The Patriots (3-10) will host the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs (8-5) in their first meeting since 2020. New England’s had such a disappointing season that this game and Taylor Swift were booted from primetime, but it could be a closer game than most expect.
The Chiefs are favored on the road by more than a touchdown, but they enter Gillette Stadium off back-to-back losses. They’ve won just two of their last six games, including a single victory since their Week 10 bye. Mahomes is still the best in the game, and Travis Kelce remains a game-changer despite some understandable dropoff at age 34. Kansas City’s defense has also been one of football’s most disruptive and mind-boggling. But like the Patriots, their offense suffers from a staggering lack of playmaking pass-catchers. Miscues from wide receivers have directly contributed to the Chiefs’ past two losses, and Mahomes has been visibly frustrated. A surging ground game could also be without Isiah Pacheco for the second game in a row.
These seem like the perfect ingredients for an upset, which New England is no stranger to coming off a road win in Pittsburgh. The Patriots’ defense hasn’t allowed 20 points since Week 9, albeit against some middling offenses. Jabrill Peppers and Jahlani Tavai have been turnover machines, while Christian Barmore, Davon Godchaux, and Anfernee Jennings have enjoyed breakout seasons in the trenches. Kyle Dugger and Mack Wilson have also been making splash plays near the line of scrimmage lately, and Jonathan Jones is playing great defense as he continues to look healthier.
New England’s offense looked better than it had in months early against the Steelers, generating big plays consistently and scoring three touchdowns through the air. However, positive results hid some shaky accuracy from Zappe. This, paired with poor decision-making and shaky line play, brought the group’s positive momentum to a screeching halt later in the game. While Zappe still has plenty to improve, getting Demario Douglas and DeVante Parker back could be a significant boost. JuJu Smith-Schuster is also coming off his best performance as a Patriot and could keep that streak going against another former team.
Team Tank could implode if the Patriots upset the defending champs and start stacking wins. With the team officially out of the playoff race, wins are short-term relief for long-term concerns. But New England has made it clear they won’t go down without a fight, which could be truer than ever, with reports indicating Bill Belichick’s fate with the organization was sealed in Germany.
Make Mahomes’ Receivers Beat You
Few defenses, if any, have challenged Patrick Mahomes as consistently as the Patriots. New England is 2-2 against the Chiefs with #15 under center, holding the quarterback without a touchdown in at least one half of each game. The only game decided by more than one possession was their last meeting in 2020 when Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham combined for four turnovers and a defensive touchdown.
One of the keys to this success has been a heavy dose of man coverage, with Mahomes facing zone on fewer than half of his dropbacks in each career start against New England. This is a strategy Belichick uses consistently against top quarterbacks. Instead of occupying space and getting picked apart by cerebral passers, the defense forces receivers to beat tight, physical coverage and make contested catches.
Throwing off timing and minimizing space will be huge against Travis Kelce, who Jerod Mayo called “one of the best ever” at finding holes in zones. Mayo also highlighted how the tight end’s toughness and savvy make him a challenging cover 1-on-1, which was on full display against the Bills last week.
The Patriots have done a solid job containing Kelce in the past, allowing one 70-yard performance and a single touchdown in their past four meetings. A similarly effective performance should keep this matchup competitive, especially with the Chiefs’ subpar wide receiver group.
Since the Chiefs exited their bye in Week 11, Mahomes ranks 3rd in the NFL with an 87.1 passing grade against man coverage. But according to raw stats, he’s been one of the league’s passers in such situations.
Kelce and Rashee Rice, who’s primarily been an underneath threat, are the only Chiefs receivers with more than three catches, 40 yards, or a touchdown against man since Week 11. The group has also combined for one missed tackle forced over that span.
This sets up an ideal matchup for the Patriots, who are tied with Dallas for the most man coverage snaps since Week 12. It must be acknowledged that New England hasn’t faced a duo like Mahomes and Kelce over that span, and J.C. Jackson is still good for at least one coverage bust a game. That said, the group has been highly competitive and reduced the missed tackles that plagued them mid-season.
In past matchups, Kelce would be shadowed by a corner with size or safety experience like J.C. Jackson, Jason McCourty, or Joejuan Williams. Based on that history, the tight end should spend most of his time against hybrid defensive back Jalen Mills.
For the most part, Mills has been sticky in 1-on-1 coverage, allowing a 76.1 passer rating on 13 targets. But a closer look at the tape reveals issues on scramble plays.
Belichick highlighted Kelce’s chemistry with Mahomes when asked what makes the tight end so dangerous, saying, “A lot of [Kelce’s] plays come on extended plays, loose plays…The play starts, and then something happens, and then he adjusts the route. Or, Patrick scrambles, and then he finds him.”
With Mahomes’ off-schedule playmaking a clear emphasis this week, expect Belichick and the defensive coaches to harp on “plaster” technique, where defenders keep their eyes glued to receivers throughout the play.
Deatrich Wise also highlighted this week how a strong, disciplined pass rush prevents these big plays off scrambles. He told reporters that the team tries to collapse the pocket against mobile passers but prioritizes getting in their vision and keeping movement lateral if they manage to escape.
Christian Barmore’s ability to generate quick wins and collapse the pocket will be key to disrupting KC’s passing game.
He trails only Aaron Donald and Kobie Turner in pass rush win rate among interior defensive linemen with 75 such snaps since Week 12. The Patriots have also shown better timing and execution on blitzes and line games, as we saw on Peppers’ interception last week.
Look for the Patriots to attack right guard Trey Smith, whose 8.5% pressure rate allowed since Week 12 is the 6th-highest at the position. He struggled both 1-on-1 and when facing line games against Buffalo.
If Mills can avoid any crucial errors against Kelce, the cornerbacks keep the wide receivers quiet, and Mahomes doesn’t run wild, it could be another frustrating night for Mahomes and company.
Don’t Sleep on KC’s Run Game
If the Patriots continue their man-heavy approach against the Chiefs, it will put a lot of stress on the defensive front to build a wall against the run with most defenders’ backs turned. They should be up to the task, as New England has been one of the most dominant run defenses of the past decade.
Last week was another dominant performance from the group, pinning Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren between the tackles and minimizing run lanes.
Team tackles for loss-leader Anfernee Jennings had a career game, recording three tackles for loss, while Davon Godchaux and Lawrence Guy served as immovable boulders inside. Well-timed blitzes from Jabrill Peppers and Myles Bryant also created disruption and forced backs to make quick decisions.
The defense will need another strong performance against a Chiefs offense that trails only the 49ers in rush EPA since Week 11. Top rusher Isiah Pacheco missed last week’s game and Wednesday’s practice with a shoulder injury, putting his status this weekend in question. But he can’t be overlooked after being tied for 5th in explosive runs (6) and rushing touchdowns (3) from Weeks 11-13.
Belichick called the second-year back a “really tough runner,” noting his vision and contact balance. Similar to Marshawn Lynch, Pacheco runs with a wide base that makes it especially difficult for tacklers to bring him down. He’s primarily an inside runner who presses gaps to move defenders before quickly redirecting, but he also has the burst and awareness to exploit soft edges of cutback lanes.
Even if Pacheco doesn’t play, the defense must be on point against a physical interior in center Creedy Humphrey, guard Trey Smith, and old friend Joe Thuney. Wise touched on the Chiefs’ size up front when asked about their rushing attack, saying the defense’s goal is to plug gaps, hold double teams, and meet backs at the line. He also mentioned backup running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, calling him and Pacheco “strong and fast runners” who are elusive and difficult to bring down.
While stopping the run might seem like an odd key against a Mahomes-led offense, the only thing more dangerous than an elite quarterback is an elite quarterback with a wide-open playbook. If the Chiefs’ backs get loose, especially while defenders’ backs are turned in man coverage, things could get ugly quickly. But if the Patriots’ stout front continues its impressive hot streak, it will pressure KC’s wideouts to carry the offense.
Contain Chris Jones and the Chiefs’ Aggressive Front
The Patriots’ pass protection put on a show early last week, keeping a disruptive Steelers front remarkably quiet for most of the 1st half. It was the latest in a string of impressive performances from Cole Strange since the bye, who battled injury and inconsistency since returning full-time in Week 7.
This strong start ended when Sidy Sow missed a looping Elandon Roberts for a sack, killing a two-minute drive. Sow and David Andrews lost to a twist on the next possession to end another series. These breakdowns and a Bailey Zappe interception led to minimal passing in the 2nd half.
It was the opposite story for New England’s rushing attack, which struggled against blitzes and line games early before finding a rhythm.
Ezekiel Elliott had to make a defender miss at or behind the line of scrimmage on most carries, which seems to be a trend over the past two games.
Bill O’Brien acknowledged this on Tuesday, telling reporters, “Yeah, some of the [unblocked penetration] did happen a couple of times in the Pittsburgh game, and I think we adjusted to that pretty well as the game went on.” O’Brien also touched on how well the offense has run the ball in recent weeks and likened the Steelers and Chiefs for their blitz-heavy tendencies.
Most Patriots fans are familiar with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who led the 2007 Super Bowl onslaught against Tom Brady. Players and coaches have raved about his scheme’s versatility, variety, and aggressiveness this week. Belichick
Chris Jones headlines the Chiefs’ defense, with Belichick calling the First-team All-Pro a “major problem.”
Jones is the third elite pass rusher New England will face in as many games, and the interior’s toughest assignment in weeks.
Jones can overwhelm linemen 1-on-1 or fitness past them with calculated strikes. He’s a remarkable mover at 330 lbs, giving him the flexibility to play on the edge in certain packages.
Strange and Sow have been pretty reliable on an island, but both have suffered some quick passes hidden by timely throws. Most of the offense’s protections will likely focus on Jones. But Spagnuolo will find ways to get him solo matchups, so the young guards, Andrews and potentially Mike Onwenu, will need to be on their A-game.
Jones is a handful on his own, but Spagnuolo’s unit is one of just three defenses with more unblocked pressures than New England. Cornerback Trent McDuffie, who plays outside in base groupings but kicks to the slot in sub packages, is key to that success. He has at least twice as many pressures (15) and quarterback hits (6) as the closest corner, making him someone who must be accounted for when he’s near the line of scrimmage.
Belichick called McDuffie “a pretty productive blitzer,” saying, “He’s an instinctive guy. He’s quick. He’s been productive for them, disguises, he’s a smart player, and he plays smart in there.”
Zappe has identified and adjusted to slot blitzes well, but Elliott struggled when asked to pick up Derwin James in Week 13. This will be a great opportunity for the back to bounce back.
Of course, a strong run game takes a lot of pressure off pass protection, and Elliott is playing his best football at the right time. The former Cowboy told reporters he’s “excited to play some winter ball in the Northeast,” and he should get plenty of opportunities against a KC run defense ranked last in EPA per play (0.030) and positive EPA rate (44.3%) allowed. The Chiefs have also struggled to create negative plays on the ground, recording the fewest tackles for loss or no gain in the league.
The Bills generated two explosive runs using “trap” concepts, which we saw a lot of from New England last week, where a lineman pulls to kick out an edge defender. The Packers ripped off their own pair of big plays on zone concepts where the back pressed inside before cutting back against an over-aggressive defense.
If New England’s blockers keep their eyes up and pass off KC’s blitzes, Elliott should have some sizable lanes to run through and keep the offense on schedule. Not only would this take pressure off the passing game, but it would also keep Mahomes and Kelce cool on the sideline.
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