Lazar: Patriots Currently Have the Least Explosive Passing Attack in AFC Playoffs

The Patriots should feel good about dismantling the Jacksonville Jaguars to officially clinch a playoff berth in Sunday’s 50-10 beat down at Gillette Stadium. 

New England’s blowout of the Jags was one of the most lop-sided affairs in the NFL this season, and Mac Jones led all quarterbacks in EPA per play and drop-back success rate this week. 

The Patriots’ offense’s success seemed to fuel Jones, in particular, who was amped after all three of his touchdown passes and even the four others scored by the Pats on the ground. 

However, as fun as the post-New Years party in Foxboro was, the reality is the Patriots are entering the 2021 postseason as the least explosive passing attack in the AFC playoffs. 

On Sunday, the Pats were so successful through the air because the Jacksonville defense let them play on their terms. In other words, this doesn’t feel sustainable against stingier defenses that they’ll face in the playoffs. 

When Jones gets the ball out quickly, attacks short zone defenders, and is presented with third-and-manageable situations, he shreds opposing defenses. But New England threatens only a small quadrant of the field. 

We can show you countless examples from Sunday’s win where Mac reads out zone structures and throws against out-leveraged zone-droppers to keep the Pats offense moving. 

Here, the Jags show pressure with the double-A gap “mug” front but drop off into cover two. Jones sees the defense back off the blitz, manipulates the short zone defender nearest to his target with a quick shoulder fake, and hits Jakobi Meyers in the soft spot to move the chains. 

New England’s average distance to a first down on third down was only 3.8 yards, which allowed the Pats to stay in their comfort zone and go 8-of-10 on third down.

In this play, the Pats run their double dig scheme past the sticks, where Jones will read the “rat” defender in the middle of the defense. When Jags linebacker Damien Wilson falls off Jakobi Meyers to rally back into the middle, Mac stays on Meyers and throws into single coverage.

If you’re looking for early-down success, look no further than Josh McDaniels’ quick-game concepts. 

The Pats play two-on-two on the weak side of the formation with a snag concept on first down. When the linebacker takes running back Rhamondre Stevenson in man coverage (flat), it opens up an easy throw to Kristian Wilkerson on the snag route, and Mac doesn’t hesitate. 

The fact that Jones operates so smoothly with clean reads of shallow coverage players is good, and nobody is looking down on Mac or the Pats offense for keeping the train on schedule. 

However, it’s a style of play that is becoming predictable and difficult to implement when the Patriots aren’t leading on the scoreboard right out of the gate. 

Although they took it to a Jags defense that couldn’t get them out of their ideal passing script, defenses in the postseason won’t be so willing to give Jones his bread-and-butter throws. 

Furthermore, the Pats’ passing offense only produced two explosive plays against Jacksonville, and Mac had just one completion over 20 air yards. Jones’ average target depth was 6.6 air yards in the first three quarters, with two of his three deep attempts coming in garbage time.

Plus, one explosive was a 20-yard screen to tight end Jonnu Smith, while the other was a 20-yard touchdown to Kristian Wilkerson on a schemed shot play (fake bubble screen-and-go).

Defend the dink-and-dunk style all you want. But this passing chart from Jones is neither explosive nor sustainable in the playoffs when defenses game plan New England’s short game.

The problem isn’t that the Pats are mostly successful within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage because they can win by staying ahead of the chains and playing complementary football. 

No, the issue is that they are only successful throwing the ball short. They couldn’t hit on deeper throws all year, even against the Jaguars (Jones ranks 21st out of 32 quarterbacks in completion rate on passes over 20 yards).

Currently, there’s no evidence that their current personnel can beat a defense over the top, so what happens when the coverage smothers the shorter routes as Buffalo did last week, for instance? 

Here is a perfect example from an ideal field position to take a shot at the end zone. The Pats send Meyers in motion with a single-high safety, and when he’s followed, Mac knows it’s man coverage. Jones gets into the gun and checks to a play with three verticals: a go by Wilkerson (bottom left), a seam by Kendrick Bourne (left slot), and a deep corner route by Meyers (left). 

As we roll the play, Bourne is Mac’s best option with the safety helping to Meyers and Bourne at least somewhat winning on his route. Nobody is that open, but Bourne gives Mac a chance. Instead, he holds the ball and takes a sack (time to sack – 3.66 seconds. There is plenty of time to throw).

Here’s another vertical play design on New England’s adaptation of the 989 concept against cover-one man (single high). 

The Patriots pair the two go routes on the boundaries with an over route or crosser from Meyers. Again, none of the three downfield receivers create much separation. Mac picks the best option with Wilkerson, who has a step on his man. But the throw isn’t catchable as it sails over Wilkerson’s head incomplete. 

The downfield routes were so bad at one point that Bourne and Wilkerson ended up in the same place at the top of the screen. The Pats use a 3×1 formation to stress single-high man, but everyone is covered, and Jones had to take off running. 

At other points, the Patriots created downfield separation by isolating the post safety on a post-corner route by Wilkerson. But Wilkerson drops a catchable ball when the defender appears to swat the top of his helmet with his hand.

Before Pats fans get heated, Mac Jones isn’t the primary issue here. He was throwing to three undrafted wideouts and an elevation from the practice squad was his primary deep threat (Wilkerson).

New England’s lacking downfield passing game against the Jaguars wasn’t because they didn’t try, making it even more worrisome. We would also be more confident in the Patriots’ passing offense if they were an elite unit at picking up yards after catch. But they are currently 15th as a team in yards after catch per reception (3.0).

Admittedly, there’s a chance the Patriots execute their limited passing script paired with a potent rushing attack at such a high level that they score enough points to win in the postseason. 

Plus, their best deep threat, Nelson Agholor, has been inactive due to a concussion over the last two weeks and will hopefully provide a more explosive downfield option (let’s face it, targeting Wilkerson on all three deep throws wasn’t what they had in mind).

But until the Patriots acquire a go-to receiver for Jones to target downfield, New England’s passing offense will be easier to defend and that doesn’t bode well for their chances in the postseason.