Scouting Report: Keys to the Patriots Getting Back on Track vs the Colts

The Patriots have bounced back from a couple of ugly losses this season. They’ll have to do so again when the Colts come to town on Sunday.

Offensively, turnovers and poor execution exacerbated four pre-snap penalties against the Dolphins, including three from entrenched left tackle Vederian Lowe.

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt didn’t hold back when asked about his team’s lack of discipline, which he emphasized during the week when the issue arose in practice.

“That’s horse crap, in my opinion,” Van Pelt said. “One of our main objectives of the game…operation was a huge one, and that’s pre-snap. We talked about not going backward on first and down or second down, and we went backward. We were digging ourselves out of holes, especially in the first quarter. So that’s just an area of just locking in.”

The coordinator also acknowledged Drake Maye’s turnover streak, which has put the defense in tough spots week after week.

“Yeah, the turnovers, they have to stop,” he admitted. “I mean, there’s no excuses there. Rookie, ten-year player, that doesn’t matter. We can’t turn the ball over and expect to win games. So that’s definitely an area of emphasis for us.”

Defensively, miscommunication and poor execution in scoring territory headlined a performance where the defense allowed four touchdowns.

“Yeah, very disappointing, especially in critical moments,” head coach Jerod Mayo said of the breakdowns. “Look, the communication has to be better at the second level and the third level. It was very disappointing, especially in the Red Area. Look, we just have to get better.”

The Colts are no slouches, but they are New England’s last “winnable” game, and the last before their bye week. A strong performance would take some much-needed heat off the team and coaching staff entering their break. A loss will leave a bad taste in their mouth for two weeks ahead of a daunting closing stretch.

Here are the keys for the Patriots getting back on track in their return to Gillette Stadium.

BEAT THE BLITZ

The Colts have been okay getting pressure and awful stopping the run in recent weeks. Still, New England isn’t taking their talented group lightly.

“I would say defensively, this is one of the better fronts, more disruptive fronts that we have faced this year,” Mayo said. “We’ve got to do a good job handling the front. Starts with [DeForest] Buckner, who’s been a guy who’s played at a high level for a very long time. Go to the second level, you have [Zaire] Franklin back there. In the third level, [Kenny] Moore [II] and the rest of those guys. They’re definitely very good players and they have a very good defense.”

Buckner continues to be an elite interior rusher. He’ll be another big challenge for Michael Jordan’s replacement at left guard, Layden Robinson. Van Pelt could keep Bucker quiet(ish) with concentrated double-teams, but that’s not where the challenge ends.

No team rushes six defenders more than the Colts, and Franklin is top-five among linebackers in pressure rate. Coordinator Gus Bradley will also get his defensive backs into the mix.

Drake Maye was excellent against the blitz in his first few starts, carving up the Bears and Rams when they sent second/third-level rushers. But last week, constant self-inflicted errors had the Patriots sweating in Miami.

Between Maye’s missed opportunities, blockers’ missed assignments, and receivers’ wrong routes, the offense barely stood a chance against Anthony Weaver’s pressure packages.

Maye’s strip-sack came on a “simulated pressure,” in which a defense threatens a blitz but only sends four with one unconventional rusher.

When asked about these lapses, Van Pelt explained that they had less to do with the blitz and more with a poorly handled twist.

“The biggest thing, again, our guys have to continue to work on the stunt game and the pick stunts,” Van Pelt told reporters. “That’s the big fad right now. Just running and knocking a tackle off of the defensive end and then running a game with it. We practice it a ton. It’s hard to pick up. You know, we have other tools in our toolbox that, you know, we could use to help those guys, and we will going forward. But that’s probably the biggest thing: the stunts and twists, and all the movement from the D-line.”

If the offense tightens up its execution and protects Robinson, they can control the game. But the group will need help from the defense, which also took a big step back in Miami.

KEEP A LID ON THE DEEP BALL

With several key players missing time throughout the season, coverage breakdowns have been more common than usual for New England. Even so, the level of miscommunication and confusion last week was shocking to watch. Tackling and coverage depth were also areas of concern.

Indy’s static offense should make communication easier this week, but poor fundamentals will doom them against alien quarterback Anthony Richardson.

While he lacks the experience of most quarterbacks who’ve slain the Patriots, Richardson will carve the defense up if they don’t lock in.

“Being able to run the ball, being able to throw it, a cannon for an arm, and can extend plays,” coordinator DeMarcus Covington said of Richardson. “I think you have to…do a good job trapping the quarterback with your rush, making sure you’re accounting for all lanes. Also, a mix of coverage and pressure, and at the same time, you have to do a good job tackling. One guy isn’t going to be enough.”

The sophomore is one of the league’s most dangerous deep throwers, and a quicker release has helped him overcome porous protection. But while Richardson poses a unique challenge for New England’s defense, he isn’t without flaws.

Richardson is still adjusting to the pro game and learning to tame his big arm. He’s prone to wild misses, which, along with inconsistent vision, can lead to interception opportunities. He’s also been strip-sacked in each of the past two weeks.

The defense should have opportunities to make plays against Indy, but first, they must prevent them. As sporadic as Richardson’s accuracy can be, he can make impossible throws. He’s thrown 60-yard bombs on target while being brought down and is surrounded by talent.

“They have good receivers,” Mayo told reporters. “I think it starts with [Michael] Pittman [Jr.]…he does a good job catching balls over the middle of the field. He’s really a fearless guy. They’re dealing with some injuries. We’ll see what happens. We’re going to prepare as if all those guys are healthy. When you talk about [Josh] Downs, you talk about the tackles, all that stuff. We’re going to prepare as if they’re healthy. “

Pittman Jr. is undoubtedly one of the toughest receivers in football, and Downs vs Marcus Jones should be an entertaining battle in the slot. Rookie AD Mitchell also brings juice as an ISO specialist. But for my money, the Colts’ most dangerous receiver is deep ball specialist Alec Pierce.

History would point to Christian Gonzalez staying on the boundary against a team with so many weapons. That isn’t a bad strategy, but no other corner matches Pierce’s blend of size, speed, and ball skills.

Whatever strategy Covington deploys, the defense must get back on track and prevent big plays. That will be crucial against the pass, but Shane Steichen’s offense always starts in the trenches.

CONTAIN THE COLTS’ GROUND GAME

The Patriots’ ground defense has taken a turn in recent weeks, allowing fewer than four yards per carry in two of their past three games. That hadn’t happened since Week 2 against the Seahawks and is partly thanks to improved play from Jahlani Tavai, Keion White, and Jeremiah Pharms.

That said, the unit’s recognition and tackling could be more consistent, and they’ll have to against the Colts’ dynamic backfield.

Jonathan Taylor’s numbers are down due to poor blocking and a high-ankle sprain, but he’s still a big-play threat whenever he touches the rock.

“I would say offensively, [Jonathan] Taylor, he’s a problem,” Mayo said. “We have to try to go out there and really bottle him up. I think one thing about him, he probably doesn’t get the hype that he deserves. At the same time, he’s a very explosive player and a very fast player out there on the field. It all really runs through him.”

The Patriots held Taylor to just 3.0 yards per carry last season in London, but the back has some help this time around.

Richardson can extend plays or take off when necessary as a passer, but that’s not the only place his athleticism shines. Most of his carries have actually come on designed runs, where Richardson’s been the most productive runner at his position since Week 11.

“Yeah, it’s similar to college style when you got a quarterback to be able to create extra gaps,” Covington explained. “And then you have to account for him on every single play because he definitely has the ability to run on every single play.”

This will be New England’s first time facing a quarterback run game this season. The threat of two big, explosive backs on every snap will be a huge test of discipline and communication, as Covington broke down earlier this week.

“You have to be good with your reads,” the coordinator said. “You definitely put that into preparation with the guys and making sure: who’s responsible for what on every single play. Just making sure who’s responsible for the force, who has the quarterback. Who has the dive, who has the pitch, who has this, and who’s the alley player, who’s the run force player, like those different things.”

The Colts aren’t currently built to be a one-dimensional offense. If they can stop the run on early downs and force 3rd & longs, it should be a long day for Indy’s offense.