Latest Celtics Losses Raise Concerns About Sustainability of Strong Start

Jaylen Brown placed most of the blame for Monday’s loss to the Pistons on his shoulders. Despite scoring 30+ points for the eighth time over his last nine appearances, he missed seven free throws and committed four untimely turnovers.

Two lates miscues at the free throw line could’ve pulled Boston within two points with two minutes remaining. Instead, the Celtics lost their second straight game and now lead Miami by only 1.0 game in the packed standings ahead of their first meeting on Friday. The Heat play in Brooklyn on Thursday on the front half of a back-to-back.

Joe Mazzulla also left the defeat confident about the shots they created and the way they met Detroit’s physicality. The Celtics’ process improved compared to their loss on Thursday in Milwaukee, he said, perhaps their worst offensive showing all season. The turnovers that happened in the second half were normal, they adapted to foul trouble, then rallied late behind Derrick White’s 14 fourth quarter points.

But another slow shooting night, Sam Hauser leaving the game with an ankle sprain and dwindling depth at the center position recently set up an intriguing second quarter of the season for a team that emerged as a surprise east power early on. We’ll soon learn how sustainable the Celtics’ strong start proves.

“I thought we answered the call,” Mazzulla said. “They’re one of the bigger, more physical teams in the league. I think we’re right there. Obviously, there are 4-5 possessions, some of the live ball turnovers, but I liked our mental toughness, I liked our physical toughness throughout the game.”

True, compared to expectations entering the season, taking arguably the best team in the Eastern Conference down to the final minute twice and defeating them in the third game would undoubtedly qualify as a success. Despite a 12-7 loss in the offensive rebounding department, Boston’s ability to manage that battle while playing only one center all game, drawing more free throws than a bruising opponent all stand as positives from a disappointing defeat. Yet the more the Celtics become judged by their qualifications for contending in the conference, some concerns emerged from the two losses during the NBA Cup layoff.

Hauser leaving Monday’s game sent the rotation sideways despite missing all 11 shots between the last two games. With Josh Minott logging the reserve center minutes before Jordan Walsh and Hugo González slid into stints inside, Boston appeared thin for the first time all season, losing 47-14 in bench points. Meanwhile, four out of six Detroit bench players won their minutes. Walsh and González both suffered foul trouble, playing inconsistent second half minutes before Anfernee Simons closed over Walsh and finished 0-for-5 from threes, having struggled to break through this year like Hauser despite providing an element they’ve needed.

For the seventh straight game, Luka Garza did not play rotation minutes. Xavier Tillman Sr. and Chris Boucher have also fallen out of the mix.

“As we talked about before, (Minott) is learning to play different positions,” Mazzulla said. “He’s not necessarily a five man, but he’s gonna be matched up with different guys. Games like this, I thought tonight had a playoff-type feel to it, and games like this call for another level of physicality that we have to be able get to … and I think for more times than not throughout the game, we met that challenge.”

While Queta performed admirably again, setting crushing screens, thriving in the handoff game and finishing as the only positive Celtics starter (+5), Boston effectively conceded the rebounding battle by playing small against the league’s second-best offensive rebounding unit. Much like they have all season, they prioritized other areas, including their own ability to crash.

That becomes harder playing small, and only increases the need for jump shots to fall from all over the floor. A strong shooting month in November (37.1% 3PT, 9th) dipped into their first sub-30% three point shooting game since Nov. 3 at Milwaukee on Thursday. Their mid-range shooting remains elite, attempting the second-most per game with the fourth best efficiency (12.9, 45.4% FG).

“There has been good and bad to the lineup,” Mazzulla said on Wednesday. “We’ve had moments of forcing more turnovers, we’ve had moments of being able to play with a higher pace, our layup attempt percentage has gone up. Our offense is obviously a little bit better. Our defense has to be better and that zone threw their rhythm off like that. So it’s just a matter of finding different ways to be impactful and it could change every night depending on who we’re playing against.”

It’s easy to imagine the team’s jump shooting falling down from that level, their spot up efficiency ranking in the 87th percentile of the NBA so far (1.13 PPP), according to Synergy. The Celtics have shot 40.2% from three (5th) in wins and 30.4% in losses (29th). They’re running more pick-and-roll productively with Queta, but with the smaller lineups on the floor in Milwaukee, they found themselves dribbling one-on-one often. They don’t run in transition often, rarely cut and never post-up. Increasingly, Brown is carrying the offense with his tough shot-making and improved passing.

It’s a miracle that this offense stands among the best in the NBA — a credit to excellent execution and coaching.

The Celtics have thrived despite their personnel limitations, and they’ve made difficult decisions on the fly that have resulted in revelations like Walsh’s emergence. He played so well offensively in recent weeks that his tradeoff in crunch time against Simons became a legitimate second-guess following Monday’s loss, but Minott’s similar rise earlier this season warrants caution against both Walsh’s individual offensive tear and the team’s 10-2 stretch persisting into the late stages of the year.

And that’s fine.

The Celtics entered this season with modest expectations, even internally. Their competitiveness against nearly all competition to this point has been both admirable, fun to watch and even potentially helpful for the future whenever Jayson Tatum returns. But if you said entering this season that Boston would be playing Queta and Minott at center, almost exclusively relying on jump shots and ranking 18th in defensive efficiency, it would’ve been difficult to imagine a start this competitive — still tied for fourth in the conference as of Wednesday.

“A lot of positive,” Brad Stevens said on Wednesday. “We’ve seen good growth, which is important. I think we’re in the midst of it as every team is and there’s a fine line between feeling really good about yourself and not feeling so good about yourself, and we just have to stay in the work. I’ve looked at us on the positive side, a work in progress, where I’m really encouraged by both the work and the progress. We’re making strides.”