Game Preview: How Patriots Can Ace New Test vs Saints

The Patriots are coming off their biggest victory in years after upsetting the Bills in Buffalo. This week, Mike Vrabel’s team must avoid complacency and continue to improve against a Saints team coming off its first win.

“I think it’s super important that we flip the page, considering the New Orleans Saints are a really good football team,” Stefon Diggs told reporters this week. “To be honest, it might be a bigger test than last week, as far as having success and being able to replicate that process and do it all over again… We have to go in there with the right mindset.”

Like New England, the Saints boast a new head coach, a promising second-year quarterback, two dynamic backs, a diverse group of pass-catchers, and a smart, feisty defense. They’re a highly competitive team, as evidenced by one-possession losses to the Cardinals and 49ers in their first two games and last week’s comeback against the Giants. New Orleans even went toe-to-toe with the Bills before falling behind in the 4th quarter.

“They played well in Buffalo,” Vrabel said on Wednesday. “It was a one-score game in the fourth quarter. They roughed the punter, and that was pretty much the end of it. Then, obviously, they got down last week. I think it was an impressive job on their part and Kellen [Moore]’s job, to be down 14-3, come storming back, hit a big play and then create some turnovers.”

The Saints has also excel at protecting the football and taking it away, tying for 5th in the NFL with a +5 turnover differential. Meanwhile, the Patriots are climbing their way from the depths of the league at -1, due largely to fumbles from the backfield and missed opportunities on defense.

This matchup is what trap games are made of, but the Patriots do have significant advantages at head coach and quarterback. Kellen Moore has his team playing hard, and Spencer Rattler has a live arm to go with a veteran’s poise. Still, Vrabel’s experience is a significant edge, while Drake Maye ranks among the league’s top passers under coordinator Josh McDaniels. And though the Saints have some savvy veterans and emerging talent, they lack a premier player like Christian Gonzalez, Christian Barmore, of Milton Williams who keeps coordinators up at night

On paper, a fast start and winning the turnover battle should propel the Patriots to a win in New Orleans. However, football games are won on the field, so here are my three keys to making that projection a reality.

Contain the Backfield

Interim coordinator Zak Kuhr’s ground defense proved its elite status last week in Buffalo.

The NFL’s 2nd-leading rusher, James Cook was held to just 49 yards on 15 carries, and the Bills run game didn’t register a 10+ yard gain or breach the end zone.

Through five weeks, no group has done a better job stuffing runs or protecting the end zone than the Patriots. They’ve also kept yards after contact to a minimum, despite what some tackling numbers might suggest.

Those strengths will be tested yet again against the one-two punch of Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller, two of the league’s most slippery backs.

Kamara is still a big play threat at 30 years old. He’s tied for the 11th-most explosive runs (8) among running backs with Derrick Henry and 12th-most carries hitting 15+ MPH (11). Miller has broken this year as one of the most physical players at his position, ranking 3rd in yards after contact per rush (4.4). Those numbers are even more impressive considering New Orleans has created the 5th-fewest yards before contact (0.59).

“We’ll have to do it over again, and we’ll have to work through the week to build a wall, to set an edge, to swarm, tackle, be able to fit the runs up that they’ll probably have in a scheme and everything else,” Vrabel explained. “But what you did one week certainly doesn’t guarantee what you’re going to do the next week, positively or negatively. They do a good job, they have runs out of tempo, they have shots out of tempo. They’re under center, they’re in the gun and the pistol, so there’s a lot to be able to get ready for formationally, so things that we’ll have to be ready for.”

Defending Rattler’s mobility will be another point of emphasis, as he ranks 1st at his position in rushing success rate (72.7%, min. five attempts) and 10th in rushing yards (123).Rattler is a pocket passer who’s more than capable of making plays with his legs, and he’s been used in the run game over the past two games.

The Patriots did a solid job containing Josh Allen, but Rattler presents a different challenge as a smaller, quicker runner. Rush lane integrity, eye discipline, and sound fundamentals will once again be at a premium on Sunday.

Stopping the run and making the Saints one-handed should minimize play action, where Rattler went 6-5 for 108 yards and a touchdown last week. That would be music to New England’s ears after Josh Allen completed all eight such attempts against their defense for 101 yards and a touchdown. Obvious pass situations should also force the quick-triggered Rattler to hold the ball and create more sack opportunities against an inexperienced New Orleans line.

Improve the Run Game

The Saints have a physical defensive front with up-and-coming players, highlighted by defensive tackle Bryan Bresee and edge Carl Granderson. That said, their run defense has been middle of the pack by most metrics, and they’ve given up a lot of big plays.

That’s a weakness Vrabel and McDaniels would love to exploit, but it will take a much improved effort from their rushing attack.

New England ranks among the league’s worst ground games, averaging just 95.2 yards per game and 3.7 yards per rush. They’ve done a good job preventing negative plays, and there’s been solid initial push. However, lanes have closed quickly due to ineffective combos, hit-or-miss second-level blocks, and occasionally overwhelmed skill players at the point of attack. The backfield has also struggled to create yards after contact.

“It’s got to be better,” Vrabel said of his team’s run game woes. “It has to be better at the line of scrimmage, at the second level, and then continue to try to finish to break some of these. And we’ve had some good runs, just not enough of them. Not enough double-digit (explosive) runs that help your average. So again, I think that we’ve got to stop talking about being one guy away or one block away. I think that was a big theme from last week, and that’ll have to fix.”

Antonio Gibson looked like a bright spot before suffering a season-ending injury, leaving Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson to carry the load. That might be a scary thought given Stevenson’s turnover issues (three losses on three fumbles) and Henderson’s inexperience, but they must rise to the occasion to keep the offense from becoming predictable.

While Stevenson’s raw stats aren’t pretty, that can be partially attributed to his heavy diet of downhill runs. He has 18 duo carries compared to just eight for Henderson, whose runs are typically aimed at getting him in space. Stevenson is also creating yards at the highest rate of his career.

Henderson has fallen on the opposite end of that spectrum, ranking bottom-10 in missed tackles forced per rush (0.13, t-7th-fewest) and yards after contact rate (63.6%, 8th-fewest). The rookie is seemingly adjusting to NFL speed, as he’s struggled to set up and exploit blocks consistently. More snaps should lead to increased comfort, but he must be better in protection to maximize his opportunities.

The Patriots know their run game’s current production isn’t sustainable, but McDaniels pointed to the group’s effort and finish as bright spots while preaching the importance of patience.

“I don’t think there’s any shortcut to that,” McDaniels said. “I know that’s not for lack of effort on anybody’s part. I think you just got to keep working at it. That sometimes is a little bit of a process that comes behind the passing game, at times. There’s time on task, time in pads, things like that that that we’re continuing to try to work on… I think patience is important in that regard and not abandoning things and looking for one answer here or there.”

If the offensive line can stay on blocks a tick longer and stay off the turf, and Henderson takes another step in his growth, New England’s run game should have a chance to gain positive momentum against a vulnerable Saints front.

PUNISH THE BLITZ

Outside of Bresee, the Saints have had a tough time pressuring passers this season. Even more alarming is that they’re heating up opponents at one of the highest rates in the league.

New Orleans must adapt or die against Maye, whose 121.5 passer rating vs blitz ranks 5th among qualified passers. Stefon Diggs showed he could be a true go-to after last week’s breakout performance, which followed another impressive outing the week before.

“I think the biggest thing is he’s a receiver that’s easy to throw to,” Maye said of his top target. “He’s got great hands. He can catch it different ways with his body. He turns with the football and makes people miss very easily. It’s very natural. You can just tell he’s played receiver a long time and played at a high level. So, just trying to put it in his vicinity, and he always says, ‘I got you.’ So just trust that, and I think it’ll just continue to build and build and try to get him in the end zone.”

Diggs isn’t the only receiver eating in this offense. Hunter Henry and Kayshon Boutte have each surpassed 200 receiving yards and proven to be reliable weapons downfield. Stevenson has also made plays as a checkdown option and over the top.

Maye’s rapport with his pass-catchers could prove deadly against the Saints, whose two-deep and match scheme is allowing the league’s highest completion rate against intermediate throws.

“It comes down to, for me, ball placement, get it out on time and making sure the football is in the right spot for them to catch and run or catch and make a play. So, that’s kind of the biggest thing. [The Saints have] some young DBs out there. They’re fast, and they make great plays on the ball. I’ve played a few of them in college.”

The offensive line could also have a chance to pad its much-improved pass protection stats. New England has allowed the league’s fourth-lowest pressure rate (25.4%) and 10th-fewest knockdown rate (6.9%). Credit also goes to Maye’s poise and Stevenson’s reliability in support.

McDaniels credited all parties when asked about the pass game’s success, a message echoed by his quarterback.

“First off, the guys up front are playing their butts off,” Maye explained. “They’re protecting me great. I joke with them all the time; I think the sacks I’ve taken have been basically on me. So, maybe they’ve gotten beat a few times, but they’ve done a great job, and they’re playing hard. Also, it comes with the scheme. We’re chipping on the edge, and we’re getting the ball out fast. The guys have really taken home inside-out protection, and they keep on playing every week and playing hard.”

Maye should also have opportunities to work his magic, as the Saints have struggled against dual-threat passers.

Fast starts haven’t been the Patriots’ specialty this season, but kicking that habit would go a long way in shrinking the Saints’ playbook on both sides of the ball. The same can be said for an offense trending upward not to get caught up in recent success.

“I think [momentum is] something you can build off, for sure,” Maye said. “I think the guys – obviously it builds confidence. That’s what Coach [Vrabel] always preaches. Getting wins and the win column build confidence, but you’ve got to flush it, keep going and worry about – it’s any given week in this league. You learn that really fast. So, everybody’s got good players and good scheme. The more you play, the more they get tape on you. So, pick up habits and tendencies.”