Now that the initial wave of free agency has passed, people outside the Patriots’ organization seem split on the team’s strategy, particularly on offense.
De facto general manager Eliot Wolf set the bar high by declaring New England would “weaponize” what was the league’s lowest-scoring offense last season. But while the team didn’t make any splash signings, that doesn’t mean their moves lacked substance.
Key areas still need to be addressed through the draft, but the Patriots did an excellent job retaining core players while filling roster holes with experienced veterans, most of whom are under 30.
To gain a clearer perspective on the offense’s standing, I created a grading system to identify the talent level of starters and projected key role-players on that side of the ball.
Below, I’ll share my thoughts on players in each grade category and how New England can realistically add talent at premium positions.
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The 2024 playoffs showed that defense can still win games in the modern NFL, but having at least one All-Pro-caliber quarterback or pass-catcher has proven to be a virtual necessity for sustained success. Outside of the Steelers, who regularly stand as an outlier thanks to Mike Tomlin, legitimate contenders like the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Bills, Lions, Dolphins, Rams, and Eagles have star players in one or more of these roles.
The Patriots’ offense has lacked blue-chip talent since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, and that’s been reflected in their one playoff appearance since 2020. Elite players rarely reach free agency, and New England’s first-round selections typically fall outside the top 15, so the path to acquiring this level of talent hasn’t been easy.
However, the team’s inability to identify talent, find value, or develop players at key spots has been a major factor in the offense plummeting to the bottom of the league in recent seasons. New England also failed to support 15th overall pick Mac Jones sufficiently, then traded out of the 14th pick in last year’s draft to ultimately take a corner despite glaring holes at tackle and receiver.
Wolf and new head coach Jerod Mayo have a chance to rectify these failures with this year’s third-overall pick. But whether they spend it on a potential franchise quarterback or trade back for a guaranteed homerun like Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu, Brock Bowers, Rome Odunze, or Malik Nabers, the plan must be to set that player up for long-term success.
New England could also trade for proven studs like Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, or Deebo Samuel, but I wouldn’t bank on those possibilities until more smoke arises.
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Calvin Ridley was the Patriots’ one realistic chance at adding a Pro-Bowl-caliber starter on offense. But with the receiver approaching 30, they were understandably hesitant to match the Titans’ four-year, $94 million offer. Fortunately for New England, this year’s draft is loaded at wide receiver.
If the team selects a quarterback with the #3 pick, high-upside pass-catchers, such as AD Mitchell, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman, and Ja’Tavion Sanders, will still be available in the late first to early second rounds. All of them should be able to contribute early in their careers.
New England could prioritize the trenches with their second pick, as left tackle is still a glaring need. That said, securing a day-one starter will be difficult since J.C. Latham, Amarius Mims, and Troy Fautanu will likely fly off the board in the top 20. The Patriots could trade back into the end of the first round for Tyler Guyton, whose Pro Day they attended last week, but he’s spent the vast majority of his career on the right side.
If New England plans on using the recently signed Chukwuma Okorafor as a one-year stopgap at the position, they could invest in at least one developmental prospect on day two or beyond. Kingsley Suamataia and Kiran Amegadjie are slated to be the top left tackles available in the second round. The Patriots could also gamble on offensive line coach Scott Peters turning a day-three prospect like Javon Foster into a bona fide stud by unearthing his massive potential with improved technique.
As I mentioned in the previous section, trading for a star receiver, or even tackle, is not out of the cards. But with Wolf’s insistence on building through the draft and developing talent, the draft seems like the most likely avenue for the Patriots to add star power on offense.
RT Mike Onwenu
Mike Onwenu was New England’s highest-priority free agent and the best offensive lineman on the market. Wolf made his value clear by calling the versatile mauler a “cornerstone” and “core player” for the team. He backed those sentiments by bringing Onwenu back on a three-year, $57 million deal.
NFL Network‘s Ian Rapoport reported that Onwenu will remain at right tackle after lining up at every spot on the line but left tackle and center in his four-year career. While I think Owenu is a Pro-Bowl-caliber guard, a full off-season training on the edge could elevate him from good to great at the spot. Alex Van Pelt’s scheme also asks tackles to pull nearly seven times less than interior linemen, which is a better fit for the 350-pounder’s skill set.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson got off to a slow start last season. But once Sidy Sow became the offense’s primary right guard in Week 6, he regained form and re-established himself as one of the league’s best runners and toughest tackles.
Stevenson suffered a season-ending high-ankle sprain as the result of a hip-drop tackle in Week 13, but he told the Boston Globe‘s Nicole Yang that he’s feeling “great” and would’ve played in February if the Patriots had a game. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the dual-threat push for a Pro Bowl spot in 2023 if he can stay healthy and consistent.
C David Andrews
Iron Man David Andrews is set to return after a solid 2023 in which he didn’t miss a snap. The team captain has understandably lost some quickness and mobility as he nears 32, but he’s still an exceptional run blocker who can execute any assignment. As a pass protector, Andrews’ combination of experience, intelligence, and technique keeps him competitive despite his declining physical ability. Above all, the ninth-year veteran brings unparalleled leadership as the only dynasty-era Patriot remaining on offense.
WR Kendrick Bourne
Despite the offense’s virtually nonexistent downfield passing game last season, Kendrick Bourne was trending towards a career year before tearing his ACL in Week 8. He ranked 8th in yards after catch per reception among wide receivers with at least 30 targets and 9th in missed tackles forced over that span.
Bourne’s injury could impact his explosiveness as a ball carrier in 2024, but his savvy route-running and strong hands should ensure another productive season if he stays healthy. The receiver also told the Boston Herald‘s Andrew Callaham he is ahead of schedule and should be ready to go in training camp as he pursues captaincy, Comeback Player of the Year honors, and a Super Bowl ring.
TE Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry, who was voted a team captain for the first time last season, remains a reliable chain-mover and Red Zone monster. Only Sam LaPorta finished the season with more touchdowns among tight ends. And before suffering his own season-ending knee injury in Week 15, Henry was tied for sixth at the position in 3rd/4th down catches that went for conversions.
Henry has shown incredible toughness as a Patriot, appearing in every game from 2021-2022 despite numerous injuries. But with the veteran turning 30 in December, New England needs an infusion of youth at tight end, particularly with the middle-to-late rounds of the draft full of intriguing developmental prospects like Cade Stover, Theo Johnson, Ben Sinnott, Jaheim Bell, and A.J. Barner. Henry will be an invaluable mentor to whoever is added to the room next April while being a security blanket and a serviceable run blocker on the field.
WR DeMario Douglas
DeMario Douglas was the only Patriots receiver defenses seemed to respect down the stretch last season, with some teams even committing extra attention to the sixth-round rookie. While this was largely a reflection of how anemic the supporting cast was around him, especially after Bourne’s injury, it was also a testament to the receiver’s electric play-making ability.
Among wide receivers with at least 50 targets last season, Douglas trailed only Deebo Samuel and Rashee Rice in yards after catch per reception, despite having a higher average depth of target than both. He also led the Patriots with four catches and 130 yards on deep passes, which is even more impressive since just six of his 12 such targets were catchable.
Douglas needs to tighten up his route-running, which was an issue throughout last season. He also suffered two concussions, which could affect how the team uses him moving forward. But as one of the Patriots’ only projected starters who brings juice to the passing game and a legitimate three-level threat, the slot receiver should remain a fixture of New England’s aerial attack.
LG Cole Strange
Cole Strange has been a lightning rod for criticism among Patriots fans since being drafted 29th overall in 2022. While it’s fair to question his draft slot, the perception of Strange doesn’t match the reality.
He got off to a notoriously slow start, which resulted in a benching in Week 9. But there were bright spots throughout the season, and he didn’t allow a single pressure in four of his final eight games.
Strange was expected to build on that solid finish in 2023, especially after adding weight to withstand the power rushers that gave him trouble as a rookie. Unfortunately, his development and chemistry with his fellow linemen came to a screeching halt after he suffered a knee injury in the first week of training camp. This kept him sidelined until Week 2, and he ultimately missed five of the first six games.
It took another month for Strange to shake off the rust, but he ranked top-10 among guards in PFF grade from Weeks 10-14 before another knee injury in Week 15 officially ended his season.
Strange has the athleticism, intelligence, and tenacity to be a winning starter on New England’s offensive line. But he may have to overcome another delayed start, and there’s no telling how his injuries will impact him long-term.
While Strange gets the benefit of the doubt due to his unfortunate circumstances and record of late-season improvement, New England could add another developmental option as insurance. Atonio Mafi could fill that role, but the converted nose tackle would need to take a big leap in development after struggling mightily when called into action as a rookie.
RG Sidy Sow
Sidy Sow spent his entire rookie summer as a square peg in a round hole. Despite looking more like a guard, he spent the entire offseason at right tackle. Sow finally kicked inside during the regular season, but he was thrown to the wolves in Week 1 against a loaded Eagles front and didn’t see the field again until Week 6.
This time off may have been a blessing in disguise, as Sow’s return against the Raiders helped solidify an offensive line that looked aimless through five weeks. There were plenty of inconsistencies, which was to be expected from a fourth-rounder who spent months out of position. Still, he formed a dominant run-blocking duo next to Onwenu and showed flashes of brilliance in pass protection.
With the right side of New England’s line now solidified and the addition of two position coaches with playing experience, Sow may finally have the stability he needs to become a reliable starter.
QB Jacoby Brissett
Jacoby Brissett returning to the team that drafted him felt like a no-brainer. The Patriots needed a veteran bridge to mentor their future face of the franchise, and few quarterbacks are more beloved and well-respected than Brissett.
The career backup also had success under Van Pelt in 2022 while holding Deshaun Watson’s spot for the Browns. From Weeks 1-12, Brissett ranked 8th in big-time throw rate while posting a respectable 12-6 touchdown-interception ratio.
When called into action last season against the Rams, Brissett nearly brought the Commanders back from a 28-7 beatdown, going 8-11 for 124 yards and two touchdowns in a nearly flawless fourth-quarter performance. He had another near-comeback against the Jets, going 10-13 for 100 yards and a touchdown after taking the reigns deep into the 3rd quarter, bringing a 20-point deficit within a field goal. If not for a hamstring injury that popped up during game prep the next week, he might’ve finished the season as the Commanders’ starter.
Brissett shouldn’t start more than a handful of games next season, barring injury or an unstable situation for the team’s rookie passer. But he is an invaluable locker-room presence and above-average spot starter who can lead a team to victory in the right situation.
RB Antonio Gibson
Antonio Gibson wasn’t the splash signing fans expected this offseason, but he gives the Patriots’ offense the type of dynamic chess piece it’s lacked since James White’s final season.
The college receiver-turned-running back offers a unique skill set at 6’2″, 220 lbs with 4.39 speed. In addition to filling the team’s third-down back role, Gibson can be a legitimate one-two punch with Rhamondre Stevenson, as evidenced by his 4.7 yards per carry average as a rookie and 1,000-yard sophomore rushing season. He is versatile enough to rip off chunks in the ground game, take screen passes to the house, or create mismatches while split outside the numbers. He also excels when executing the wide zone concepts Van Pelt is likely to incorporate in New England.
Gibson’s four fumbles last season may seem alarming, but one was a borderline drop where he was hit while turning upfield on a screen, and the other was a dropped pitch that he immediately recovered.
Running back was a sneaky area of need for the Patriots, and they could still bolster the position later in the draft. But Gibson provides a more explosive dual threat than the team had last season in Ezekiel Elliott, and he should be around for the foreseeable future after signing a three-year, $11.25 million deal.
OT Chukwuma Okorafor
Chukwuma “Chuks” Okorafor was the first out-of-house signing of the Mayo-Wolf era, and his signing forecasted the team’s eventual strategy in free agency. At 26 years old and with 59 games of starting experience, Okorafor established the team’s goal of adding experienced veterans under 30, with Brissett being the one outlier.
The former third-round pick fell out of favor with the Steelers after Mike Tomlin overheard him criticize then-offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s play-calling. However, reports indicate the incident wasn’t a fair reflection of Okorafor’s character. On the field, Okorafor is a solid pass protector who posted a lower pressure rate allowed than now-Cardinals tackle Jonah Williams, who seemed like a potential Patriots target before free agency began. While run blocking isn’t a consistent strength, he brings an edge and relishes opportunities to pancake defenders.
Okorafor has been a right tackle in the NFL, but he spent his final two college seasons on the left side, where the Patriots have a glaring hole and no obvious candidates to fill it. If he’s comfortable playing either side, expect Okorafor to compete for the starting job and serve as a bridge for whomever the team drafts next month.
WR K.J. Osborn
K.J. Osborn isn’t the true X receiver I expected the Patriots to sign as a veteran stopgap outside, but he’s another excellent locker-room presence with a wealth of experience.
Osborn was at his best as a fourth option in the Vikings’ offense, which features many of the same West Coast principles that Van Pelt has majored in throughout his playing and coaching career. Most of his production last season came on intermediate in-breakers, where he did a nice job snapping off routes against man coverage and making catches through contact. While I wouldn’t call the 5’11”, 203 lber an impactful blocker, he’s shown a willingness to do the dirty work and take on defensive linemen on the backside of plays.
Osborn did lead Minnesota in drops despite a rotational role, which is something to monitor, but it was an anomaly when looking at his full career.
If the Patriots don’t add a big-bodied wide receiver in free agency or early in the draft, I’d expect Osborn to serve as the offense’s primary X in an offense that leans heavily on condensed formations. But ideally, Osborn will serve as a fourth wide receiver and a Z/slot type behind Bourne, Douglas, and a young pass-catcher with more explosive ability.
TE Austin Hooper
The Patriots’ decision to sign Austin Hooper over Pharaoh Brown, who was a great run-blocker and surprisingly effective pass catcher last season, was one of their more odd free-agency moves. But between reports of New England playing hardball with lower-level players and Brown saying he felt disrespected on Instagram, it’s likely the sides couldn’t find a middle ground, and Hooper was their backup plan.
Hooper is a downgrade as a blocker and was primarily used as a checkdown option last season with the Raiders, who had several superior receiving options ahead of him. But he still moves well at 29 years old, has strong hands, and is familiar with Van Pelt’s system from their time together in 2021.
As I mentioned earlier, the Patriots could use more youth at tight end, but Hooper is a solid backup who offers a similar skill set to Hunter Henry at an affordable price.
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