East Playoff Scenarios Entering the Final Days of the Celtics Season

The Celtics visit the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday for the final road game of their 2023-24 campaign. Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford will sit, with more rest inevitable between Thursday and Friday’s home games against the Knicks and Hornets. Boston concludes its season on Sunday afternoon versus the Wizards, a game that the entire top-six will probably take off based on how the team handled it last year. The Celtics are the only team secured in its seeding across the entire NBA, locked into the league’s No. 1 overall seed by 8.0 games over Minnesota and Denver, and 15.0 games above the Bucks in the east.

Here’s how the rest of the conference stacks up entering the final 3-4 games of the regular season, with the Pacers’ recent win over the Heat carrying massive implications in the race for the seventh and eight seed that’ll decide who Boston hosts in two weekends to tip off the NBA Playoffs.

10-versus-9 game: Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls

9. Bulls 37-41, — games back, four games remaining vs. New York, at Detroit, at Washington, at New York (own tiebreaker). 20.3% odds to face Boston round one.

10. Hawks 36-42, 1.0 games back, four games remaining vs. Miami, vs. Charlotte, at Minnesota, at Indiana. 19.8% odds to face Boston round one. 

In some ways, these two teams are most likely to play against the Celtics in the opening series because the winner would reach the second play-in tournament game against the loser of 8-versus-7, one game short of clinching the No. 8 seed. Basketball Reference’s playoff odds gives the Bulls a slight edge, because they’ll have home court for now, but their magic number is three. Boston swept Chicago in three regular season games while the Hawks split their four games after Atlanta won a pair of games at home over the Celtics last month.

8-versus-7 game: Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat 

7. 76ers 44-35, 1.0 game back of IND for 6th, three games remaining vs. Detroit, vs. Orlando, vs. Brooklyn. 24.9% odds to face Boston round one.

8. Heat 43-35, 0.5 games back of PHI, four games remaining at Atlanta, vs. Dallas, vs. Toronto, vs. Toronto. 25.7% odds to face Boston round one. (owns tiebreaker vs. PHI)

Can’t rule out the Pacers or even the Cavaliers from sliding into the play-in round, but with Philadelphia only having three games left to make up 2.0 games without the tiebreaker against either, we’ll rule that out. Miami could still rise with the tiebreaker over Cleveland, but that also appears improbable. All odds point to a 76ers-Heat play in game that features two teams that look more like second round or even east finals caliber competition potentially falling into the eighth seed. Boston swept Miami in three regular season games, but the Heat dominated them through three games in the east finals last year before winning Game 7. Philadelphia just returned Joel Embiid to the floor, who’s averaging 27.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.3 SPG and 1.0 BPG on 50% shooting (26-52 FG, 5-11 3PT) in three games back. The Heat and 76ers split four regular season games, with Embiid only available for the most recent to begin April, which Philadelphia won, 109-105.

The Heat are 2-1 against the Hawks and 2-2 vs. the Bulls. Philadelphia split its season series with the Hawks and lost, 1-2, to the Bulls.

Middle of the conference 

2. Bucks 47-31, — GB of two, four games remaining vs. Boston, vs. Orlando, at Oklahoma City, at Orlando. Only currently own tiebreaker vs. New York. Have only clinched the No. 6 seed. Magic number 2 for 5, 3 for 2, 3 and 4. B-ball ref: 40.1% odds of finishing second, 21.1% odds of finishing third, 18.9% odds of finishing fourth. 

3. Magic 46-32, 1.0 GB of two, four games remaining at Houston, at Milwaukee, at Philadelphia, vs. Milwaukee. Own tiebreaker vs. New York, Cleveland, Indiana and could clinch Milwaukee one. Have only clinched the No. 8 seed. Magic number 2 for 5, 6 and 7 seeds. 3 for 4 seed. 4 for 2 and 3 seeds. B-ball ref: 21.4% odds of finishing second, 25.0% odds of finishing third, 21.1% odds of finishing fourth, 18.6% odds of finishing fifth.

4. Knicks 46-32, 1.0 GB of two, four games remaining at Chicago, at Boston, vs. Brooklyn and vs. Chicago. Own tiebreakers vs. Cleveland, Miami and Philadelphia. Have only clinched the No. 8 seed. Magic number 2 for 5, 6 and 7 seeds. 3 for 4 seed. 4 for 3 seed. Unlike Orlando and Milwaukee, they do not control their destiny for No. 2. B-ball ref:14.3% odds of finishing second, 27.5% odds of finishing third, 26.9% odds of finishing fourth, 20.0% odds of finishing fifth, 10% odds of finishing sixth. 

5. Cavaliers 46-33, 1.5 GB of two, threes games remaining vs. Memphis, vs. Indiana and vs. Charlotte. Only owns tiebreaker vs. Philadelphia. Have only clinched the No. 8 seed. Magic number 2 for 6 and 7 seeds, and 3 for 5. B-ball ref: 22.8% odds of finishing second, 21.0% odds of finishing third, 20.0% odds of finishing fourth, 20.8% odds of finishing fifth, 11.1% odds of finishing sixth. 

6. Pacers 45-34, 2.5 GB of two, threes games remaining at Toronto, at Cleveland and vs. Atlanta. Own tiebreaker vs. Milwaukee, New York, Cleveland, Miami and Philadelphia. Have only clinched the No. 8 seed. Magic number 2 for 7, 3 for 5 and 6 seeds. Do not control their destiny for 2, 3 and 4. B-ball ref: 1.4% odds of finishing second, 5.3% odds of finishing third, 11.2% odds of finishing fourth, 21.3% odds of finishing fifth, 42.5% odds of finishing sixth, 9.4% chance of finishing seventh. 

In this jumbled mess of scenarios, keep an eye on two games between the Magic and Bucks this week that could swing the top of the east and potential round two matchups. The Pacers can quickly avoid seven by handling their business, and could easily move into the 4-versus-5 matchup that aligns with Boston in round two. Right now, Basketball Reference predicts that will feature Orlando and New York, but given the Bucks’ late season slide, it wouldn’t be stunning to see the Bucks fall to four if they lose to the Celtics on Tuesday.

The Cavaliers haven’t played well lately either, but the odds give them the benefit of the doubt for the third seed given two of their final three games come against lottery teams. They challenged Boston during the regular season if they sneak into the 4-5 matchup, but struggled immensely against the Knicks last postseason if they end up in a rematch. Indiana won 2-of-3 over New York during the year, Orlando won 3-of-4 against them and split their four games against the Cavs.Â

In summary, any of the Bucks, Magic, Knicks, Cavaliers and Pacers could move into the 4-5 series that aligns against Boston in round two. It’s less likely that Indiana slides into seven or eight with tiebreakers over both Miami and Philadelphia. The No. 2 seed, which Basketball Reference still gives the Bucks a 40% chance to clinch, would likely face the winner of 76ers-Heat next week.Â

TUE games to watch: Bucks-Celtics, Pistons-76ers, Pacers-Raptors, Heat-Hawks, Magic-Rockets, Knicks-Bulls