Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade to Celtics a Worthwhile Risk

The Celtics could circle back to Giannis Antetokounmpo this offseason after ESPN and The Athletic reported Boston’s interest in the star prior to the trade deadline alongside and expectation around the league that they could have interest again. The report doesn’t arrive as controversial: the entire league should have varying degrees of interest in a perenial top-five player since 2018-19, who’s still only 31-years-old.

The decision over whether to actually do a deal, or extend themselves to beat others that’ll surely join theirs, will define the Celtics’ offseason and near future. The Knicks and Cavaliers, the top competitors alive in the Eastern Conference playoffs, also emerged as contenders for Antetokounmpo earlier this season — and could again. Boston’s objective, despite the franchise resetting its finances over the past year, should center around giving themselves the best chance to win a championship. Antetokounmpo still provides that at full health.

The cost will become the first question over whether to bring him to Boston.

Many assume a Jaylen Brown-for-Giannis swap would work, but the Bucks don’t have an infrastructure to build around Brown or the ability to utilize their own picks in coming years to rebuild. Brown alone would not put Milwaukee in position to re-emerge as a playoff team following an Antetokounmpo trade, nor would the draft picks Boston owns in coming years aside from the 2028 (swap) and 2029 rights that they sent to the Spurs and Blazers in recent trades.

That leaves the No. 27 pick in next month’s draft, a 2027 swap, or outright selection if timed correctly, a 2030 swap, 2031 unprotected pick and another swap in 2032. Waiting until the new league year could also make an unprotected in 2033 available. The largest blockbuster NBA deals have typically included at least some combination of five first-round picks and swap rights.

That’s an enormous number to offload alongside Brown, and likely too many to realistically maintain a window beyond Jayson Tatum and Antetokounmpo’s primes. That makes it all the more important that Boston finds a third team who would acquire and trade a significant package for Brown. The Hawks made some sense as an ascending contender in need of a lead star following Trae Young’s departure, but Chris Mannix reported that Atlanta paused in Brown trade talks, in part, due to Brown’s contract last summer.

They had Young on the roster then, before an intriguing season headlined by Jalen Johnson’s emergence ended loudly with a blowout loss to the Knicks in Game 6 after previously leading the series, 2-1. That could change how the team views its path forward, though no indication has come out of Atlanta that the Hawks would have interest in a trade that would likely require parting with at least the No. 8 pick, which arrived from New Orleans, in this highly-lauded draft class.

Atlanta could match Brown’s salary by moving Corey Kispert, Zaccharie Risacher and either picking up Jonathan Kuminga’s team option to trade him, or sign-and-trading him. As Bucks reporter Jim Owczarski indicated on Celtics Daily, that’s not exactly helping the Bucks regain playoffs status soon. Atlanta also owns a protected 2027 Bucks/Pelicans pick, 2028 swap rights with the worst of the Jazz/Cavs’ picks and their own selections from 2029-2033.

Portland becomes the more intriguing facilitator if they decide to upgrade their roster and can’t acquire Antetokounmpo themselves. The Bucks star will have some say in his destination, given his player option next year, and should the Blazers have interest in Brown, own 2028 and 2030 Bucks swap rights that they could return to Milwaukee. Portland’s widely publicized cost-cutting efforts by new owner Tom Dundon, the city’s distance from Greece and their long road from contending for a title, especially in the West, could all potentially dissuade Antetokounmpo. Brown, by contrast, has three years left on his contract.

The Blazers now own the best and worst of the Celtics, Wizards and their own 2029 first-rounders (the middle going to Washington). With Deni Avdija signed for $13.1 million and $11.9 million over the next two seasons after an All-Star year, it’s possible they would rather roll with him than more expensive upgrades in Antetokounmpo or Brown. Pulling Avdija into a deal, which would require serious haggling between Boston and Portland, could entice the Bucks compared to other offers.

Those currently could include Miami’s perennial offer for stars built around Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins and young players with future draft picks. That’s more compelling considering the strides Kel’el Ware took last year, and the Heat emerged as the favorites to land Antetokounmpo in some markets. New York would have to re-route Karl-Anthony Towns for more assets as Boston would with Brown.

The Cavs can offer Evan Mobley, but remain limited to trading two future firsts due to the Donovan Mitchell deal.

The Warriors would need to find someone to take Jimmy Butler as he recovers from ACL surgery, though their full complement of future draft capital would help.

The Thunder can join and easily win the sweepstakes with any number of pick and player combinations, though they might win the championship again and show a resistance to risky, costly trades. At some point, draft pick consolidation becomes necessary.

As the Celtics watch Oklahoma City battle with the San Antonio Spurs, built around Victor Wembanyama, who’s poised to contend for a championship for years to come, Boston needs to fully explore one or two more sure-fired shots at the championship with one of the league’s best players. That will require an interior force to contend with Joel Embiid in a potential rematch, Towns and New York’s bigs, along with Detroit’s front court just to escape the East. Antetokounmpo provides the rim pressure the Celtics plan to search for (1.17 PPP on rolls, 79th percentile), a capable enough shooter that defenses can’t ignore and one of the league’s best defenders and rebounders. He ranked among the best defenders guarding rollers in the previous three seasons prior to this one.

That’s what the Celtics will have to weigh. Antetokounmpo made the All-NBA First Team in seven straight seasons prior to this past one, when he only appeared in 36 games. With Antetokounmpo due a four-year, $275 million extension this fall that’ll carry through his age-36 season, they need some assurance that he’ll play close to that level for most of the deal. There’s risk in that, but that also exists in a step-back approach that could remove Boston from contention, at least momentarily, and standing-pat with the same core that, for the moment, might not rank top among the East contenders, never mind the NBA.

Speaking with Owczarski earlier this season, Antetokounmpo affirmed that he has at least five seasons left, and in an interview with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal, shared unprompted praise for Joe Mazzulla. Bill Simmons, this week, shared that Antetokounmpo might prefer Boston, but he’s not sure the Celtics want Giannis. They should.

“Everything about my decision is based on winning; culture,” Antetokounmpo said in April. “Like you saw I talked with coach Joe Mazzulla. I said, ‘You had so many opportunities to make excuses, but you didn’t.’ And he said, ‘Oh, they’re good players.’ I said, no. It’s about the mentality that you instilled in your place.”