This Sunday, the 1-4 Patriots, reeling from back-to-back blowout losses, hit the road to face the 2-3 Raiders for a second consecutive season. After facing two of the league’s top defenses in the Saints and Cowboys, New England’s offense will face a less formidable challenge in Vegas, whose defense ranks bottom-1o in EPA. The Raiders have been solid against the pass, but their run defense has allowed the 10th-most yards/game in the NFL. Unfortunately, New England hasn’t done anything well offensively through five, ranking last in points/game and 7th-lowest in yards/game.
There’s plenty of blame to go around when a group is this ineffective. Mac Jones has gone just one game without a turnover this season, while his mechanics and internal clock have shown signs of regression dating back to 2022. The receiving corp also lacks a consistent, dynamic threat for defenses to respect, let alone fear.
But in my opinion, the bulk of this inefficiency stems from top guards Mike Onwenu and Cole Strange being in and out of the lineup due to injury.
Onwenu missed the entire summer and Week 1 following ankle surgery, and he’s only played 100% of snaps twice this season. Strange suffered a knee injury in the first week of training camp and didn’t play until Week 2, then left in the 3rd quarter against the Jets and hasn’t seen the field since.
Their absences, and a lack of quality depth up front, have produced one of the league’s worst pass-blocking units. Despite Mac Jones averaging the 5th-fastest time to throw among quarterbacks with 100 attempts, New England is one of just five teams to allow a pressure rate over 40%. Even on quick dropbacks lasting fewer than 2.5 seconds, the Patriots have been losing at an alarming rate.
Atonio Mafi, who moved from nose tackle to guard three seasons ago, has played significant snaps every week. To his credit, the rookie has shown growth since the preseason and had the best game of his young career in Week 4 against Dallas. But he was benched for Riley Reiff early last week due to ineffective play, only to be thrown back into the fire before halftime so Reiff could fill in for an injured Onwenu.
Reiff had a solid performance against New Orleans after being activated from injured reserve with a knee injury suffered in the last preseason game. Unfortunately, Reiff, Onwenu, and Strange have all been limited with lower body injuries this week, leaving their statuses for Sunday up in the air.
Poor right tackle play has significantly compounded New England’s interior issues. Vederian Lowe filled in admirably for Trent Brown in Week 2, which led to him jumping Calvin Anderson on the depth chart. But Lowe’s allowed the highest pressure rate among tackles with at least 50 pass-blocking snaps, as well as the 2nd-most total pressures at the position behind the Giants’ Evan Neal.
While the Raiders’ front isn’t as loaded as others New England has faced this season, one-man wrecking crew Maxx Crosby presents a massive challenge.
Crosby spends most of his snaps on the defensive left, setting up a frightening mismatch against Lowe or whoever lines up at right tackle for New England. But the offense overcame a similar situation in last year’s meeting when Conor McDermott was the top option at right tackle. Thanks largely to a well-constructed game plan, Crosby generated pressure on fewer than 10% of dropbacks and didn’t record a single tackles for loss.
Here’s how New England managed to slow Vegas’ 2x Pro Bowler and how it could translate in Sunday’s matchup.
Pass Game
When the Patriots traveled to Vegas last season, they tried minimizing Crosby’s impact with chip help, quick throws, and play action. Mac Jones recorded his fifth-fastest average time to throw of 2022, as well as his fifth-highest play action rate. Jones managed just a 52.1 passer rating, and Crosby recorded three times late in the 2nd half, but the game-wrecker was held without a sack or hurry for the entire game.
Here’s an example of Hunter Henry helping give his quarterback time in the pocket.
Facing 3rd & 7, Crosby has his ears pinned back to rush the passer against McDermott. Henry puts a solid hit on the edge rusher before releasing into his route, giving McDermott time to get in position and push Crosby around the quarterback. This provides Jones with over four seconds of protection before he ultimately decides to scramble.
Tight ends and backs will need to be calculated in their chips, as overzealous or half-hearted blocks will do little to slow Crosby down. The interior will also need to be on high alert in case he loops inside on a line game to disrupt the pocket, which Mafi struggled with against the Saints.
Assigning multiple blockers to Maxx Crosby is much easier said than done
Whoever's at RT for the #Patriots on Sunday, they'll need plenty of help with maximum effort and textbook execution behind it
IOL also needs to be on high alert in case LV whips out some crazy stunt pic.twitter.com/c1T6DG9hgp
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) October 11, 2023
It will be interesting to see how much extra attention Bill O’Brien pays Crosby, considering Lowe has received little chip help this season despite tough matchups. This led to some quick losses last week, including a drive-killing sack during a two-minute drive before halftime.
Belichick had a ton of praise for Cam Jordan last week, so it's odd that Vederian Lowe almost never got help vs the 8x Pro Browler
Lowe had a few solid reps, but Jordan won the battle handily, especially when NE was driving before the half pic.twitter.com/FL8hTty8RV
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) October 9, 2023
Unsurprisingly, Lowe fared much better when given help from his tight ends, especially on play-action dropacks.
Last week was the #Patriots first time using max protection this season, and it led to some pretty pockets
QBs still need to make the throws, and routes need to be on-point, but this strategy has to continue moving forward (and will have to vs Maxx Crosby) https://t.co/3qytcRckCc pic.twitter.com/0qK0W3qgPm
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) October 11, 2023
If extra resources aren’t consistently dedicated to Crosby, timely throws will be essential. But as I mentioned earlier, quick dropbacks haven’t been a guaranteed pressure neutralizer for New England this season, so Jones’ decision-making and receivers’ route details will have to be on-point.
It would also help if New England’s rushing attack, which hasn’t cracked 60 yards since posting 157 against the Jets, could do its part in keeping Crosby on his toes. Luckily, there were flashes in both last season’s matchup and the Patriots’ loss to the Saints for the offense to build on.
Run Game
New England ran for a season-high 206 yards last season against the Raiders, with most of their successful runs going in Crosby’s direction. This was no small feat, as Crosby’s ability to rapidly diagnose plays and toss blockers makes him an exceptional run defender. New England’s plan for attacking him was simple but effective, centering around just two concepts.
Long trap, which functions like power but with a pulling lineman kicking out instead of climbing to the second level, averaged a whopping 11.1 yards on six carries. This included a 34-yard Rhamondre Stevenson touchdown run.
On these plays, an in-line tight end would chip Crosby or briefly fake a block to slow him down, giving Cole Strange time to come down the line and seal the edge.
The Patriots also had success calling duo, also known as power without a puller, averaging 6.6 yards on eight carries.
These featured Henry and Jonnu Smith executing concentrated double-teams on Crosby, only coming off of these blocks if a second-level defender came to them.
The Patriots’ offense ran for just 2.5 yards/rush against the Saints last week, but most of their negative plays came on outside zone concepts, where they averaged a stunning 0.1 yards. But on gap concepts like duo, power, and counter, which better suit their personnel, that average jumped to 4.5 yards.
More: Gap runs
Less: Pin-pull (at least until Strange gets back)
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) October 9, 2023
If the Patriots lean on their downhill scheme rather than forcing square pegs into round holes with horizontal runs, they might be able to replicate, or at least come close to last year’s ground success.
There are no guaranteed solutions against a player as dominant and sharp as Crosby, but with sound execution and a plan that pays him similar respect, New England will give themselves a fighting chance at getting back on track in Vegas.
