The Patriots initially did exactly what we all expected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft.
New England started the night by trading their original selection at the 21st overall pick to the Kansas City Chiefs for a haul that netted the Pats eight points on Rich Hill’s trade value chart.
After acquiring the 29th, 94th, and pick No. 121 from the Chiefs, Bill Belichick stunned the entire NFL community by selecting Chattanooga guard Cole Strange with the 29th pick in the draft.
Rams reaction to Patriots selection of Cole Strange at #29.
This is hysterical. pic.twitter.com/ADzqt4lizQ
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) April 29, 2022
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Belichick and the Patriots reach on players, and often they get the last laugh. But they had other NFL decision-makers literally laughing at them on Thursday night. Above, Rams head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead roared in laughter at the selection, with McVay saying, “we wasted our time watching him thinking he would be there at 104.”
The strange decision to select the FCS guard from Chattanooga has nothing to do with Strange himself, who is an intriguing prospect due to his athleticism and polished technique.
#1 IOL #RAS 2022
Cole Strange is a OG prospect in the 2022 draft class. He scored a 9.95 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 7 out of 1289 OG from 1987 to 2022. https://t.co/RRKLKRB7la #RAS pic.twitter.com/0hjxfwUr9b
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 13, 2022
Following a stellar week at the Senior Bowl, Strange posted a relative athletic score of 9.95 out of ten, ranking seventh out of 1,289 guard prospects from 1987 to 2022.
When you turn on his tape from last season, his game against Kentucky stands out. On Chattanooga’s opening touchdown drive, Strange’s physicality and athleticism are on full display, with the Mocs running behind #69 at left guard all the way down the field for six points.
Strange peels off a double-team to pick up a free penetrator, kicks out an edge defender as the puller on a counter scheme, makes a reach block on a second-level player to open a gap on third-and-short for a huge run, and finishes on a double-team to produce a positive run.
After trading away Shaq Mason for a fifth-round pick and losing Ted Karras in free agency, the Patriots had an obvious need at guard and likely filled it by selecting Strange in the first round.
The downside to selecting Strange in the first round has nothing to do with the player, who has all the traits and athletic tools to develop into a long-term starter in New England.
However, the criticism comes down to the positional value of selecting a guard with their top pick, a guard that many experts saw as a day two value, and how that ultimately helps the Patriots compete in a highly-competitive AFC packed with teams loading up on talent.
According to a study by Pro Football Focus’s Timo Riske, guards are near the bottom in terms of average surplus-value by position, which is the difference between the contract value of a player (rookie cost) on a rookie contract and his actual value to the team (performance value).
Furthermore, during the 2021 season, the top 32 players at guard produced the fourth-lowest wins above replacement of any position, ranking ahead of defensive line, running backs, and centers.
As the top-32 guards produced a total WAR of 4.89 last season, the top non-quarterback position was cornerbacks, generating a wins above replacement of 26.9.
Washington corner Trent McDuffie, by the way, was Kansas City’s selection with New England’s original selection, an elite prospect with tremendous coverage skills and play speed.
Ultimately, the Patriots’ evaluation of Strange, who, again, certainly has exciting traits but was projected by most to go much later than the first round, could end up being spot on. He could end up being as good as Logan Mankins, for example.
But the bigger question is this: even if Strange develops into a Pro Bowler, does drafting him with the 29th overall move the needle for the Patriots in the AFC?
The Pats’ decision to select a player at a non-premium position while corners, linebackers, and receivers were flying off the board around them is a more significant issue than reaching on Strange.
We all witnessed Buffalo’s 47-17 massacre of the Patriots on Wild Card Weekend back in January, a game where New England was dominated and ran off the field by their division rivals; does drafting Strange on Thursday night shrink the gap between the Patriots and the Bills?
Regardless of how good Strange ends up being in the NFL, the answer is a resounding no.
