Patriots Mailbag: After a “Great” 2021 Draft, Pats Banking on Bill Belichick and Matt Groh to Deliver Again

The chatter at the NFL owners meetings in Palm Beach, Florida, as it pertains to the Patriots was clear: why did Bill Belichick have such a quiet start to the offseason?

In a press conference at the annual coach’s breakfast, Belichick himself was asked questions about New England’s lack of free-agency spending as the rest of the AFC loads up on talent. 

“We spent a lot of money last year. Those guys are all young. They’re under contract,” was Belichick’s short response. 

Following Belichick’s remarks on Monday morning, Patriots owner Robert Kraft was asked a similar question, to which he said, “I think we have a lot of young players that are coming into their own. People get all excited with the headlines now, but in the end, it’s what happens through the entire year.” 

The big free agency splashes grab the headlines in March, while Kraft and Belichick’s explanations for the Patriots’ quiet free agency were the top stories this week. 

However, there was a bigger message than the comments about free agency, the Pats’ new-look coaching staff, or even Kraft putting pressure on Belichick to win in the playoffs.

According to all parties, the best aspect of the Patriots’ offseason a year ago wasn’t their free-agent haul but rather their draft class, and that’s where they want to make their splash. 

The Pats chairman and CEO’s most positive comments about his football team were about the success the team had in the 2021 NFL Draft. 

Along with drafting quarterback Mac Jones in the first round, second-round pick Christian Barmore and fourth-rounder Rhamondre Stevenson made immediate impacts as rookies. 

“I’m happy that I think we had a great draft last year and made up for what happened the previous four years or so,” Kraft said. “I look forward to hopefully having a great draft this year. That’s the only way you can build your team long-term and consistently.”

To that end, Belichick offered glowing praise for new Director of Player Personnel, Matt Groh, whom Belichick said “put the draft together last year as the director of college scouting.” 

Groh, whose father worked with Belichick in four different stops, is the son of longtime NFL coach Al Groh and the brother of Giants receivers coach Mike Groh. After his father landed him a job in Belichick’s scouting department, Groh worked his way up the ladder in New England. 

“He’s scouting multiple areas for us, has had multiple responsibilities from area scout on the West Coast to the Southeast, regional scout, national scout,” Belichick said. “I feel like he’s the best person to step into the personnel job. He’s as good as anybody that we’ve had in that position.” 

Given that Texans general manager Nick Caserio and Raiders GM Dave Ziegler previously held Groh’s current position, the last line is extremely high praise from Belichick.

There’s now a lot riding on the Patriots hitting on multiple draft picks to fill holes and add top-of-the-roster difference-makers. But they promoted Groh from college scouting director because they view him as a solution to their past draft struggles. 

After mostly sitting out free agency, the onus is now on Belichick and Groh to nail the 2022 NFL Draft to find their major talent additions. 

Without further ado, let’s empty the mailbag as we are within 30 days of the 2022 NFL Draft: 

Whenever we try to predict the next Bill Belichick trend, we have to follow the money. In the case of a positionless defense, the money tells us that safeties and slot defenders are undervalued while outside cornerbacks are skyrocketing in value. We saw this offseason with J.C. Jackson and Carlton Davis cashing in during free agency, and you can expect it to carry over to the draft with the likes of Ahman Gardner and Derek Stingley. Corners are expensive, and to keep a lockdown number one rostered, you need to pay up every three to four years. Instead, Belichick could be going the cheaper route by loading up on interchangeable defensive backs such as Jabrill Peppers or Jalen Mills last offseason. In the past, New England’s coverage system was simple but effective if you had the cover talent. Mainly, a cover-one man scheme with divider rules to play off post-safety and robber help. The positionless model could lead to more man-match principles, different bracket calls to handle star receivers, and the secondaries’ positional flexibility to win with disguise. At some point, you worry about individual matchups catching up to a defense like that. But if Belichick can keep the dial spinning, it’s a faster and easier defense to replace injured or departed players. In other words, losing a player of Jackson or Stephon Gilmore’s caliber wouldn’t bring down the whole system. If this carries over into the draft, expect Michigan’s Daxton Hill, Baylor’s Jalen Pitre, and Houston corner Marcus Jones to be on their radar. 

Since this question relates to the “positionless” defense, let’s tackle a few things here. First, the Patriots already have man-match principles in their bag. Belichick is mostly a cover-three match (Rip/Liz) guy, which is a system he helped create with Nick Saban in Cleveland. The idea of Rip/Liz is to help the defense carry four verticals out of a three-deep structure by having the slot defender (usually a short/hook zone) match verticals from inside receivers. 

(photo credit: @JamesALight)

In Saban and Belichick’s terminology, the quarters match structures are called cover-7. Other DCs might refer to it as “palms” coverage. The secondary plays out of a two-deep safety shell in cover-7, but it’s not a traditional spot-drop zone scheme where each deep defender takes 25% of the field. Instead, the two deep safeties will typically lock into bracket calls to support the primary coverage defenders. Some cover-7 variations also have one safety bracket, while others play a half-field zone assignment. The goal is to have either a bracket or deep safety over the top of a dangerous receiver. Could we see more of it? Sure. It’s something they already do. 

The distrust in Patricia and Judge comes down to two things. First, neither were successful as head coaches away from the nest. And two, Patricia is viewed as a defensive-minded coach while people are more comfortable with Judge on special teams, yet both will have a significant role on offense this season. Those are all fair points, but a positive spin to it is being ignored, as the question points out. Being an assistant coach is much different than being a head coach; plenty of lousy head coaches are great lieutenants. Although Patricia and Judge will have a heavy hand in the game-planning offensively, my gut still tells me neither will call plays. I still want to believe that it’ll be Nick Caley, who worked with Mac Jones last season and has been coaching offense in New England since 2015. Plus, Belichick himself will be heavily involved in coaching Jones and the schematic shifts the offense is undergoing this offseason to cater the scheme to their current personnel. Let’s see how it goes. For better or worse, we have no control over it, and this is the direction they’re headed. 

Putting some pressure on Belichick is one thing, but Kraft knows that he has the best head coach in the NFL and would be a fool to let Belichick walk after a few down years. With that said, the pressure is there to make the Patriots a Super Bowl contender again. Although Kraft doesn’t get involved in things like the coaching staff and scheme, he influences major roster decisions such as big-money acquisitions and how the Patriots use their early draft picks. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw something a little flashy in the draft, like maybe a wide receiver, earlier than some think.

The NFL is becoming more and more like the NBA these days, with players taking control of their futures in pre-agency. Stars are forcing their way out on the last years of their contracts and mostly getting their team of choice and their bag of money. Ultimately, I wouldn’t expect the Pats to win a bidding war for Metcalf or Brown if they become available. Teams will line up with first-round picks and $20 million per season, which will be too rich for New England. But the 2019 wide receiver class has some other names I’d watch out for, such as Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, and Darius Slayton. Those players won’t get Tyreek Hill money but would still help the Patriots offense, especially McLaurin, who is a dream fit. Keep your eye on tiers two and three from that group rather than the top-tier players like Metcalf and Brown.

I’ve moved linebacker down a few spots on my priority list behind corner, offensive line, and wide receiver. But the Patriots could still use an impact player in the front seven. If they view someone like Devin Lloyd as a game-changing prospect for the defense, you still take the player. On the other hand, what they don’t need is another placeholder. They have bodies to play at the second level now, so the day two or three need is alleviated. When you have Uche, McGrone, and others waiting for playing time, what’s the point of drafting another day two linebacker? If you feel like a day-one guy changes the deck completely, it’s still something they should consider. With Dont’a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy unsigned, they need more hybrid linebackers who can play on and off the line. Top 50 prospects like Lloyd and Minnesota’s Boye Mafe fit the mold. 

As much as I’d like to buy into the McGrone and Peppers hype, McMillan is the one player we’ve seen operate in the Patriots’ scheme and offer some optimism. McMillan was good in camp last year, and the coaching staff expected him to play a pretty significant sub-package role. If he stays healthy, they probably don’t bring back Jamie Collins. Until we see it from McGrone and Peppers, I’m leaning towards McMillan. If healthy, I expect Peppers to have a role as well. 

I get questions about Shaun Wade every week. Nobody besides the people watching him practice towards the end of last year knows if Wade will make an impact. Even though he was better in college as a nickel/slot, the team is developing him as an outside corner. Wade has upside due to his size and length. If he’s coached up to use his playing strength more effectively in press-man, Wade could stick in New England. But I’m not going to pretend to have those answers right now. Let’s see this summer. 

Speaking to a source who speaks to Odell regularly, it wasn’t surprising that the star wideout ended up in Los Angeles. Beckham told those around him that he wanted to play in LA and found his way to the Rams. Obviously, money talks, and it takes two sides to get a deal done. But I’d be surprised to see Beckham leave the Rams or the LA area. Let’s also not lose sight of the fact that Beckham could be out for a good chunk of the 2022 season. I’ve always loved the player and scheme fit, but Beckham might not be a factor until November or December.