Game Preview: How Patriots Can Take Down Titans

For the first time since late 2021, the Patriots are 1st in the AFC East.

Even with three-quarters of the season left to play, it’s a remarkable feat given the team’s recent lows and dramatic offseason overhaul. Still, head coach Mike Vrabel is focused on New England’s third road game in as many weeks against the Titans.

“Well, they’re not going to cancel the rest of the season, and that’s not really our focus right now,” Vrabel said earlier this week. “But I would say that we’ve done – we’ve put ourselves in a position to play meaningful games – not that they aren’t all meaningful, but certainly focusing on this one on the road. Our last one of three here. And I appreciate us not looking too far ahead.”

The game will be a homecoming for Vrabel, who led Tennessee for six seasons before being let go, and several members of the Patriots organization. Coaches and players have downplayed the return, but it’s hard to believe they wouldn’t relish beating up on the 1-5 Titans.

Tennessee finds itself closer to where New England was last season, gifted a potential star at quarterback in with little support around him. Former head coach Brian Callahan was fired after last week’s loss to the Raiders, which was preceded by a notably poor week of practice. Callahan has been replaced by senior offensive assistant Mike McCoy, adding a layer of unpredictability to this weekend’s matchup.

“We’ll have to be prepared for everything,” Vrabel explained. “There’s a lot of fakes in the history with the coordinator. May go for it more on whatever situation. I just think we’ll have to be prepared for whatever that may be. Whatever wrinkles, the things that Mike liked or didn’t like, that’s going to be his prerogative, and we’ll have to be prepared for whatever it is.”

The Titans’ offense is short on game-changers, especially with Calvin Ridley (hamstring) likely to miss the game. Only the Browns (13.7) have scored fewer points per game than Tennessee (13.8), and no one has averaged fewer yards per game (232.3). That said, quarterback Cam Ward can’t be taken lightly, as he’s flashed elite playmaking potential while running for his life. Vrabel had a lot of praise for the rookie, noting his maturity, arm talent, and courage in the pocket.

Keeping Ward quiet will require sound coverage, where coordinator Zak Kuhr’s defense is allowing explosives at the highest rate in the league. Kuhr spoke on the defense’s struggles while acknowledging the unit is still building chemistry. 

“We just have to get better in the pass, first, second down,” Kuhr explained. “In third and three-plus, we’re pretty up there right now as far as production. But the first and second down, a lot of these guys are still getting familiar with each other. A lot of guys haven’t played with each other before this year, and I think truly as a whole defense we’ve gotten better each week just as far as understanding each other’s play styles. That does take a little bit of time… I think the pass game sometimes as a defense does take a little more time to develop.”

When it comes to the Titans’ defense, everything starts and ends with Jeffery Simmons. The game-wrecker is having another monster season, ranking at or near the top of his position in most metrics. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels called Simmons one of the best players in the league at any position. Vrabel said, “Great players make good coaches,” when asked about his time coaching Simmons, and both Vrabel and McDaniels lauded the Pro Bowler for his effort and leadership.

“There’s no ebb and flow — it’s all the time, full tilt, and he’s out there almost every play,” McDaniels explained. “He lines up across the front… That presents a challenge in terms of time management and understanding the matchups and how he plays. Very powerful, disruptive, and a really good teammate. He’ll do some dirty work and help somebody else. There’s not enough superlatives to describe him. The challenge for us is to try to limit how productive he is and limit the amount of big negative plays he makes.”

Outside of Simmons, run-stopping defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day, and emerging linebacker Cedric Gray, Tennessee’s defense has been average at best. They’ve allowed the 7th-most points in the league and forced just one turnover since Week 3, setting up what could be another big day for the Patriots’ passing game.

Here are my three keys to New England handling business in Vrabel’s old stomping grounds and taking down the Titans.

Contain Jeffery Simmons

For the first time in years, the Patriots’ pass blocking isn’t a liability. In fact, only the Broncos’ line has allowed fewer sacks (1) than New England (2), per PFF. Timely throws, pocket maintenance, and skill player assistance have also played a factor, but the overhauled unit has the tape to back up their numbers.

Will Campbell and Morgan Moses have been solid, given their respective ages, allowing one sack and two hits each. Still, great protection starts inside, and the Patriots’ interior has yet to give up a sack this season.

Garrett Bradbury has exceeded expectations, using his vision and quickness to keep pockets clean. Mike Onwenu has largely returned to form in protection after struggling in Week 1. Jared Wilson has been up-and-down against line games, but the rookie’s shown the dominant upside that was all over his Georgia tape.

The interior will face its toughest test yet against Simmons, who had a season-high eight sacks when the Patriots traveled to Tennessee last season. He ranks 1st in pressures (27), pass rush win rate (19.9), and pass rush productivity (9.1) among qualified interior defenders, and he’s 2nd in sacks (5).

Onwenu survived last year’s clash without a pressure allowed, though there was one close call. Bradbury also held his own against Simmons last season, especially given the significant size mismatch. That said, the center shouldn’t often be left on an island. If the situation and scheme demand it, Maye must plan accordingly.

While the line has been integral to the passing attack’s success, the same can’t be said for the ground game. The Patriots have the league’s 2nd-lowest run success rate (36.7) behind the Bengals (36.1). They’re also tied for the 5th-fewest explosive runs (13), and they’ve gone backwards more often in their past two games.

“‘Close’ is a word you get tired of hearing,” center Garrett Bradbury said on Monday. “But you watch the film with the guys, and there are just a few plays where we need to take more accountability as an O-line to have our guy never make the play… We just need to finish better because we’ve got a good stable of running backs. It’ll help our pass game out. It’ll help the whole team out. We had some good dirty four-, five-, six-yard runs, we just haven’t popped any of those yet. There’s no better feeling than a 20-, 30-, 40-yard touchdown run. We’ve got to take some ownership, get it fixed, and that’ll really help this team out.”

The interior, for its exceptional pass protection, has been at the root of the run game’s recent struggles. Onwenu is still a people-mover in McDaniels’ gap-heavy scheme, but he allowed quick penetration multiple times against the Saints. Meanwhile, Bradbury and Wilson are undersized center-types who don’t get much push, and all three have been inconsistent against linebackers.

The Patriots failed to exploit weak ground defenses in Buffalo and New Orleans, but they’ll have their best chance yet to improve in Tennessee. While Simmons is tied with Joseph-Day for the 2nd-most run stops (12) among interior defenders, he’s also been at the point of attack on many of the Titans’ biggest runs allowed.

 

Simmons will make his plays, but if the Patriots’ interior gets better combos and second-level blocks while having fewer quick losses, they can exploit light boxes for big gains. Running at Simmons could also help slow the game-wrecker down in passing situations, where snap count variance and quick releases will be crucial.

Test the Titans’ Secondary

Drake Maye has been on a historic pace during the Patriots’ three-game win streak. The second-year quarterback has completed at least 75% of passes and thrown at least two touchdowns each week. That’s a three-game span matched only by Tom Brady in 2007.

Maye is also excelling by most advanced metrics, including the league’s 8th-highest passer rating against the blitz (130.1), 2nd-highest under pressure (89.2), and highest by far going deep.

Maye dropped bombs early and often against the Saints’ defense, going 4-5 with three touchdowns on attempts of 20+ air yards. He also had two dimes called back on phantom penalties, and another accurate pass was wasted on a missed pass interference.

Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas were Maye’s top targets on these throws, with Boutte adding to an already impressive season. The Louisiana native caught two of the offense’s three scores and has been an elite producer on deep throws. Douglas came roaring out of the gate after a quiet first few games, catching what should’ve been consecutive deep scores. Both plays highlighted the vertical and YAC ability that made Douglas such an exciting prospect out of Liberty.

Their success, combined with Maye’s growing rapport with Stefan Diggs, could lead to even more calculated aggression from the quarterback. This would be a great week for it, as the Titans have allowed one of the league’s highest completion rates on deep throws. Amani Hooker has struggled in deep zones, and teams have had big plays against both Hooker and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed 1-on-1.

Boutta, Douglas, and Diggs each caught deep passes in New Orleans on concepts the Titans have recently been burned on. McDaniels might switch up the presentation to prevent tipping his hand, but it’s fair to expect something similar and then some in Tennessee.

Exploit the Edges

The Patriots’ defensive tackles have gotten most of the praise for New England’s rejuvenated pass rush. While Milton Williams and Christian Barmore are living up to their monster deals, Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson have also been key to the front’s success.

Landry’s status is up in the air after suffering an ankle injury last week. If the veteran is good to go, he could be in for one hell of a revenge game against the team that cut him after seven seasons.

Landru’s versatility, get-off, and savvy have made him a force versus run and pass. The first-time captain also plays with a relentless motor and good discipline, which has been invaluable against dual-threat passers.

K’Lavon Chaisson has also been a well-rounded contributor for the Patriots, alignment penalties aside. Chips and quick throws have hurt Chaisson’s production, but his explosiveness, technique, and toughness have led to several impact plays. The LSU alum is also coming off a career day in the Superdome after missing the previous game due to injury.

Anfernee Jennings and Keion White also returned to practice after being inactive last week, signaling a much-needed depth boost on the outside.

The Titans’ offensive line has looked disjointed all season, but depth at tackle has been a major issue. Left tackle Dan Moore Jr., right tackle JC Latham, and backup John Ojukwu are each tied for the 4th-most sacks allowed among tackles (4). Moore is also tied for the 6th-most allowed hits (4).

Tennessee’s tackles have been slightly better when asked to run block, but they’re still one of the league’s worst ground games outside the tackles. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ run defense continues to be elite despite some leaks to the perimeter.

The pass rush must be more consistent in contain than we saw last week against Spencer Rattler, but they’ve been solid in a two-game stretch that also featured Josh Allen. An improved performance should result in a long day for Ward and the Titans’ offensive front.