It’s finally happening. 5x All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins is in Foxboro visiting the Patriots, and according to the Athletic’s Jeff Howe, there’s a decent chance he doesn’t leave.
Regarding DeAndre Hopkins and the Patriots:
"There’s optimism the two sides can find a way to reach an agreement."
(Via @jeffphowe) pic.twitter.com/mQAkXrzNkN
— Boston Sports Gordo (@BOSSportsGordo) June 14, 2023
Despite the sides having been connected for months, New England never engaged in trade talks because of Hopkins’ contract with the Cardinals. But the team’s interest level seemed to do a 180 once he was officially released earlier this month.
Hopkins recently told the I Am Athlete podcast he’s looking for stable management, a passionate quarterback, and a great defense in his new team. The Patriots check all of those boxes with Bill Belichick running the show, an already exceptional defense adding dynamic young talent, and a revitalized Mac Jones establishing himself as the clear QB1 in OTAs.
DeAndre Hopkins is expected to visit with the Patriots later today and tomorrow morning, per sources.
For those who have raised some concerns about Pats offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and Hopkins past relationship in Houston, sources have shared there’s no animosity at all.— Dianna Russini (@diannaESPN) June 14, 2023
There’s been speculation over whether Hopkins and former head coach Bill O’Brien would welcome a reunion after a rocky relationship in Houston led to the receiver being traded. But reports indicate O’Brien is open to the possibility, and Hopkins’ three First-Team All-Pro nods under his tutelage prove they work well together on the field. Hopkins’ mutual respect for Belichick is also well-documented, and the upcoming visit implies the coach could overlook his tendency not to practice.
The Patriots were very thin at wide receiver in OTAs and minicamp with key players missing. Projected top receiver Tyquan Thornton is dealing with a soft tissue injury, while free agency headliner JuJu Smith-Schuster is managing a knee injury suffered in last year’s AFC Championship game. This led to DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne taking the lead at receiver with Ty Montgomery, who is listed as a running back, returning to his roots as the top slot option. Parker had his share of highlight grabs, but no one else from the group stuck out in shirts and t-shirts.
If Hopkins and the Patriots agree to a deal, he would add much-needed dependability and credibility to a receiving corp full of unproven and/or inconsistent players. That said, expectations should be tempered.
When most people think of Hopkins, they picture him winning 1-on-1 in an “X” role outside the numbers. This was warranted in his prime when, despite lacking great speed, he could stack or blow past corners with physicality, adequate burst, and a little trickery. And to Hopkins’ credit, he proved he’s still a dependable player last season after posting over 700 receiving yards despite a six-game suspension and sub-par quarterback play.
Hopkins did suffer from poor accuracy, but for comparison, this is what he looked like under Bill O'Brien
Understandably not the same player at 31 y/o based on last season's tape pic.twitter.com/H0zql0ovf8
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) June 7, 2023
All that said, Hopkins understandably isn’t the same player at 31 that he was the last time he and O’Brien worked together. He didn’t show the ability to threaten defenses vertically or consistently win against man coverage, relying almost entirely on back-shoulder fades. Here’s a quick look at Hopkins’ current strengths and weaknesses based on last season’s targets:
Strengths
The idea of DeAndre Hopkins is nice, but upon further review of his 2022 film it’s clear he’s washed.
Nobody should be foolish enough to pursue this player who is clearly on the decline. Simply not worth the risk. pic.twitter.com/efvYAgBQUq
— Easton Freeze (@eastonfreeze) June 9, 2023
+ Exceptional hand strength, ball skills, and box-out ability
+ Understands how to attack and uncover against zone coverage
+ Exceptional awareness and body control along the sideline
+ Takes smart angles after the catch and breaks weak tackle attempts
Weaknesses
– Not a viable deep threat, leading to corners sometimes sitting on routes
– Not quite as dominant at the catch-point
– Missed multiple games to close each of the past two seasons due to lower-body issues, including knee surgery on a torn MCL in December 2021
– Reportedly has a tendency to freelance in routes (not sure how accurate this is)
So Hopkins is still a good player, but he’s more limited schematically and would benefit from fewer boundary reps. Fortunately for Pats Nation, that shouldn’t be a problem in New England. Though Hopkins was dominant outside with the Texans, he played all over the formation and a lot of his production came inside the numbers. In fact, O’Brien used Hopkins more like a bigger Julian Edelman than a true X, making his life easier by using formations to create mismatches.
With that calculated approach being key to maximizing Hopkins in the twilight of his career, here are some strategies O’Brien has and could use to do the same if a reunion comes to fruition.
REDUCED SPLITS
The simplest way to make a receiver’s life easier is by giving them space and options. Reduced splits do this by bringing players from the boundary inside the numbers, keeping defenders honest with a two-way release off the line of scrimmage and an expanded route tree.
DeAndre Hopkins Reduced Split (Weak Flood)
Much of Hopkins’ production in Houston came on intermediate in-breakers from these alignments, often getting wide open with play action creating space over the middle and blazer Will Fuller clearing out deep coverage. These concepts allowed Hopkins to exploit holes in zone or use his size to win at the top of routes and run away from coverage.
Jakobi Meyers Reduced Split (Crosser)
This was a role largely occupied by Jakobi Meyers during his time in New England, mostly on crossers with the receiver’s catch radius and strong hands providing a reliable target for Mac Jones. Hopkins could bring similar dependability as a big target who can make catches in a crowd when necessary.
Tyquan Thornton Deep (Post)
Tyquan Thornton should also help open things up, with the second-year speedster projected to assume a Will Fuller role as New England’s primary vertical threat.
DISPLACEMENT
A staple of O’Brien’s scheme, “displacement” puts skill players in unconventional alignments to create mismatches. Running backs are almost always in the backfield, while tight ends are traditionally the inside-most receiver to their side of the field, either attached to the offensive line or in the slot. As more run-oriented positions inside the box, they tend to attract bigger, less athletic coverage players. By breaking these tendencies, displacement forces defenses to tip their hand or put run-first players in uncomfortable positions.
There are several ways to scheme these advantages, with O’Brien’s most popular being empty formations (which I discuss in detail here). A core concept of his scheme is putting the best playmakers inside and away from outside corners.
DeAndre Hopkins Empty – #2 Weak (Go-Slant)
Hopkins was the #2 slot receiver in these formations, usually to the weak side against overmatched linebackers, running slants with lots of room after the catch.
DeAndre Hopkins Empty – #2 Strong (Rub)
When defenses adjusted by having a top corner follow Hopkins into the slot, O’Brien put the receiver to the strong side next to a tight end to create a rub situation.
Mac Jones to Kendrick Bourne (Slant)
Mac Jones and Kendrick Bourne thrived on slants from empty in their first season together, so adding Hopkins to the opposite slot could create a pick-your-poison scenario for defenses.
DeAndre Hopkins Empty – #2 Weak (HOSS)
Hopkins also thrived on seam routes from empty, using his size to box out safeties and slot corners. As a route that’s more dependent on technique than raw athleticism, this could become a bread-and-butter chunk play for the offense.
Mac Jones to Hunter Henry (Seam)
Jones and Hunter Henry’s best performances have involved well-placed throws down the seam for big gains, making Hopkins and Henry (and likely Milke Gesicki) a potentially dangerous duo on the Patriots’ famous HOSS (hitches outside, slot seams).
O’Brien also schemed downfield opportunities for Hopkins with Nub and Y ISO formations, which put all three wideouts on one side of the field opposite a tight end. This can lead to defenses essentially wasting their boundary corner and the #3 slot receiver running free over linebackers or underneath safeties.
DeAndre Hopkins Nub – #3 (Levels)
Hopkins usually filled that #3 role from these looks, again putting his zone prowess and toughness to use. These looks were paired with “Levels” concepts, which stress the middle of a defense with at least two in-breaking routes at different depths.
STACKS/BUNCHES
DeAndre Hopkins Stack – Slot (Rub)
When O’Brien faces teams who play a lot of press man coverage, one of his go-to solutions is clustering receivers using stacks (two players) and bunches (three players).
These looks are designed to get receivers through “incidental” contact and confusion. To avoid these mistakes, defenders respond by backing off and using predictable checks.
DeAndre Hopkins Stack – Point (Option – Levels)
O’Brien loves to find and exploit these adjustments, typically with an intermediate route from the point player and an option route underneath. Hopkins was usually the underneath receiver, which allowed him to slow-play routes and read his defender’s leverage before breaking in the opposite direction.
DeAndre Hopkins Stack – Point (High-Low)
Hopkins was also used as the point receiver against soft coverage, allowing him to exploit the soft spot over flat- and hook-zone defenders and deep-zone defenders.
