How Many More Games Can the Patriots Win?

For the first time since late October, the Patriots got themselves back in the win column on Thursday night with their 21-18 defeat of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Quarterback Bailey Zappe threw three first-half touchdowns, wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster tallied a season-high 90 yards receiving, and a now 3-10 New England team seems to have some juice heading into their final four games of the 2023 season.

But how many more of them can they realistically win? Not very many, according to FanDuel. The sportsbook has their updated win total for the season at just 4.5:

Patriots Updated Win Total

OVER 4.5             +194

UNDER 4.5          -245

Not only does FanDuel expect the Patriots to win maybe one more game down the stretch, but the under is significantly juiced at -245. Here’s a look at their remaining schedule:

Week 15: vs. Chiefs (8-5)

Week 16: @ Broncos (7-6)

Week 17: @ Bills (7-6)

Week 18: vs. Jets (5-8)

Three out of four opponents with winning records, and another who could have a Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers return from injury earlier than expected. Not a great recipe.

There’s likely a subset of New England fans who would actually prefer their team to lose these next four contests, lining them up to secure a top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Defensive lineman Christian Barmore was asked about the idea of ‘tanking’ on Monday.

“We ain’t here just to give games up,” he said. We’re here to play football.”

The Patriots can only worry about the task in front of them, of course, and that is Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs. Kansas City comes into Foxborough this Sunday riding a two-game losing streak, their first since 2021, and they also come in as 9.5-point favorites according to FanDuel. Here are the odds:

Patriots vs. Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -9.5

Moneyline: Chiefs -460/Patriots +360

Total: O/U 37

I’ll give my picks for this one later on in the week here on CLNSMedia.com, but with the Chiefs still blowing off steam from their controversial ending vs. Buffalo last weekend, New England may be in the way of a buzzsaw on Sunday.

So back to the win total. Three games versus playoff contenders fighting for their postseason lives? I think UNDER 4.5, juiced at -245, is the right side. Would I play it at that number? Probably not.

Make sure to follow Mike on Twitter @mikekadlick and head to FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook, for all of your sports wagering.