Patriots Mailbag: the Pats Need to Get Back to Dominating in the Trenches

The Patriots have a winning formula that is both obvious and true for most football teams, but it’s a formula that’s attainable for New England.

Bill Belichick built his roster to win in the trenches, and in the Pats’ nine wins, they’ve done just that: balance on offense, protect Mac, and make opposing offenses one-dimensional. 

In their five losses, there’s a common theme: the Pats don’t play to their strengths on the line of scrimmage. For instance, Jones is under pressure on 35.1% of his drop-backs when New England loses, while in their wins, that pressure rate drops to 23.5%. 

Furthermore, Jones has been under pressure on over 30% of his drop-backs in all five losses.

Some of that is due to passing game volume due to the Patriots being behind in those games, with Mac dropping back 42.2 times in losses compared to 28.3 drop-backs in wins. 

But, again, that speaks to balance offensively, with the Pats’ rushing success rate equaling 44.3% in their nine victories versus a 31.7% success rate on the ground when they lose. 

Defensively, it’s a similar story, and it starts with opponents running the ball. Although opponents still lose EPA when they run against New England’s defense in their wins, they’re more successful on the ground, allowing them to keep the Pats off-balance and close out games (45.8% success rate in Pats losses vs. 34.4% in Pats wins).

Last week, we saw the Colts end the Patriots’ comeback bid with a 67-yard touchdown run by Jonathan Taylor that put the game on ice in Indianapolis. Similarly, the Dolphins and Saints ran out the clock in their wins over the Pats, taking away game-winning drive chances for Jones.

Some teams have ways to win without being dominant in the trenches. However, New England is a team that needs to control the line of scrimmage.

Although it sounds cliche, the Patriots can get back in the win column this week if they re-establish their toughness in the trenches as they did against Buffalo in Week 13. 

Without further ado, let’s empty the mailbag for Week 16 of the NFL season: 

My concern level with the run defense is at a DEFCON 4. On the one hand, I’m not overly concerned with a team beating the Patriots by just running the football (see: Titans). Indianapolis needed a blocked punt TD, two takeaways on defense, and several self-inflicted wounds to beat the Pats without a passing game. On the other hand, there are too many examples where New England couldn’t stop the run when they needed to late in games. There are really no X’s and O’s to discuss here. The system is sound, as are the techniques. It’s an execution thing. They have the personnel to shut down the run. Now they have to go and do it when it’s winning time. 

Keeping track of the NFL’s new protocols might take a law degree to read through all the language. With that said, here’s a summary based on how I understand it:

• Vaccinated players: under previous protocols, the league tested vaccinated players once a week. Now, they are tested for three reasons. One, they have symptoms of COVID-19. Two, they were a high-risk close contact (targeted testing). Three, they voluntarily ask to be tested.
• Vaccinated players return to play: a player can return immediately if they are asymptomatic for at least 24 hours and either A. Receive two PCR test results that are negative or produce CT values of 35 or greater, or B. Receive a negative PCR result or CT values of 35 or greater and a negative Mesa test result from a test taken within 24 hours of the PCR test, or C. Two negative Mesa test results.
• Unvaccinated players: no changes. A mandatory ten-day quarantine with a positive result.

Hopefully, that gives you all an outline when we are trying to sort through this mess. 

I’m glad someone asked about the punt protection unit because I haven’t been able to break it down since I got my hands on the end zone angle of the blocked punt. First, I want to apologize to Jahlani Tavai for putting this on him in my post-game reactions. It was tough to see the interior blocks on the TV broadcast, but it wasn’t on Tavai, and that’s my bad.  

Teams are stressing the B-Gaps to attack New England’s protection rules. The Pats coach the blockers on either side of the long snapper to help Joe Cardona, then work out to the B-Gap rushers because Cardona has a tough block to make with his head down initially. 

The breakdowns are happening because teams are stressing the A and B-Gaps with their rush, knowing that the Patriots will block it that way. 

On the punt block against Indy, the Colts use a stunt to get a rusher onto Cardona immediately, and fullback Jakob Johnson hangs in the A-Gap for an extra beat, maybe because he’s worried about blocking the wrap rusher on the stunt. By the time Johnson gets out to his assignment, it’s too late to get in front of Adams. 

Although there are probably other ways to block it up, this is a technique issue and not schemed-related. They need to coach and execute the block better. Plain and simple.

I was surprised to hear Harrison and Johnson read so much into Mac’s comments, and I didn’t read the situation that way. In my mind, Mac was trying to lead his team by holding himself and everyone else accountable for their preparation. Sure, there’s always some element of the rookie wall with all first-year players, and that’s even tougher on quarterbacks. But I don’t see Mac being overwhelmed by it yet. If it were a veteran quarterback making those comments, would we be saying he’s overwhelmed? For now, those comments feel like media fodder more than what is happening behind the scenes. 

I never doubted that Jackson could develop into a true lockdown corner against number one receivers, but we hadn’t seen him consistently perform in that role until now. I want to reserve full judgment until the end of the season. Still, credit Jackson for taking his game to the next level. He has become less volatile because his route anticipation and attention to detail via film study are improving. In other words, he’s doing his homework now, allowing him to cover the full route tree effectively rather than just ball-hawking and shutting down verticals. He also seems to have a better read for what’s going on around him to understand route combinations. As long as his play doesn’t fall off a cliff down the stretch, I’d be very comfortable with giving Jackson number one corner money (~$18M per year). If the Pats signed him to a four or five-year deal, they can stretch out the cap hits and have Jackson through his prime. I expect them to go the franchise tag route first, though.

Meyers is a restricted free agent at the end of the year who will likely be tendered at the second-round level (projected contract – one year, $3.97M). If a team signs Meyers to an offer sheet, they would then need to give the Pats a second-round pick for Meyers. If that’s the route New England goes, my guess is nobody bites on an offer sheet. In terms of his long-term future, on the one hand, Meyers is a steady Z/slot in the Pats’ offense. We all know he can run routes, and his releases and breaks are sudden and shifty. However, it feels like the Pats could use a more dynamic weapon in such a high-volume role in their scheme. Someone who is better after the catch and faster through his stem to create separation earlier in the down (Julian Edelmanish). Everyone always clamors for X receiver talent on the outside. But the nature of the Pats offense and Mac Jones’ skillset suggests an explosive Z would produce more. Whether in the draft or via a veteran acquisition, there’s a more productive receiver out there for that role than Meyers. That’s not to say Meyers can’t have a role on the team as a third receiver who plays in the slot. And, no, I wouldn’t count on Nixon or Wilkerson being that guy either. 

I got a chance to watch Gilmore against Buffalo last week. I want to preface this by saying I’m not trying to bash Gilmore to make the Pats look better. The trade compensation was still too light, and nothing Gilmore does moving forward will change that for Belichick. With that said, Gilmore’s tape, especially on Diggs, was rough. He hasn’t given up any big plays in Carolina. But he’s not moving the same and was put in a blender by Diggs on a few occasions. Gilmore isn’t moving well. As he distances himself from offseason surgery, that’ll probably change some. But I didn’t see the smooth athlete and footwork that we are accustomed to seeing with him. It’s either rust, injury, or both. Either way, he would’ve made the Pats’ secondary better but not significantly better in his current form.

When the great PatsCap asks a question, we have no choice but to answer. I believe J.C. Jackson will be on the Patriots’ roster next year one way or another, so that’s one. I also think that Matthew Judon will continue to excel in Belichick’s system, so that’s two. And Matthew Slater will make it as long as he’s playing. If we look for new names, they’re challenging positions to crack in the AFC, but Hunter Henry and Shaq Mason are two players with a chance. I could also see a bounce-back year from Jake Bailey, who has been dealing with a nagging right knee injury all year. 

Love the question. Although it depends on the opponent, here’s a play that has been highly effective for the Patriots on third down this season.

The concept is a double dig scheme. The Pats are putting the robber or middle of the field help in conflict. The robber can help the inside dig or the outside in cut but not both. Here, Mac sees the robber staying in the middle of the field and waits for Kendrick Bourne to clear the underneath help to throw against single coverage. 

With Hunter Henry, Jakobi Meyers, and Bourne, the Pats have receivers who run those routes effectively.