Celtics vs Nets NBA Playoffs Series Preview

The Celtics will begin the NBA Playoffs against the Brooklyn Nets at 3:30 EST on Sunday, a clash between two of the hottest offenses in the league during the final quarter of the season, star perimeter scorers and an untraditionally small talent gap between the No. 2 and No. 7 seeds in a conference.

The question that’s hard to grasp is are these two teams who their records say they are? A Kevin Durant knee injury cost him 21 games, Kyrie Irving’s part-time status through Mar. 23 (and complete absence through Jan. 5) and the midseason fallout of the James Harden injury and trade led to losses in 17-of-20, sinking Brooklyn from the top to the bottom of the conference. The Celtics, by contrast, won 28-of-35 to close the season after an 18-21 start, rising from No. 11 in early January to No. 2 on the final day of the season — a controversial decision when they had the option to lose and fall to No. 4 against Toronto.

The Nets’ late-season recovery continued with a 40-point bruising of the Cavaliers in Brooklyn on Tuesday to officially secure the No. 2 seed. Irving hit his first 12 shot attempts, the hottest start to a game in his NBA career, on his way to 34 points and 12 assists. Durant added 25 points and Bruce Brown scored 18 points with nine rebounds and eight assists. A sign that a two-headed monster is uplifting its supporting cast, with the return of a forgotten star in Ben Simmons looming. Brian Windhorst became the latest reporter to give his assessment of Simmons’ timeline, reporting on ESPN Thursday that the Nets star could play as early as Game 4.

Scary? That might not be the right word. Brooklyn’s flaws are many, and they are who their record says they are in many ways. They ranked No. 20 in defense (112.3 points per 100 possessions), turn the ball over at a high rate (14.1%), faced chemistry issues throughout the year and are nursing two significant injuries between Simmons’ back and Seth Curry’s left ankle. Curry scored 0 points in 33 minutes in the play-in game.

The rest of the Nets’ lineup has heated up though, ranked No. 9 in offense since Irving rejoined the team on Jan. 5 and No. 3 since Durant recovered on Mar. 3 (119.9 points per 100 possessions). Since then, Durant has averaged 31.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 7.6 APG on 51.6% shooting and 40% from three. Irving added 30 PPG, 3.9 RPG and 6.2 APG on 47.9% shooting. Brown, benched in early January, reassumed his short roll passing and scoring position on offense that propelled him to the starting unit last season. He’s averaging 14.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.3 SPG and 1.1 BPG on 53.4% shooting since the team assumed its current form at the deadline.

Boston’s offense doesn’t receive its due in conversations about this series though. They’ve shot 39% from three since the trade deadline, assisted on 64.2% of their baskets (6th) and scored 4.8 points per 100 possessions more than Brooklyn over the Celtics’ final 26 games. Boston ranked No. 1 in offense over that stretch. Tatum averaged 30.0 PPG with 5.0 APG with Jaylen Brown (37.8%), Al Horford (44.2%) and Payton Pritchard (45.5%) all catching fire from three. Marcus Smart remained steady at 35.6% from deep while Tatum finished the season shooting over 65% at the basket.

The Nets will almost certainly double Tatum and force others to beat them, that’s where the growth he achieved playing off Brown comes into play. Brown closed the year finishing sets closer to the basket, averaging 24.8 PPG on 50.5% shooting over his last 16 games. He then stepped outside and flashed his pull-up three off the dribble resembling Harden. The Celtics will miss Robert Williams III until the final games of the series at the earliest, according to Adrian Wojnarowski, but Daniel Theis has proven to be a capable screen setter, finisher in the pick-and-roll and someone who can attempt some threes.

Boston won’t have trouble scoring and may even be in their comfort zone attacking smaller guards in mismatches and getting downhill repeatedly against a suspect Nets perimeter defense. Durant will have a heavy burden on that end too, protecting the rim and guarding Tatum some. The Nets will probably try to take Tatum off the ball, but the Celtics scored an excellent 1.18 points per possession when Tatum got doubled this season. Durant thrived on the way to 1.16, which is why Boston will prefer to double him as sparsely as possible.

Ime Udoka’s first plan will be to switch everything on defense, with Theis in an off-ball role similar to the one Williams III played guarding Brown the last time these teams faced. The Celtics want to take away Brown’s short roll game, Curry’s shooting and Andre Drummond’s interior scoring. That’ll leave the entire scoring burden on Durant and Irving. There’s a chance they’re both pushing 40 points in each game, and that’s where Udoka admitted he’ll face his biggest dilemma if the Celtics are still ahead. Does he adjust and try to slow them down, or sit content with letting them get theirs?

“The battle that coaches always come up with is if a guy’s really going off, but you’re maintaining that six, seven, eight point lead,” Udoka said Saturday. “You’re winning the game, but a guy is doing his thing and you’re trying to figure out when to go after him, but you’re doing well enough to keep the lead. That’s always a back-and-forth as far as that. Like I said, whether it’s been Luka or Trae Young or different guys throughout the season, I think us mixing up matchups, first of all, and then giving them different looks to try keep them off balance, because guys get in a rhythm way too easily in this league. They see something one thing, they adjust to it, as well as coaches. With us, it’s always finding that balance of if they’re making tough shots, that’s something you’re just going to have to live with, but overall if you’re maintaining that lead that’s the balance you have to struggle with a little bit there. We’ll figure it out as far as that. We did some things late game against them in game four against Durant to take it out of his hands and it worked well. So we have that in our back pocket.”

While Theis can be a capable fill-in for Williams III, the Celtics’ plan to switch everything will line him up against Durant and Irving in isolation often. He’ll need to control his fouling to at least stay in games, which he did, averaging 2.6 per game over his final 13 appearances. Grant Williams could prove to be a more natural fit switching to the perimeter, but Theis’ size advantage and the team’s desire to shrink the court and remain versatile across matchups should keep him in the starting lineup unless he can’t guard at all. Udoka pressed Theis to be more decisive in his decision-making defensively late in the year. On Saturday, Udoka teased defensive packages the team rarely played in all season as a possible adjustment later in the series.

“They’ve found a good spot. When teams try to double team Kyrie and KD, they can find him in the paint kind of like how Golden State uses Draymond with handoffs and attacking floaters and finding the big,” Theis told CLNS Media. “Obviously Kyrie and KD get a lot of the attention, but also we have a lot of great defenders, long wings that we can guard one-on-one (with). We don’t have to go double team that many times or that quick in the game. So we take away his ability to play in the middle of the zone when we trap the pick-and-rolls. Other teams, like Cleveland did, gave up four, five lobs. Just Bruce Brown just lobbing it up to the rim. Defensively, we have so many guys who can guard one-on-one. That’s what we’re going to do, take pride and it’s playoffs. You can’t just go double team from the first second. They expect it. To double team KD, it’s not easy. That’s a seven-footer, so we’re going to guard one-on-one.”

The benches don’t project to play a major role in the series. Patty Mills and Goran Dragic struggled late in the season and immediately become defensive liabilities for the Nets. Brooklyn also struggled to play LaMarcus Aldridge the last time these teams faced and didn’t play on Tuesday. Nic Claxton gives the team some decent rim protection minutes, but he remains inconsistent.

Boston’s second unit has a clear advantage. Derrick White caught fire late in the season as a shot maker and his quick decisions continued to spur the Celtics’ offensive ascension. He’s another player who can guard Irving and switch across the perimeter. With many clutch time finishes inevitable in this series, his ability to play next to Smart in smaller lineups will swing games for the Celtics. Udoka chose between White and Grant as the fifth player in Boston’s closing lineups in their sparse close games late in the year, while Theis lingers as a third option in those spots.

The Celtics went 7-8 in clutch finishes after the new year and got outscored by 6.9 points per 100 possessions. They shot a horrid 40.9 eFG% and their assist rate dropped to 55.3%. It stands as their biggest concern if they want to compete for a championship. Boston, instead, built massive margins and even late in the season blew out the Wizards and Bulls, while competing short-handed with the Bucks until the final buzzer on the road.

They’re playing fantastic basketball, and even the looming return of Ben Simmons plays into what’s become a flailing Nets group outside of their two stars. Can the team effectively integrate a star coming off a disastrous postseason, last playing one year ago, in the early stages of his conditioning after a back surgery and never having played with this team before? There’s a chance it only hurts Brooklyn, but they may have no choice as they try to bolster their defense.

A dose of Bruce Brown trash talk fired up the series early last week. Jaylen, Horford and Theis took it in stride, saying they’ll respond on the court. Udoka responded more forcefully, and implored his team to set the early tone in the series today. It comes down to elite offense against great defense, he said all week. They want to punch first.

“They think it’s attack time because Rob is out,” Udoka said. “Obviously we’ve played in quite a few games without him now and have done well enough beating some good teams.”

Bobby Manning’s 2022 NBA Awards ballot 

MVP 

1. Nikola Jokic 

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo 

3. Joel Embiid 

4. Jayson Tatum 

5. Devin Booker 

Jokic’s case standing apart from two outstanding resumes from Antetokounmpo and Embiid alone speaks to how high of a level he had to rise to this season. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. didn’t play. Denver was 19.5 points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the floor compared to off, as he topped his production from last season’s MVP campaign with 2,000 points (27.1 PPG), 1,000 rebounds (13.8 RPG) and 7.9 APG (500 assists) with 58.3% shooting. He did that with Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green and Bones Hyland as some of his steadiest contributors. Jokic played 74 games and helped damaged Denver win 48 games and secured the No. 6 seed ahead of the lurking Timberwolves above the play-in tournament line. Antetokounmpo and Embiid arguably had better seasons in some ways, but while accounting Jokic’s defensive strides to anchor a league-average unit, no player had more value to their team in 2021-22. There’s no knock for the runner-ups falling behind his astonishing production. There were stretches, even back-to-back games, from Jokic that made your jaw drop and this outcome undeniable. Antetokounmpo’s center minutes through Brook Lopez’ injury earn him leeway over Embiid, as well as Milwaukee’s better standing. Jayson Tatum’s on-off numbers rivaled Jokic’s, and his defense helped anchor a No. 1 unit. Devin Booker led the league’s best team.

Defensive Player of the Year 

1. Marcus Smart 

2. Rudy Gobert 

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo 

Rookie of the Year

1. Evan Mobley

2. Scottie Barnes 

3. Cade Cunningham

Most Improved Player 

1. Ja Morant

2. Dejounte Murray 

3. Darius Garland 

Sixth Man of the Year 

1. Tyler Herro 

2. Kelly Oubre Jr. 

3. Kevin Love 

Coach of the Year 

1. Ime Udoka 

2. Erik Spoelstra 

3. Jason Kidd 

All-NBA First Team

G Devin Booker

G Luka Doncic 

F Jayson Tatum 

F Giannis Antetokounmpo

C Nikola Jokic

All-NBA Second Team 

G Trae Young

G Ja Morant 

F Kevin Durant 

F DeMar DeRozan 

C Joel Embiid 

All-NBA Third Team 

G Chris Paul 

G Steph Curry 

F LeBron James

F Pascal Siakam 

C Karl-Anthony Towns 

All-Defense First Team 

G Marcus Smart

G Mikal Bridges 

F Giannis Antetokounmpo 

F Jaren Jackson Jr. 

C Rudy Gobert 

All-Defense Second Team 

G Jrue Holiday 

G Herb Jones

F Draymond Green 

F Robert Williams III 

C Bam Adebayo 

All-Rookie First Team 

G Josh Giddey

G Cade Cunningham 

F Scottie Barnes

F Franz Wagner 

C Evan Mobley

All-Rookie Second Team 

G Jalen Green 

G Chris Duarte 

F Ayo Dosunmu 

F Herbert Jones 

C Alperen Sengun