Heat-Hawks Betting Odds, Preview, and Predictions | FanDuel Sportsbook

Tonight, the NBA Play-In Tournament officially kicks off with the 7-seed Miami Heat (44-38, 30-49-3 ATS) hosting the 8-seed Atlanta Hawks (41-41, 36-44-2 ATS). The two South East Division rivals will play one game to determine who takes on Boston in the first round. The winner will travel to TD Garden, while the loser will play the winner of tomorrow night’s Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls matchup for the 8-seed.

Miami won the season series 3-1, and is 6-4 in their last 10 games. Atlanta, meanwhile, was notably mediocre to end the season, going on a win-loss-win-loss streak that spanned nearly four weeks from March 17 to April 4. They most recently dropped two games against the Sixers and Celtics, but remained the 8-seed due to the poor play of the Toronto Raptors.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Heat are 5-point favorites.

Point Spread: Miami Heat -5

O/U: 228.5 points

ML: Heat -205, Hawks +172

Featured Parlay:

Injury Reports

Kyle Lowry (knee) is questionable to play. Lowry has sporadically missed games over the past week dealing with this injury, but returned for the Heat’s final game on Sunday. He played 10 minutes in limited action. Max Strus (finger) is also a game-time decision, while Nikola Jovic (back) will be out for at least four more days.

The Hawks, meanwhile, appear to be fully healthy for tonight.

Heat Projected Starters

PG: Gabe Vincent

SG: Tyler Herro

SF: Max Strus

PF: Jimmy Butler

C: Bam Adebayo

Hawks Projected Starters

PG: Trae Young

SG: Dejounte Murray

SF: DeAndre Hunter

PF: John Collins

C: Clint Capela

Miami Heat Overview

It wasn’t a pretty year for the Heat, who went to the Eastern Conference Finals one year ago and added Kyle Lowry this offseason. Still, they’re back in the Postseason thanks to their defense, forcing steals and stifling opponents inside. This has translated to games against the Hawks. They’ve made life difficult for Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, Atlanta’s two most important offensive players. Young is averaging 19.8 ppg, 35.6% from the field and 20.8% from three. Murray’s at 18.5 ppg and 43.9% from the field, with two strong games and two horrendous ones. If Miami can contain them once again, they’re in really good shape for a win tonight.

The offensive side of the ball is where the Heat are more disadvantaged. They feature the 25th ranked offense which is 4th-worst in 3pt% and last in ppg. The one area where things flow a little bit is close to the basket, where Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo can really go to work. The team doesn’t grade highly in paint production, but Atlanta is 29th in PITP allowed, and Miami found success there in their head-to-head matchups. Expect Butler and Adebayo to create from down low all night, whether in the pick-and-roll or on straight post-ups.

Atlanta Hawks Overview

After underwhelming even more than the Heat and replacing their coach midseason, the Hawks made it to the Postseason, and get a tough matchup to start things off. They finished 41-41, which encapsulates the type of team that they have: perfectly balanced with a good offense and terrible defense. The Hawks are 25th in opponent FG% and 26th in points allowed. Miami, obviously, doesn’t score a lot, but even they’ve exploded against this porous defense, most recently going for 130 on March 6.

Still though, if the offense is clicking, Atlanta has a strong chance to win. They have the seventh-ranked offense, and when they scored more than their season average of 118.4 points against Miami, they went 1-1. The two offensive areas to monitor tonight will be guard play in the paint and three point shooting. Though Miami is second best in PITP allowed, Atlanta has found success on lobs to Capela and Collins, and very well could tonight. Atlanta also isn’t very efficient from three, but when they hit more than the league average of 37.7% from deep, they’re  21-10. Despite Miami’s tough defense, they don’t guard the three too well, and getting the game into shootout territory favors the Hawks more than the Heat.

Prediction

These two teams have played some really fun games, and I’d expect another one tonight, though low scoring overall. Atlanta has a better chance to win if they run up the score, but Miami’s consistent defensive play has proven to be an issue for the Hawks. On top of that, they’ve been able to exploit Atlanta’s defense for uncharacteristic scoring numbers before. For tonight’s win and in, I’m picking the Miami Heat to secure a first-round date with the Celtics on Saturday.

Miami Heat 112, Atlanta Hawks 107