtics face a 76ers team they’ve had success against in the past, who will likely be without Joel Embiid for a game or 2. Cakewalk, right? Well there’s the rub. The Celtics have a penchant for playing down to their opponent. I see them dropping 1 of the first 2 games at the Garden and then have Embiid return for Game 3 in Philly and then it’s on for real.

I still think the Celtics get past the 76ers and ultimately ending up advancing to the NBA Finals but they’re going to make it much harder on themselves than necessary because, well, that’s just what they do.

Josue Pavon: Celtics in 5 

For 43 minutes, the Atlanta Hawks were on pace to force a Game 7 in Boston’s opening-round best-of-7 series before the Celtics remembered they were significantly better than their opponent and went on an 11-0 game-clinching run. In their semifinal series against the Sixers, we’ll find out if the Celtics truly did learn their lesson in not taking any opponent lightly, but history has proven otherwise.