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How Patriots Can Improve to 6-0 Road Record vs Bengals

Joe Burrow's potential return could spice things up, but the Patriots are in a prime spot to secure their ninth straight win in Cincinnati.
Taylor KylesBy 7 Mins Read

The Patriots travel to Cincinnati this Sunday looking to remain the league’s only undefeated road team.

Mike Vrabel’s team is coming off its eighth straight win after a division win last Thursday night. Josh McDaniels‘ offense played one of its cleanest games this season, and Zak Kuhr’s defense allowed just two scores despite occasional lapses. The victory cost them one of their best defenders in Milton Williams, who landed on short-term injured reserve with a high ankle sprain, but reinforcements could be on the way for both sides of the ball.

Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), Christian Elliss (hip), Austin Hooper (concussion), Joshua Farmer (ankle), and Terrell Jennings (knee) were all full participants in Thursday’s practice, indicating they should be good to go. Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) has been limited this week, but ascending rookie TreVeyon Henderson should be able to handle the bulk of touches if necessary.

The Bengals enter Week 12 in a very different situation, having lost seven of their last eight games with their playoff hopes dwindling. Star quarterback Joe Burrow was absent in each of those defeats due to turf toe, but he’s trending toward a return after being a full participant in two practices. While that should be a significant boost for Cincinnati’s offense, the team will still be without multiple key players.

Top-tier receiver Ja’Marr Chase has been suspended for spitting, productive edge rusher Trey Hendrickson is out with a hip/pelvis injury, and cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt could miss the rest of the season with a foot injury. The Bengals’ offense has enough talent to survive without Chase, but one of the worst defenses in NFL history is expected to regress even further without two starters.

Cincinnati is the only defense in the league averaging over 30 points allowed per game. They’re also the only team giving up over 400 total yards per game. The Bengals’ ball-hawking secondary has been competitive with eight interceptions, tied for the 11th-most. Still, their one fumble recovery this season is tied for the fewest in the NFL.

The stage is set for a potential blowout if the Patriots bring their A-game, but it will take a few key steps to get there. Here’s how the Patriots can earn their ninth straight win and improve to the organization’s first 10-win season since 2021,

Shadow Tee Higgins with Christian Gonzalez

Chase is a big loss for the Bengals’ passing attack, but Tee Higgins still presents a significant matchup problem. The six-year veteran has produced at a high level despite a relatively low target share, ranking in the top five at his position in touchdowns and yards per reception.

Higgins’ build-up speed, tracking, and ball skills make him especially dangerous on verticals outside the numbers. He can also box defenders out on in-breakers and survive contact for explosive gains.

While fellow receivers Andrei Iosivas and Mitch Tinsley shouldn’t be overlooked, Higgins is on a different level. As such, he should spend most of Sunday’s game lining up against Christian Gonzalez, who shadowed Chase last season when Higgins was out with a hamstring injury.

Gonzalez stuck to the right side last week against the Garrett Wilson-less Jets, but he’s followed top receivers like Emeka Egbuka, Drake London, and Jerry Jeudy in other recent games. The All-Pro corner has allowed some easy conversions from off coverage, and he has yet to intercept a pass this season. Still, Gonzalez remains one of the league’s stickiest man corners and an incompletion waiting to happen on deep targets.

Higgins will make his plays, but he’s unlikely to take the top off or slip out of a tackle with Gonzalez in coverage. Eliminating those big plays will be crucial, but it won’t be the only key to keeping Cincy’s offense quiet.

Shut Down Chase Brown

Chase Brown might not be a household name, but he’s performed like a top-five running back since Week 7.

Brown’s 83.3 rushing grade over that span ranks fourth among qualified backs, and only DeVon Achane and Jonathan Taylor have more runs of at least 15 yards. The versatile back also has 39 catches this season, the most for any Bengal not named Ja’Marr Chase.

Brown thrives between the tackles as a runner and brings explosive potential on arrow routes from the backfield. He should present another tough test for the Patriots’ front, which has been solid defending backs through the air but is bending more than usual on the ground.

“We’ll have to play the run much better, obviously, moving forward,” Vrabel said on Monday. “Brown’s a great back. He makes a lot out of nothing sometimes, and the cracks, his burst, and his contact balance. So, he’s been fun to watch. We’ll have to do a great job this week.”

New England has allowed as many explosive runs in the last three games as they had in their previous eight game combined. They’ve also given up 100 yards in each of the last two weeks, which had previously only happened in Week 4 against the Panthers.

In fairness, the defense has been excellent, swarming to and taking down ball-carriers, and Justin Fields‘ legs were a big factor in Thursday night’s struggles. That said, the defensive line hasn’t been as sturdy, forcing Robert Spillane and the linebackers to deal with second-level blockers.

Losing Williams is obviously a big blow to the defensive line. Still, between Christian Barmore, Khyiris Tonga, Cory Durden, and rookies Joshua Farmer and Eric Gregory, there’s more than enough beef inside for the Patriots to resume clogging lanes if they get back to fundamentals. Barmore taking more snaps at defensive tackle, where he’ll see fewer doubles than he did at his usual nose spot, should lead to more impact plays from the dominant defender. Defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson must also be more consistent in setting and crashing the edge.

The run defense has the players and coaches to bounce back from their current slump, and they must to help prevent a potential upset. In coverage, coaches must do their best to avoid mismatches with Brown against bigger linebackers in space, which could lead to some Achane-esque results in crucial moments.

Feed TreVeyon Henderson

TreVeyon Henderson is on a heater.

The rookie has continued to improve since breaking out in Week 8 against the Browns, grading out as one of the league’s most explosive and elusive backs over that span.

Some may knock Henderson’s stat line due to his two field-flipping scores in Tampa Bay, but even without that game, he’s been a top-ten back by multiple metrics.

The Ohio State product has also been one of the most productive receivers at his position since Week 9.

If Henderson stays on a similar trajectory, he could be in for a monster day in his return to his college state.

No defense is allowing more rushing yards per game than the Bengals, largely because of poor tackling, and they’re the only team with a run stuff rate below 10%. Cincinnati did take a step in the right direction last week following a bye, but they still gave up over 100 yards to the Steelers’ backs.

Most of these struggles have come outside the tackles, where New England’s shaky run blocking has been at its best. According to Next Gen Stats, the offense has averaged +0.04 EPA per play on such carries this season, the tenth-best mark in the league, compared to -0.21 between the tackles, which ranks in the bottom five.

The Bengals have also allowed the most receiving touchdowns and yards after catch to backfield targets this season, with linebackers Barrett Carter and Oren Burks bearing much of that responsibility. Opponents have turned simple screens and mesh plays into explosive gains, and throws to the left flat have been productive go-tos in the red zone. Given McDaniels’ deep bag of running back route concepts, Cincinnati’s second level could be in deep trouble this weekend.

Even if Stevenson returns to the lineup this weekend, Henderson should get plenty of chances to punish the Bengals in space and add to his impressive streak.

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Taylor Kyles is the lead NFL Analyst for CLNS Media covering players, schemes, and tendencies through a New England Patriots-centric lens.

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