Early Thoughts on Celtics Facing Magic in First Round of the NBA Playoffs

The Celtics will host the Magic in the first round of the NBA Playoffs beginning on Sunday after Orlando defeated Atlanta in the NBA Play-In Tournament, clinching the east’s seventh seed. It’ll mark the first series between the Celtics and Magic since the last battle between Boston and Dwight Howard’s Orlando team in 2010.

Orlando has something going for it again over one decade late, boasting the second-best defense in the NBA and ascending stars Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. It’s one of the most physical teams in the league, drawing the most fouls in the NBA with more than 20 per game. The Magic also beat the Celtics in two of their three meetings this year, and have won four straight games at home over Boston stretching back to 2023.

The Magic, at times, look closer to the middle-tier team in the east they finished as last season, pushing the Cavaliers to seven games in the first round before their loss in the decisive game left them one win short of a date with Boston last April. They have three physically imposing centers between Wendell Carter Jr., Jonathan Isaac and Goga Bitadze, who Celtics fans will remember for his spat with Kristaps Porziņģis in the Magic’s December win.

On that night, Jayson Tatum became a scratch minutes before tip-off with an illness, and Cole Anthony led an emotional Orlando win with 10 late points days after Moe Wagner tore his ACL and went down for the season. Jalen Suggs since underwent surgery after a bout with back spasms. Banchero and Wagner both missed significant time with oblique injuries derailed the team’s offense, which never got back on track after they returned. Boston won the second game, 121-94, in an offensive rout. The third, last Wednesday, saw the Magic win, but fail to score 100 points against the Celtics’ reserves in a back-to-back for Boston.

The Magic finished 27th in offensive rating (108.9), only better than Brooklyn, Charlotte and Washington, and similar to New Orleans and Toronto. It’s an unimaginable low for a playoff team, a credit to how dominant their defense (109.1, 2nd) was to carry them and a massive hurdle to potentially competing with Boston’s second-ranked scoring. The Magic shot 51 eFG%, 29th, more than five percentage points worse than the Celtics.

The Celtics averaged 48.2 three-point attempts per game to lead the league this season, while Orlando’s 35.3 ranked bottom-10, a seemingly insurmountable gap between the two teams. Yet the first two meetings saw Boston generate two of their lowest five three-point attempt totals in a game all season, 33 in the December loss and 37 in the January win. The Magic and their switching are the most prolific team in the league at limiting opposing threes, opponents averaging 31.4 attempts per game. That’s the fewest by 3.1 attempts. The Celtics, by contrast, allow 37.1 each night while playing drop and willing to live with poor shooters attempting threes.

“The key to countering it is to take the shots that they give you,” Joe Mazzulla said. “And fight for the best shot. They got a lot of defensive versatility, change their coverages up and they’re really physical at the point of attack. So to me, the most important thing is making sure we’re just as physical on the offensive end, owning our space and fighting for the best shot we can each possession.”

“They’re gonna test our physicality…coverages…screening…they’re a really good team,” he said.

There are many struggling shooters on Orlando, Banchero finishing the season 32% from deep, Wagner 29.5% in the second year of a decline, Jonathan Isaac, 25.8%, and Anthony Black hitting only 31.8% off the bench. Their greatest threats are Anthony, 35.3%, and Gary Harris, 35.6%. Caleb Houstan (40%), rookie Tristan Da Silva (33.5%) and late season starter Cory Joseph (36.4%) have emerged at times as reliable threats on limited attempts. Opponents have hit 36.5% on threes against them while the Magic’s 31.8% efficiency from deep ranked last. It’s a definitive edge for the Celtics.

What’s concerning entering the series is that Orlando has several potential advantages, which shouldn’t be the case in a 7-2 series against the defending champs. They play the slowest pace in the league, 96.51 possessions per game, while the Celtics fell to 96.59 due in part to limited forced turnovers. Jaylen Brown’s injury turned him into less of a transition player and Kristaps Porziņģis’ return, along with more double-big lineups, naturally shifted Boston away from a higher-paced attack. They’ll need to stay in those alignments to match Orlando’s size, so the game could become more of a half court attack if Brown remains limited and the Celtics can’t turn the Magic over, though Orlando ranked 20th in turnover rate. Their offense doesn’t go through many progressions, and at times ball-handlers got stuck above the free throw line. Wagner’s shot developed a strange hitch.

Porziņģis will need to punish the Magic’s switching, and will become the focal point offensively when Black, Anthony and others try to defend him in the post. He scored 23 points in 23 minutes in his lone appearance against the Magic this year, shooting 7-of-10 and 4-for-5 on twos with six free throw attempts.

“They’re good at it, they’re gonna run us off the threes,” Porziņģis said. “But that’s gonna give us opportunities for other things. Me, I think, being able to shoot from deeper outside is only gonna benefit me and the team. We’ll take what they give us.”

Defensively, Tatum logged the most minutes on Banchero, holding him to 0-for-2 shooting, followed by Al Horford and Jrue Holiday. Holiday didn’t play up positionally as often this regular season, but the playoffs could become full go for him to take on those matchups and shift the Celtics into some of the zone looks they deployed more often last season. He’s in charge of those defensive play calls.

Banchero averaged 8.4 free throws per game for the Magic, who drew more than 20 fouls per game to lead the NBA. They’ll embrace and initiate contact, and the Celtics will need to overcome the same frustration with officiating that led to Trae Young’s ejection in Tuesday’s play-in game. Orlando also commits 20 fouls per game, while Celtics draw and commit among the fewest in the league.

“It’s the playoffs,” Tatum said. “It’s gonna be my eighth season going into the playoffs, and you should just expect you’re not gonna get no calls, right? The refs, they let you play a lot more, get away with a lot on both ends, right? There’s probably some s*** that we get away with. So just know that going in, expect to be fouled, expect them not to call it and worry about the things that you can control. It’s not about fouls, it’s matching their physicality, being prepared for a fight. Compete on both ends and do all the little things as hard as you can.”

There’s also some history here. Porziņģis and Bitadze scrapped into December, leading to the latter’s ejection. Anthony decried Celtics broadcaster Eddie House for slighting them last season. Brown described them as a difficult team to play against earlier in his career, comparing them to the Nick Nurse era Toronto Raptors for their length. With how physically they play, the biggest hope for this series could become Boston escapes healthy.

“It’s an unorthodox kind of team to play against,” Brown said after the Celtics lost three straight games to the Magic in 2023. “They got that Toronto feel, but even longer. Kind of like how Cleveland was last year where they play a lot of bigs and a lot of length, can cover ground any time you get to the basket, just long arms to make those passes tough, they get a lot of deflections. Just a tough team to play against.”