Patriots Roster and Practice Squad Projection 1.0

After twelve days of training camp practices, the Patriots are just a day away from their preseason opener against the Houston Texans.

After a slow start on offense with the unit installing plays in the Red Zone, where defense naturally has the upper hand, we’ve seen much more competitive sessions of late. Bailey Zappe even noted that Bill O’Brien’s squad is ahead of schedule, which was almost unfathomable under last year’s regime. The defense, which retained all but one player from last season and added three studs at the top of the draft, is picking up where it left off after an exceptional 2022 campaign.

Now admittedly, a roster projection done before preseason even begins is bound to have its misses. There will also inevitably be injuries, acquisitions, or other roster moves that are impossible to foresee. But after several padded practices, there’s value in trying to assess where certain players stand at this point in the offseason.

So without further ado, here’s my first attempt at predicting what the Patriots’ 53-man roster and 16-man practice squad could look like by the regular season opener against the Eagles.

Special thanks to Miguel Benzan (@patscap on Twitter) for his practice squad eligibility insights.

Quarterback (2)

Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe

Practice Squad (1): Malik Cunningham

Cut (1): Trace McSorley

Despite talk of a potential starting quarterback battle entering camp, Mac Jones has proven with his consistency and production that he is the clear top dawg in New England. Bailey Zappe has been mostly solid in camp, showing impressive zip on passes and more willingness to challenge downfield coverage than he did last season, but his accuracy has been noticeably erratic at times.

The true quarterback competition is between veteran Trace McSorley and undrafted rookie Malik Cunningham. Both bring a different element to the room due to their dual-threat ability but Cunningham is younger, more dynamic, and offers positional versatility as a quarterback transitioning to receiver. Though McSorley is known for being an outstanding locker-room presence, he has not proven himself to be an NFL-caliber passer.

Running Back (4)

Rhamondre Stevenson, Ty Montgomery II, Pierre Strong Jr., Kevin Harris

Practice Squad (1): J.J. Taylor

The Patriots need someone to step up behind Rhamondre Stevenson, who was forced to carry an unrealistically large load in 2022 that wore him down late in the season.

Kevin Harris is the top in-house candidate to spell Stevenson on early downs, looking a bit lighter and more explosive than he did his rookie year. Pierre Strong’s homerun speed and burst make him a change-of-pace and receiving option, and he’s shown flashes in 1-on-1 receiving drills against linebackers. Bill Belichick noted that both second-year backs are way ahead of where they were last season, but they still have a lot to prove, and adding a reliable veteran ahead of them seems inevitable.

The team has shown interest in household names Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Leonard Fournette, but those dominos are unlikely to fall until Cook (who seems like a near-lock to sign with the Jets) gets the ball rolling.

The team seems to be taking a cautious approach with Ty Montgomery, who tore his ACL in last year’s season opener and hasn’t practiced since getting banged up early in training camp. He offers positional versatility as a receiver-running back hybrid but is more of a pure 3rd-down specialist and lacks Pierre Strong’s dynamic athleticism. Still, the team knows what they’re getting from the veteran and he’s a commodity in pass protection.

J.J. Taylor to the Patriots’ practice squad is as reliable as the sun rising in the morning and setting at night.

Wide Receiver (5)

DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, Tyquan Thornton

Practice Squad (2): Tre Nixon, Kayshon Boutte

Cut (1): Thyrick Pitts

The Patriots’ veteran trio has received the lion’s share of reps with Mac Jones this offseason, making them virtual locks to make the roster. Rookie spark plug Demario Douglas has consistently repped with this top group, asserting himself as a nearly impossible cover in 1-on-1s and making defenders look silly in tackling drills. It would take a Shakespearian decline for him not to earn a spot.

Things get more interesting at the fifth receiver spot, where Tyquan Thornton appears to have a lot of ground to make up. Though he had a solid showing in Tuesday’s practice, he’s spent most of his reps with Bailey Zappe and Trace McSorley despite being taken in the 2nd round just a year ago.

Sixth-rounder Kayshon Boutte, on the other hand, has come on strong after a slow start and made some of the most impressive catches we’ve seen in camp. Considering Boutte was seen as the 2023 class’ top receiver before a tumultuous season tanked his draft stock, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him earn a spot if his momentum carries into joint practices and preseason games.

I’ve seen it suggested that the Patriots should keep six receivers, but that seems unlikely for an offense that will feature a lot of two-tight end sets. So if Boutte continues to shine and Thornton fails to establish himself, the second-year speedster could come down with a case of the Foxboro flu.

Tight End (2)

Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki

Practice Squad (2): Matt Sokol, Anthony Firkser

Cut (2): Johnny Lumpkin, Scotty Washington

Hunter Henry and Mac Jones has rekindled the spark we saw from the duo in 2021 before injuries derailed Henry’s season. He’s been the quarterback’s favorite target and a force in the Red Zone. Mike Gesicki, like Boutte, has made some dazzling catches of late after a quiet start to camp. When/if Gesicki and Jones really start to click, the tight end’s catch radius could make him a formidable possession receiver in the Patriots offense.

Veterans Matt Sokol and Anthony Firkser have both repped with the projected top unit. Sokol brings depth to the in-line tight end spot as a solid blocker who can occasionally win contested catch situations. Firkser is more of an H-back with positional versatility, having spent time as an off-ball tight end, fullback, and even lining up in the slot from empty looks. I could see either player being elevated to the active roster based on game plan needs.

Johnny Lumpkin looks like an extra lineman on the field, while Scotty Washington’s athleticism and catch radius have flashed at times. I wouldn’t be surprised if the team finds room for them, particularly with Henry and Gesicki slated to be free agents in 2024, but I couldn’t find room for them in this projection.

Offensive Tackle (4)

Trent Brown, Riley Reiff, Conor McDermott, Sidy Sow

Practice Squad (1): Andrew Stueber

Non-Football Injury (1): Calvin Anderson

Trent Brown is one of the best at his position when on his game, which is why the team has been extremely cautious with the injured tackle and limited his reps. This seems like a wise move, as Riley Reiff and Conor McDermott have both struggled in competitive team drills (though Reiff has mostly looked good in 1-on-1s).

If/when Calvin Anderson comes off of NFI, I think he takes McDermott’s roster spot as the team’s swing tackle.

Rookie Sidy Sow saw his first action with Mac Jones on Tuesday, spending time at right tackle, but it was as part of a very heavy rotation and he’s still learning to play the position at the pro level.

Andrew Stueber is an unknown commodity after missing all of last season with a torn hamstring, but both Bill Belichick and Director of player personnel Matt Groh have called him essentially an extra draft pick. He’ll likely land on the practice squad for further evaluation and development.

Interior Offensive Line (4)

David Andrews, Cole Strange, Atonio Mafi, Jake Andrews

Practice Squad (3): James Ferentz, Bill Murray, Kody Russey

Physically Unable to Perform (1): Mike Onwenu

Cut (1): Chasen Hines

Until we receive news on Mike Onwenu’s status, I can’t assume he’ll be ready for the season opener after undergoing ankle surgery this offseason. Rookie Atonio Mafi, who seemed like Onwenu insurance when New England took him in the 5th round, looks like the mauling guard’s top backup. Though Mafi is a converted defensive lineman who’s still learning the nuances of offensive line play, he’s received praise for his pedigree and intelligence. I’m excited to see Mafi performs against other opponents, as he told me his experience on the other side of the ball gives him an understanding of how defenders want to attack him.

Bill Murray, another converted defensive lineman, seems like a highly respected and well-liked member of the team, but he was demoted from the top unit quickly after the pads came on. I think he’ll stick around, but he may still be a project.

Murray’s demotion led to an elevation for second-year player Kody Russey, who’s been the primary left guard since Cole Strange suffered an apparent left leg injury midway through camp. Though he had a tough rep against Christian Barmore in 1-on-1s where Barmore lifted him off the ground with a hump move, Russey’s a smart, physical blocker who the team seems confident in. He could be a top candidate for elevation if New England wants a more experienced presence at guard.

Rookie 4th rounder Jake Andrews was projected to be a center-only, but he’s mostly worked at guard with the projected depth players while James Ferentz remains David Andrews’ top backup.

Chasen Hines is an intriguing player but has yet to stand out from what I’ve seen, and the team has several interior line options ahead of him.

Interior Defensive Line (4)

Lawrence Guy Sr., Davon Godchaux, Christian Barmore, Carl Davis Jr.

Practice Squad (3): Daniel Ekuale, Sam Roberts, Jeremiah Pharms Jr.

Cut (1): Justus Tavai

Lawrence Guy held out of OTAs and minicamps because he was unhappy with his current deal. But the captain and community leader showed up for camp and should continue to dominate the run beside Davon Godchaux, who added more weight this offseason to hold up in the middle of the defensive line.

Christian Barmore has been a force in training camp, so a healthy 2023 could lead to a breakout season for the talented pass rusher.

Daniel Ekuale has been a solid fill-in for Barmore when the Alabama product missed time. He should go unclaimed on waivers due to a past suspension for performance-enhancing drugs back in 2018. I rostered Carl Davis over Ekuale because New England likes to use primary nose Davon Godchaux as a tackle to beef up its front against good rushing attacks.

Sam Roberts is a talented, but unrefined young player worth developing, and he’s gotten some reps with projected starters.

Jeremiah Pharms Jr. seems like a player New England really likes, as he’s worked on both sides of the ball for them over the past two seasons.

Justus Tavai has yet to stand out.

Edge Defender (5)

Matthew Judon, Deatrich Wise, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Keion White

Physically Unable to Perform (1): Trey Flowers

Cut (1): Ronnie Perkins

Keion White is an imposing physical specimen, and that translates when watching his power and athleticism during position drills or between the whistles. He should earn a rotational role early on and should become a serious problem under renowned defensive line coach DeMarcus Covington.

Anfernee Jennings has been heavily involved with the projected top unit in camp as an early-down run-stopper and brings special teams value.

Trey Flowers was placed on PUP the same day he was signed, which isn’t a big blow thanks to New England’s depth up front. He brings valuable experience as a key player on two Super Bowl-winning teams, so getting him on the field would be a bonus. Despite playing fewer than 70 snaps before landing on IR due to a foot injury last season, he showed flashes of the power and hand-fighting that made him so dominant for New England.

Ronnie Perkins has yet to play an NFL snap, and unfortunately, I haven’t seen anything to suggest that will change with the Patriots.

Linebacker (5)

Ja’Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Mack Wilson Sr., Marte Mapu, Chris Board

Practice Squad (1): Calvin Munson

Injured Reserve (1): Raekwon McMillan

Cut (3): Olakunle Fatukasi, Diego Fagot, Joe Giles-Harris

Jahlani Tavai doesn’t get enough credit for how reliable, well-rounded, and versatile he is. Despite being exclusively an early-down presence, he made an impact in coverage and even flashed as a pass rusher last season. I’m expecting another good year from him.

Mack Wilson was benched defensively midway through last season, seemingly due to poor recognition and run defense. But he’s shown positive flashes in camp that should earn him another shot and is a core special teamer.

Rookie Marte Mapu is more linebacker in name than use, as he warms up with the safeties and spends most of his time in the defensive backfield. His intelligence and physical talent have popped consistently throughout the offseason program, and he should serve as a Kyle Dugger-like Swiss Army knife who lines up wherever he’s needed based on the situation.

Though Chris Board is primarily a special teams ace, he’s played enough linebacker in camp to warrant this designation. Board showed potential defensively with the Lions in limited opportunities, particularly on passing downs, so it will be interesting to see how he factors into the rotation for New England.

Calvin Munson is in his third stint with New England as a special teamer and downhill presence. He’s spent a surprising amount of time with the projected starting unit, so don’t be surprised if he makes the practice squad as an elevation candidate when the team needs more physicality at the second level or extra depth in the kicking game. Particularly with Raekwon McMillan’s unfortunate season-ending Achilles tear.

Olakunle Fatukasi and Diego Fagot have yet to catch my eye.

Cornerback (6)

Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, Jack Jones, Marcus Jones, Myles Bryant, Isaiah Bolden

Practice Squad (1): Ameer Speed

Cut (3): Shaun Wade, Quandre Mosely, Rodney Randle Jr.

17th overall pick Christian Gonzalez has lived up to the hype, immediately sliding into the top cornerback role and never looking out of place. Gonzalez could be more consistent with his work at the catch-point, where DeVante Parker has dominated in their matchups, but he’s receiving valuable reps and is already showing growth.

Myles Bryant has been much-maligned due to his struggles in man coverage, but he’s an exceptionally smart and physical player who should be put in positions to succeed more often with the team’s current depth at cornerback. Bryant was also named an offseason award winner, showing the respect he has both on and off the field. I’d expect Jonathan and Marcus Jones to be the primary slot options in man coverage and obvious pass situations.

Jack Jones has been the most disruptive player in the secondary when he’s on the field, but his uncertain future means the team must prepare for his potential absence. Enter 7th-round rookie Isaiah Bolden, who has prototypical size and athleticism for the boundary. Bolden is still a work in progress and has surrendered quite a few receptions when on the field, but he seems like the top option at outside corner behind Gonzalez and the Joneses while offering dynamic kick return ability.

Ameer Speed looks like he’ll be a core special teamer for New England, as he’s been used in several different roles and even seen reps at personal protector. But because he’s a project defensively, I think a practice squad role is most likely early on.

Shaun Wade, Quandre Mosely, and Rodney Randle Jr. have been solid in reserve roles and boast intriguing physical profiles but I think other players are more deserving of practice squad spots.

Safety (5)

Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, Jalen Mills, Joshuah Bledsoe

Practice Squad (1): Brad Hawkins

The top-four players in this group don’t require much explanation, but Jabrill Peppers in particular deserves recognition. He’s received praise from players and coaches alike, who have gushed about Peppers’ increased comfort and leadership in the system. This was reflected in the veteran being named an offseason award winner.

Joshuah Bledsoe may be buried behind several talented players, but he’s still managed to get reps with roster locks at the position and seems well-liked by the team.

I couldn’t find room for Brad Hawkins on the 53, but he’s in a similar boat as Bledsoe as someone who’s gotten some opportunities with the projected starters, albeit not as many.

Kicker (1)

Chad Ryland

Cut (1): Nick Folk

The Patriots took Chad Ryland in the 4th round, so there’s a 0% chance he gets cut. Though he’s had his misses, Ryland’s shown a powerful leg and impressed for the most part.

Nick Folks’s consistency has been a blessing for the team after a brief dark age after the Stephen Gostkowski era. He could be traded to the Dallas Cowboys, who have a glaring need at the position, where he’s been commuting the past few years to be with his family.

Punter (1)

Bryce Baringer

Cut (1): Corliss Waitman

Bryce Baringer has looked like the best punter in camp, blasting punts and showing impressive control in situational drills.

Second-year lefty Corliss Waitman has been solid in his own right, and I could see him earning a practice squad spot, but the edge in this competition goes to the 6th-round draft pick.

Long Snapper (1)

Joe Cardona

Cut (1): Tucker Addington

Joe Cardona’s not going anywhere.

Coverage (4)

Matthew Slater, Brenden Schooler, DaMarcus Mitchell, Jourdan Heilig

Physically Unable to Perform (1): Cody Davis

Cut (1): Raleigh Webb

Brenden Schooler quickly established himself as one of the best special teamers in the league last season, and DaMarcus Mitchell was an impact player in the kicking game despite having the build of a defensive lineman. They’re a strong young core to build around.

Jourdan Heilig was been working extensively with Matthew Slater, signaling the team has big plans for the undrafted rookie.

Raleigh Webb was a tough cut because he’s been a core special teamer, and I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m dead wrong here. But upon further review, he was just okay last season and doesn’t provide much as a receiver.