NFL

Lazar: Best Players Available for the Patriots After Trading Out of First Round

In a draft that didn’t see a trade until the 13th selection, the first time since 2015 that every team in the top ten stayed put, Bill Belichick traded out of the first round on Thursday night.

The move comes as no surprise to anyone as we’ve discussed for months the Patriots bridging the gap between their first selection (23rd overall) and their next pick in the third round (87th).

The Patriots acquired the 37th overall pick from the Chargers and an additional third-rounder (71), and now have five picks on day two.

As we have discussed, this draft is particularly robust for the Pats on day two due to the depth at certain positions such as wide receiver, offensive line, and quarterback.

And the value at New England’s top positions of need, such as tight end and linebacker, is on day two, where need aligns with talent rather than reaching in the first round on a player.

Following the trade, ESPN’s Adam Schefter said during the draft broadcast that New England feels like they’ll get the same player they wanted at no. 23 with the fifth pick in the second round.

Patriots Director of Player Personnel Nick Caserio shed some light on the move during a call with reporters early Friday morning, referencing the tier system New England uses in the draft.

The Patriots will sort players into pockets or tiers where they feel that one player isn’t significantly better than the other, and Caserio said there’s a large pocket of players on day two.

Along with resetting our Patriots big board and New England’s 13 selections over the next two days, we’ll try our best to predict who that player might be that Schefter referenced in his report:

DL A.J. EPENESA, IOWA

Although we didn’t expect him to fall entirely out of the first round, Epenesa’s athletic profile and lackluster combine workout have him still on the board. In our final mock draft, we had the Patriots trading back to no. 29 with Tennessee to draft Epenesa, so maybe the Pats read the board perfectly and knew that he’d be around even later than that. Epenesa is the easiest projection to make for New England in this draft for several reasons. He fits like a glove as a weak-side defensive end that can kick inside on third down. Epenesa’s ideal length and power at the point of attack make him the draft’s best run defender at the position and an exceptionally sturdy edge setter. He dominates most of his engagements, holding at the point of attack and moving blockers out of gaps with immense hand strength. Epenesa also uses his heavy hands to win as a pass rusher on a deadly two-hand swipe move and a stiff snatch move once he locks his hands inside the blockers’ chest. The Pats know exactly what they’re getting with Epenesa and what role he can fill as a day one starter.

S XAVIER MCKINNEY, ALABAMA

Out of all the prospects still available after round one, McKinney is the most shocking from this perspective. The Alabama product after testing in the 20th percentile at the combine with a well below average 40 time of 4.63 seconds. But he’s a swiss-army knife that impacts the game from all over the field. We are talking about a player that did everything from play centerfield, guard slot receivers and tight ends, come down into the box as a strong safety and pseudo-linebacker, and even rush the passer as a blitzer or as an edge rusher. McKinney has terrific instincts and length from high zone to disrupt passes over the top, but his 40 time might signal that he’s not built to play as a single-high deep defender. Even with that role off the table, McKinney will still be an extremely effective box safety that can play short and intermediate zones, split-safety structures, and man coverage.

OT JOSH JONES, HOUSTON

After seeing six tackles go in the first round, and two graded below Jones in our system, we knew something had to be up with the Houston product. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah hinted at a medical red flag on Jones that might explain the fall, but there was also a wide range of opinions on him, with some teams pegging him as a first-rounder while others had him squarely on day two. We had Jones as our OT5 and our number three target on our Patriots big board, so snagging him at the top of the second would be a steal. He is a battle-tested left tackle prospect that checks all the boxes from a size (6-5, 319, 34-inch arms) and athletic perspective with the necessary foot speed and lateral agility to mirror pass rushers. He’s also a quick and effective puller, climbs to the second level with ease, and reaches difficult blocks in zone schemes. All of Jones’s flaws are coachable, and he’d offer an excellent insurance policy to oft-injured left tackle Isaiah Wynn and 2019 third-round pick Yodny Cajuste.

LB ZACK BAUN, WISCONSIN

Baun is a classic case of the media reading too much into smoke that he’d land in the first round. Although we love his versatility and pass-rush upside, Baun is a jack of all trades, master of none prospect, but Belichick usually does well with those kinds of players. He’s at his best rushing and disrupting off the edge, but he can also drop into coverage and play off the ball linebacker some. Baun leaned into comparisons to former Pats linebacker Kyle Van Noy by saying he studies Van Noy and models his game after past and present linebackers in New England. As a pass rusher, Buan uses an effective two-hand swipe move to soften the edge as a basis for a deep arsenal of rush moves that also includes a deadly inside spin and long arm (speed to power). Although he’s inexperienced in this role, Baun projects for some teams as an off-ball linebacker that shows adequate lateral agility to scrape and tackle at the second level. We expect that Baun’s lack of a dominant trait and back-to-back seasons with foot injuries at Wisconsin are the reasons why he’s still available.

S ANTIONE WINFIELD, MINNESOTA

Based on the film, Winfield, Jr. was a first-round prospect, but his size (5-9, 203 pounds) and durability concerns were too much to overcome. Winfield is the most instinctive safety in this class. The son of former NFL All-Pro corner Antione Winfield, the younger version is a ball-hawking safety that makes excellent reads, transitions, and plays on the football. He can flip-and-run with a receiver moving at full speed or read the quarterback’s eyes to jump a route he has no business being near. Despite his smaller stature, he also isn’t afraid to mix it up in the box or lay the wood from deep zone and offers some flexibility to play man coverage in the slot. There are very few flaws in his game, but he’s undersized.

WR DENZEL MIMS, BAYLOR

Mims is another prospect to fall victim to the divide between the media and the league. Most draftniks had Mims as a first-round selection, but the league was never that high on him, seeing him as a second-round player in the top 50. Although Mims tested in the 95th percentile at the combine, he’s a lot more than a terrific athlete in spandex. At Baylor, Mims was the alpha in their offense, averaging nearly 1,000 yards per season over the last three years to go along with 28 career touchdowns. He’s a former High School track star with 4.38 speed and outstanding initial burst off the line to get over the top of defensive backs and makes terrific downfield adjustments on off-target throws using an enormous catch radius to haul in passes (6-3 with nearly 34-inch arms). Mims is more of a linear athlete that doesn’t win with short-area agility or crisp route breaks, but he flashes smooth vertical transitions on quick posts and stop-start ability on comebacks to pair with his vertical route running.

DL YETUR GROSS-MATOS, PENN STATE

Gross-Matos likely fell to this point due to an ongoing legal situation involving him and a group of upperclassmen hazing underclassmen at Penn State. But the on-field talent is there for an already highly-productive collegiate player to grow into a stud in the pros. Gross-Matos had 17 sacks and 34.5 tackles for loss in his final two seasons at Penn State, using excellent explosiveness and length to defeat blocks without much technical polish. At 6-5 with nearly 35-inch arms, Gross-Matos uses his length effectively to eat up grass quickly as he turns the corner and implements a stiff speed-to-power rush. He also loves an arm over move as he knifes into gaps as an interior rusher, and has terrific lateral agility to shake blockers. Gross-Matos’s hands are incredibly raw. He’s often late to fire and needs to be more violent with his punches. He’s also a bit slow processing blocking schemes and reading out tackles. In many ways, Gross-Matos reminds us of Chandler Jones coming out of Syracuse.

TE COLE KMET, NOTRE DAME

There was buzz that Kmet might sneak into the backend of the first round as the top tight end available. We are relieved that the Patriots didn’t reach on him. Kmet offers three traits that could lead to success at the next level in an in-line role: massive size (6-6, 262 pounds), efficient blocking, and solid burst and speed up the seam. If you’re looking for a nimble-footed tight end that can cut and create separation, Kmet isn’t your guy. But his large catch radius and frame offer a big-bodied rumbler between the numbers that can also be a potential matchup weapon in the red zone. As a blocker, Kmet has all the necessary strength and lower-body flexibility to be effective. However, his technique and balance are suspect, falling off of blocks and ending up on the ground too often. Still, with coaching, Kmet should round into a very good blocker and offer some big plays in the passing game.

DL MARLON DAVIDSON, AUBURN

Davidson’s lack of eye-popping plays and big-time production made him a reach in the first round. The Auburn coaching staff did some odd things with Davidson in his four years as a starter in their system, such as standing him up on the edge in a two-point stance at over 300 pounds. Belichick would be the first to tell you that consistency and durability are incredibly underrated, and Davidson played nearly every game and was the same guy every week. He didn’t just play on the edge, taking some reps at both defensive end and tackle, with better production in those spots. He plays with natural leverage and pad level thanks to his height (6-3), has decent lateral movement to use his quickness inside, and alters his stride length as a pass rusher to confuse blockers. But his biggest weapon is heavy hands, landing accurate punches into the chest that helps him control engagements. Davidson won’t flash on tape like teammate Derrick Brown, but he’ll set the edge, play with terrific gap and rush discipline, and push the pocket.

QB JALEN HURTS, OKLAHOMA

We had to include one quarterback, and how fun would this scenario be for the Patriots? There’s absolutely no doubt that Hurts can win as a passer and a runner, and he got substantially better with his footwork and throwing mechanics in the pocket at OU. Hurts is a “see it, throw it” passer that lacks anticipation between the numbers and sometimes hesitates to pull the trigger on open receivers. He’s generally accurate to all three levels, though, and due to his playmaking ability, offensive play-callers can manipulate defenses into giving Hurts easier decisions and more prominent passing lanes by using his legs as a threat. As a ball carrier, Hurts isn’t as fast as someone like Lamar Jackson, but he’s extremely slippery with excellent contact balance to run through tackles and builds up to a pretty good top speed. On top of his physical gifts, Hurts is a natural leader that has “face of the franchise” qualities at the most important position. A good ceiling comparison for Hurts is Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.

UPDATED PATRIOTS BIG BOARD (EXCLUDES PLAYERS ABOVE)

UPDATED PATRIOTS DRAFT SELECTIONS (13 TOTAL)

2nd round – 37th overall

3rd round – 71st overall

3rd round – 87th overall

3rd round – 98th overall

3rd round – 100th overall

4th round – 125th overall

4th round – 139th overall

5th round – 172nd overall

6th round – 195th overall

6th round – 204th overall