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Game Preview: How the Patriots Can Get Back on Track vs Panthers

If the Patriots avoid beating themselves, they should have little trouble rebounding from last week's loss vs the injury-plagued Panthers.
Taylor KylesBy Updated:9 Mins Read

After a five-turnover defeat in front of their home crowd, the Patriots have a chance to rebound against a confident but injury-plagued Panthers team.

“It was one of those games that you just look back and feel like, ‘Man, we hurt ourselves,'” Drake Maye said. “It’s one of those things where [you] just get back to focusing on us and a new opponent. We’ve got to know how to not lose the game on ourselves before we go win it.”

Despite an excellent game plan, Josh McDaniels‘ offense took a big step back after a strong showing in Miami. Giveaways were the main culprit, but missed opportunities prevented what should’ve been a comfortable win.

On the other end of the spectrum, interim coordinator Zak Kuhr’s defense looks to build on an impressive performance. Red zone defense remains an area for improvement, but Aaron Rodgers was held to just 139 passing yards, and Jaylen Warren averaged 2.6 yards on 18 carries.

“I know what we can do, and I still feel like we haven’t played our best football,” Maye said. “That’s what’s promising ahead… You see glimpses of it, but that’s the challenging part of this league, and that’s what’s the fun part about it, of getting to that level and hoping to get to that level when the games matter, really matter, and trying to get a push to the postseason or things like that. So, that’s what we’re trying to build toward and just keep going at it every week.”

The Panthers enter Foxborough at 1-2 following a 30-0 blowout loss to the Falcons. Outside of two low red zone scores, it was a modest performance from Bryce Young and company, as the defense put the team on its back.  Carolina held Michael Penix Jr. under 180 passing yards and picked him off twice, returning one for a touchdown. That said, the Falcons also ran for 131 yards, and Carolina’s pass rush has been one of the worst in the league.

The Panthers may have momentum, but the Patriots have coaching and talent advantages in this matchup. The key will be staying out of their own way.

“People lose games more than they win games,” Stefon Diggs told reporters this week. “You learn how to lose by experience, sadly enough… I feel like you have to take these Ls with a lesson. We were in all of them, competitive, right there. So we could easily be sitting at 3-0 but we’re 1-2, and we have a lot to look forward to.”

This is also a big week for special teams, as Carolina kicker Ryan Fitzgerald is sending returners into frenzies with his “dirty” kickoffs.

As the Patriots prepare to stack positive games on defense and not lost on offense, here are my three keys to New England getting back on track and securing their first home win.

Protect the Football

Avoiding turnovers is always crucial, but it must be over-emphasized this week. The Patriots lost all four of their fumbles last week, and Maye was punished for just one of three turnover-worthy throws. That won’t fly against the Panthers’ ball-hawking secondary, which is led by Pro Bowl corner Jaycee Horn.

“He’s made some plays this year, and he’s one of those guys backside that is going to play into the boundary and make it tough,” Maye said. “He’s physical, he can play, he’s patient, he’s got good ball skills. So, he’s one of those guys that he’s going to make it tough. It’s something that you can’t eliminate that part of the field, but you’ve got to be careful with him. Then on the other side, No. 2 [Mike Jackson], he’s a good player as well.”

If Maye reins in the high misses and exploits downfield shots more consistently, the pass game could have a day attacking the middle of Carolina’s defense.

Christian Rozeboom ranks five-worst among linebackers in receiving yards and yards per reception allowed, and no safety has allowed more receptions than slot defender Tre’von Moehrig, who McDaniels is familiar with from their time with the Raiders.

That leaves Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, who combined for three fumbles against Pittsburgh after two clean games. Fumbles are never excusable, and head coach Mike Vrabel told reporters they’ll “practice the crap out of” ball security this week. Still, outside of Maye doing too much on his strip sack, last week’s gaffs weren’t solely on the ball-carriers.

Mike Onwenu missed blocks on both of Stevenson’s fumbles. Jared Wilson, an unblockable box count sharing responsibility, and excellent defensive efforts also shared responsibility. Mack Hollins didn’t get a hand on Jabrill Peppers when his former teammate made a great play to put his helmet on the ball.

“We also have to do a better job of protecting said person with the ball, whether that’s the quarterback, whether that’s the running back or the receiver,” Vrabel said. “We’re all responsible for the security of the football. It starts with the person who has it, and then it falls upon the people that are blocking. Again, we’ll continue to rep it. If we have to put two hands on the football, when we’re going through there, that’s what we’ll have to do.”

Many have fairly wondered if a change could be made to the backfield rotation. While Vrabel didn’t dismiss a potential shake-up, he made sure to emphasize Stevenson’s importane in the offense.

“Yeah, we’re going to need him,” Vrabel said. “We’re going to need everybody. He’s got talent, skillset. He’s a good protector, we trust him in protection. We’ll get through this. I think a lot of it is just the consistency and continuing to build confidence. But you have to go out there and do it. How I manage that from an accountability standpoint, I would say as of now, I don’t know what that will look like later on in the week as far as how we distribute the reps.”

TreVeyon Henderson is an exciting young back, but he is better as a rotational Swiss Army knife than in an every-down role. Stevenson is also one of the most well-rounded players at his position, and Gibson has looked explosive in limited touches. Until the problem persists, I don’t anticipate seismic change.

Bottom line: Take care of the ball when you’ve got it. When you don’t, protect the guy who does.

Don’t Let Derrick Brown Wreck the Game

The Patriots’ offensive line will have its chemistry and depth tested this week, as standout rookie Jared Wilson will likely miss Sunday’s game with an ankle/knee injury after getting rolled up on last week.

Wilson’s absence has thrust center/guard Ben Brown into a group still finding its stride. It helps that Brown, who spent time with the starting line in camp, is a solid protector, allowing zero pressures on 40 preseason snaps. However, Brown was inconsistent as a run blocker this summer, and the Patriots’ ground game is already a work in progress.

Things won’t be getting any easier this week with Pro Bowler Derrick Brown and a stout Panthers interior coming to town.

“This is a really talented player, and they have multiple guys at different levels that create some issues here,” McDaniels told reporters. “Derrick’s a very rugged guy up front. Powerful, strong, explosive. Can be disruptive in a running game, can be disruptive in pass protection. We’ll see him on both sides of the line of scrimmage, both sides of the ball. So it’s not just one person that’s going to see him. They’re going to move him, in terms of where his alignment is. So that’s a challenge.”

Brown hasn’t racked up pressures this season, but he’s a powerful and instinctive player who must be avoided in the ground game. That will make attacking the edges a priority, in addition to capitalizing on an aggressive defense, and getting playmakers in space, which the Patriots showed shades of against the Steelers. 

The offense was inconsistent blocking outside zone and tosses last week, but Will Campbell had impressive reps in between some misses, which also reflects his work next to Brown this preseason.

On the bright side, Morgan Moses, Austin Hooper, and Mike Onwenu have caved in opposing fronts the past two weeks. And while Onwenu has struggled at times this season, he had solid reps on the backside of some zone runs.

If New England can spring some off-tackle runs to the right and get to the perimeter going left, McDaniels’ playbook should stay open to rain fire on Carolina’s second level.

Contain Tetairoa McMillan

The Patriots’ offensive line may be down a young starter, but the defense should see a key player return to the lineup this week.

Christian Gonzalez is set to make his season debut after suffering a hamstring injury early this summer. The All=Pro nearly came back last week, but Vrabel told reporters he held Gonzalez out in an effort to protect the player.

“It’s a violent game, can they protect themselves?” Vrabel said of his thought process. “Can they do their job to the standard that we have set for them and they’ve set for themselves? And can they make it worse? Those are the three things that I would probably use [to make those decisions].”

Given spot starter Alex Austin’s recent struggles, including a benching against the Steelers, Gonzalez’s return would be a much-needed upgrade for New England’s secondary.

His return would also be bad news for a depth-deprived Panthers receiving corps. Explosive slot receiver Jalen Coker is on injured reserve, Xavier Legette is battling a hamstring injury after a slow start, and rookie tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders hasn’t practiced due to an ankle injury.

These absences will put more pressure on 8th overall pick, Tetairoa McMillan, whose 216 receiving yards are more than double the next closest Panther.

“He’s a big athlete, smooth, fluid mover, good at the catch point,” Vrabel said. “Body control for such a long player, very agile, loose. Upper body flexibility, can turn, locate the football. So, good catch radius. Seems like Bryce certainly trusts him already to be where he’s supposed to be.”

Gonzalez might need to re-acclimate after missing so much time, but as talented as McMillan is, he lacks threatening speed and advanced route savvy. McMillan has also been limited by a calf injury that kept him out of Wednesday’s practice.

Gonzalez playing to his technique should leave Young with few options outside of 29-year-old Hunter Renfrow, who will be facing another hyper-athletic corner in Marcus Jones. Combine that with an explosive veteran pass rush, and New England’s defense should have another dominant performance.

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Taylor Kyles is the lead NFL Analyst for CLNS Media covering players, schemes, and tendencies through a New England Patriots-centric lens.

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