Patriots head coach Bill Belichick finds himself in another game of chicken with a Pro Bowler heading towards unrestricted free agency.
According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Patriots star cornerback J.C. Jackson is expected to hit the open market, and the team will not franchise tag the 26-year-old Jackson.
The decision to avoid the franchise tag with Jackson, who earned his first trip to the Pro Bowl this past season and has 25 career interceptions in four seasons, is surprising on the surface.
However, the $17.5 million cap hit to retain Jackson on the franchise tag is a major reason why the team is reluctant to go in that direction with their current cap situation.
Realistic cap-saving moves for #Patriots (cap savings via @patscap):
– Convert Matt Judon’s salary into signing bonus = $6.64M
– Extend Hunter Henry = $5 million
– Extend Shaq Mason = $3.6M
– Extend Jake Bailey = $2.4M
That would free up $17.6M in space.
— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) February 27, 2022
Patriots cap wizard Miguel Benzan (@PatsCap) projects that the Patriots will have $4.896 million in cap space when free agency opens on March 16 if they don’t make any cap-saving moves. Above are some theories as to how the Patriots could clear cap space.
Ultimately, New England would need to use multiple cap-clearing maneuvers to fit Jackson’s franchise tag under the cap once the 2022 league year begins. Clearing cap space would help the fit Jackson’s tag, but it wouldn’t give them much flexibility to do anything else in free agency.
Instead, the Patriots will take a conventional path by their standards with Jackson by allowing him to shop his services on the open market, get his best and final offer, and bring it back to Bill Belichick to see if the Pats’ head coach will match the market value for his star cornerback.
There’s a precedent of the Patriots matching offers when players reach free agency. Most recently, David Andrews agreed to return to the Pats in the eleventh hour on a multi-year deal. Looking further back, Devin McCourty and Dont’a Hightower were retained similarly.
If Jackson signs an extension with the Patriots, his 2022 cap number will be nowhere near the $17.5 million he would cost the team against the cap on the franchise tag.
The Patriots can spread the cash flow over multiple seasons, thus decreasing his 2022 cap number. For example, Matthew Judon’s 2021 cap number on his four-year, $54 million deal was only $6.3 million last season, while Jonnu Smith’s cap number was just $5.6 million.
The catch is that the Patriots will need to make a difficult decision, risking losing the player altogether to a godfather offer or paying more than they originally intended to retain his services.
With Jackson hitting the open market, Over the Cap projects he will sign a four-year contract worth $18 million per season with north of $50 million in guarantees. A massive payday.
Jackson’s market is expected to be robust with a future bidding war set up by agent Neil Schwartz likely, who also represented Darrelle Revis.
Current Bucs corner Carlton Davis is also expected to get paid, but Jackson is the number one corner on the market, and the rest of the options behind Jackson and Davis aren’t great.
There are aging former Pro Bowlers in Stephon Gilmore and Casey Hayward, an ideal No. 2 in Kansas City’s Charvarius Ward, and zone corner and former Panther first-rounder Donte Jackson.
Assuming the Patriots don’t retain Jackson, corner becomes top priority in a defensive scheme that favors man coverage and relies heavily on its secondary to play shut down coverage.
With cornerbacks set to work out at the combine in Indianapolis on Sunday, first-round prospects Derek Stingley (LSU) and Andrew Booth Jr. (Clemson) will not participate in drills.
Patriots fans should look out for Washington’s cornerback duo Trent McDuffie and Kyler Gordon, Florida’s Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary from Auburn, and Georgia CB Derion Kendrick as potential early-round draft targets to replace Jackson in New England’s secondary.
For complete reports on that group and more corners who fit New England’s scheme, check out my 2022 NFL Draft rankings spreadsheet.
