Jaylen Brown Building an Outside MVP Case as Celtics Surge

Jaylen Brown appeared poised to receive a night off in New Orleans early this season against the winless Pelicans after the Celtics fell to 0-3 and flew south overnight. Brown tweaked his hamstring late in the preseason and played through discomfort through the season’s opening week, where Boston missed two game-winners at home at the buzzer, suffered their worst loss ever in a quarter at New York, then couldn’t grab a rebound in the final three minutes at Detroit.

So Brown played, and scored 15 points with seven rebounds and four assists in the Celtics’ first win of what he referenced felt like a new era. Even after that slow start to the year, he saw signs of what the Celtics could become.

“We showed flashes early, we had some good wins early. We beat Cleveland,” Brown said. “We had some good wins early. Even that Detroit game, our (third) game of the season, we showed some really good flashes. So it’s been there, it’s always been there, we just have to put it together a little more consistently. I think that’s the nature of the league, how consistent can you be? So that’s what we’re trying to put together.”

Emerging

They’ve won 13-of-19 since New Orleans, including one of Brown’s best games ever on Tuesday against the Knicks, where he scored 42 points in 40 minutes on 16-for-24 shooting with four rebounds and four assists. Boston beat the Sixers, Knicks and Pistons teams that spoiled the start of their season and rose above the play-in, while Brown started the season averaging 29.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 49.7% from the field and 35.1% from three. On Thursday, he missed his first game of the season with an illness after logging 21 straight appearances to begin the year.

That all warrants an outside MVP case in a conversation Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic appear poised to dominate again. Brown reached perhaps his highest level of play ever earlier this week against the Knicks, scoring at will, out-playing Jalen Brunson and hitting teammates over and over again. He committed only one turnover after the first quarter, even when New York turned up the defensive pressure on him late.

“That’s the right play. They started doubling me,” Brown said. “If you got two on the ball, the correct play is to get off of it and that means we got an advantage on the back side. That’s just the right basketball play, no matter what time of the game it is.”

Brown entered the NBA’s MVP ladder for the first time this year on Friday despite the Celtics scoring their largest win of the season without him. He doesn’t sport overwhelming on-off splits (BOS is +4.4 per 100 with Brown ON, +11.6 with him OFF), an MVP debate staple alongside the other individual metrics often cited in arguments.

Entering Saturday, Brown ranked in the 95th percentile in offensive expected plus-minus (+3.0) with a less impactful defensive metric (+0, 65th perc.). Numerous MVP contenders beat out his +2.9 net rating, as well as teammates Derrick White (+4.0) and Payton Pritchard (+3.3). He ranks 20th in LEBRON, also behind White.

Brown doesn’t stuff the traditional stat sheet either, so he’ll lose to many of his peers through that method of deciding an MVP. Fortunately for Brown, other factors come into play, including games played, and competitors could fall out of the mix through the league’s 65 game minimum to remain eligible for awards.

“It’s been a strength of his and really our team since I’ve been here and even before,” Mazzulla said of Brown’s availability. “Is we just have competitive guys who want to play and we’re always talking about leadership, and there are different ways to be able to do that. One of the ways that he leads is just his presence, his competitive nature, but also his dependability. I think as a coach, one of the things you’re always asking for is who you can depend on? The consistency of your best players from a mindset standpoint, from a physical standpoint and I think Jaylen’s done that this year, but he’s done it his entire career.”

The MVP criteria typically involves four main factors:

• Statistical/analytic profile/on-off impact
• Availability
• The narrative
• Team success

Basketball Reference’s MVP tracker leans on the statistical profile of past winners and currently gives Jokic a 57.9% chance to win, followed by Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves and Alperen Şengün. They do not list Brown among the top-10 contenders, which also includes Cade Cunningham and Tyrese Maxey. Brown currently ranks fifth in total scoring (639) and seventh in points per game (29.0). Only Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo boast higher usage rates, and Antetokounmpo just fell for roughly four weeks with a calf injury, which could eliminate him from the field. Dončić also risked becoming ineligible by missing five early games.

Brown returned from his off night, spent in Boston, by dropping 30 points, eight rebounds and eight assists on the Lakers, who missed Dončić among others. That extended a stretch of five games where he scored more than 30 points over his past six appearances since Boston’s bad loss to Brooklyn where Brown faced fourth quarter foul trouble. He averaged 33.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 7.2 APG with 1.8 SPG and 3.8 turnovers while shooting 48.3% from the field and 36.6% from three while the Celtics scored wins over the Pistons, Cavs, Knicks and nearly the Wolves.

That puts the team success category into play. The Celtics tied the Magic and Heat for the fourth seed in the packed Eastern Conference with their fourth straight win, and can surpass the Raptors with a win on Sunday. And his imprint is visible all over their turnaround, including sounding off the officiating he receives one game before Boston won its first free throw attempt of the season in Cleveland. That night, sending Payton Pritchard could take Darius Garland for the game-icing basket, he motioned for Pritchard to go ahead. Brown took a back seat from scoring that night with 19 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists that set up Pritchard’s 42 points.

Brown suggested to Mazzulla that Jordan Walsh could become a defensive stopper for the team, a development that grew into 11 Walsh starts where Boston went 9-2. The idea originated on an early season plane ride, and Mazzulla affirmed constant communication over what players see and ideas they have.

“Jordan has the body type to do it,” Brown said. “He’s athletic … he got a 6-7 frame, long arms and I’ve seen him in practice be, defensively, very active. Those 6-7 wings, they give trouble to smaller guards, the Brunsons, the Maxeys, putting a bigger body on them. We have a lot of small guards on our team, so we have to bring that level of physicality.”

The narrative

The expectation never changed for the Celtics to remain competitive, Brown said after Boston beat LA on Friday. He downplayed his individual aspirations while presenting a similar outlook before the season, making this year less about showing what he’s made of with Jayson Tatum out and more about maintaining winning. Playing with less talent after offseason departures, he acknowledged that reality and accepted it, rather than complaining.

He’s had to do it the hard way. Brown takes the most two-pointers in the league, many from the mid-long range, and constantly embraces contact inside. Despite that, he only ranks 19th in free throw attempts despite that approach. Last month, he reflected on the weight he’s carrying.

“Scoring is a lot more effort than it was (previously),” Brown said. “You just gotta exert a lot more energy play-to-play offensively.”

That’s the narrative that could improve Brown’s aspirations. It’s one thing to post big numbers with a fellow star out. It’s another to do it in the context of winning, develop talent around you and bringing the team back to the playoffs. Brown’s path, if not statistical, will need to come from his constant availability, a stunning Celtics finish atop the east and the notion that he carried Boston through a season without Tatum.

All three feel feasible now. Though Brown might’ve hurt himself from that perspective by not presenting this season as one about showing he can lead a team at the highest level. But soon, his actions and the scoreboard could make him hard to ignore.

“That’s the narrative or the storyline that everybody wants to go with, but I’m gonna approach it the same way I’ve always approached it,” Brown said before the season. “Obviously, I’m gonna have more responsibility with Jayson not being here, but it also gives a chance for other guys to step up, so empowering other guys, trusting your teammates more, trying to accelerate guys’ learning curve and play some good basketball. I think that’s what people want to see.”