Scouting Report: Keys to the Patriots Locking Up a Top-3 Pick vs the Jets

It’s been a tough year for Patriots fans. Their 12th loss of the season, suffered last Sunday against the Bills, marked several embarrassing milestones for the franchise, its owner, and its (current) head coach.

Injuries have been an inescapable storyline throughout the season, with several key starters being lost for the season or battling injury for significant stretches.

Breakout campaigns along the defensive front have kept that side of the ball afloat since losing star players Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez. New England ranks 9th in defensive DVOA and is allowing the fewest yards per rush (3.2) since the 2014 Detroit Lions (3.2).

The offense has shown more fight than anyone expected since their upset win in Denver, but they haven’t been nearly as resilient as New England’s defense. Their 14.6 points per game are the fewest in the NFL, and they haven’t had a 100-yard receiver or rusher in any game this season.

Special teams, which the Patriots commit more resources to than any other team, have been similarly dreadful. Chad Ryland’s 62.5% of field goals made is last in the NFL, the team ranks 2nd-lowest in special teams DVOA, and only the Cowboys have been called for more penalties in the game’s third phase.

Outside of blowout losses to the Dallas and the Saints, the Patriots went into every 4th quarter this season with a chance to win. But the defense receiving minimal help from other units turned what many expected to be a playoff contender into a laughing stock. Consequently, Bill Belichick’s seat is hotter than it’s ever been. Reports indicate Robert Kraft is still on the fence over whether to retain his longtime head coach, and Belichick has acknowledged his uncertain future with certain staff members.

Bailey Zappe played coy when asked whether speculation over Belichick’s added extra motivation for the finale, saying the team is “preparing like it’s just any other game.” But it’s tough to take that at face value after Jabrill Peppers’ defense of Belichick in Pittsburgh and David Andrews telling his coach, “We tried to do it for ya tonight,” after their win over the Broncos.

Zappe was more candid when asked about the sense of it being the last game, saying, “Yeah, we’ve continued the same message of playing for each other. We understand that in the NFL, not everybody’s going to be on the team next year. People are going to be in different spots. So, this is going to be the last game that all these guys on the same team are going to be together. So, I think that’s something that’s setting in. And, I think going into Sunday, we’re going to have a kind of energy of ‘we’re going to play for one another and kind of go out there and try to put something together.”

Titans head coach and former Patriot Mike Vrabel offered relevant insight when asked about the importance of losing in the finale of a winning season.

“It [expletive] sucks,” he said of losing Losing. Awful. That’s why I want to win. Because you don’t sleep. You want to win for the players that bust their tail, That’s it. You know what I mean? It’s not about, Hey, we’ll go into the offseason with a good note.”

While Patriots players and coaches have plenty of reasons to compete on Sunday, the reality is a win would almost certainly hurt their draft positioning. With a loss, New England would secure the 3rd or even 2nd overall pick. But a win could drop them from their current spot at #3 overall to #5. This would keep them in range to take a top quarterback, but they might have to sacrifice a later pick to do so. Securing a top-3 pick could also put them in the driver’s seat to add extra capital by trading with a team pining for Marvin Harrison Jr., Joe Alt, or Olu Fashanu.

Unfortunately for Team Tank, the Jets rank last in both EPA per play and positive EPA rate this season, setting up a potential shutout for the Patriots defense. And as inconsistent as New England’s offense has been, they’ve scored at least two touchdowns in four straight games. So, with the team’s hopes of maintaining or advancing their current draft spot bleak and this rematch offering minimal intrigue outside of Belichick’s job security, I decided to have some fun with the last opponent preview of the 2023 season.

Here are my three keys to the Patriots locking up a top-3 pick against the Jets.

Don’t Feed DeMario Douglas

DeMario Douglas is in the midst of a historic season, as his 47 catches and 548 receiving yards are the most for any wide receiver in the Bill Belichick era. With 16 more receiving yards, he’ll surpass Aaron Hernandez for the most of any position over that span. Douglas has also been New England’s most explosive pass catcher this season, leading the team with 14 receptions of at least 15 yards.

When asked about the Liberty product during Monday’s presser, Belichick called him a smart, hard-working, and instinctive player, noting he’s filled multiple roles on offense and spent time as a returner.

As historic as Douglas’ 2023 campaign has been, it could’ve been even better with more consistent quarterback play. He caught just three catches for 31 yards last week in Buffalo, but the tape revealed several big-play opportunities that were left on the field. Douglas dropped a deep target that would’ve nearly doubled his yardage total, but there were several other misses due to missed reads, inaccuracy, and pressure.

With JuJu Smith-Schuster on injured reserve, DeVante Parker limited in practice with a rib injury, and Hunter Henry missing the past two games with a knee injury, it’s a fair bet the rookie will have a big role in the finale. As one of the few bright spots in an offense that’s been tough to watch, Douglas deserves to reach the milestone. But once he does, that’s it. No more touches. The Patriots cannot, under any circumstances, let their best receiver cook.

Douglas caught just one pass for 15 yards when the Patriots faced the Jets in Week 3, his least productive outing of the season. But he was an uncalled pass interference and an underthrown pass away from nearly 100 yards and at least one touchdown, both with slot corner Michael Carter in coverage. A late safety ultimately decided that 15-10 contest and New England’s margin for victory could be even greater this weekend with several key Jets linemen on injured reserve. Like the last game, the weather should also be a significant factor as Sunday’s forecast calls for heavy snowfall (thank you, football gods).

A quiet day from Douglas would admittedly be a downer in what’s already expected to be a low-scoring affair. But it will be worth the sacrafice when the playmaker is catching passes from an electric young quarterback next season.

Test Sauce Gardner

Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas tormented the Patriots last week, directly contributing to three turnovers in less than 20 minutes. His ability to quickly diagnose plays, fire downhill, and attack the football led to three interceptions, setting Buffalo up inside New England’s 20-yard line twice and running the third back for a pick-six.

While Zappe’s decision-making could’ve been better on his first two picks, poorly run routes also played a significant factor.

Despite starting several possessions from and inside their own 30-yard line, New England’s impressive defense responded valiantly, holding the Bills to a touchdown and two field goals in such situations. Buffalo’s only scoring drive exceeding 30 yards came at the beginning of the 2nd half, and they didn’t score another point for the rest of the game. If the three-headed monster of Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and James Cook struggled against New England’s defense, Trevor Siemien and a depleted Jets offensive line are unlikely to fare much better, so New York will need some help from its defense.

The Patriots have committed a giveaway in 13 consecutive games, with their only clean performance this season coming in Week 3. The offense actually lucked out twice, as the Jets’ defense failed to capitalize on a pair of interception opportunities. But Zappe doing the unthinkable and taking chances against Sauce Gardner could be a quick path to a short field for New York.

Gardner has yet to steal a pass this season, but he’s dropped three while being the 2nd-least targeted cornerback with at least 500 coverage snaps. Quarterbacks have been wise to avoid the All-Pro, whose IQ and rare length make any throw to his vicinity a risky proposition. Mac Jones only went after him three times in the Meadowlands, completing curls to Kendrick Bourne and throwing an uncatchable deep ball.

The Jets have been vocal about their desire to snap their 15-game losing streak against New England, so Gardner ringing in the New Year with his first pick and setting up a game-clinching score would be downright poetic (and excellent for the Patriots’ draft positioning).

Minimize Anfernee Jennings’ Snaps

Anfernee Jennings went from an unheralded depth player to a game wrecker on the best run defense since the 2014 Lions. Despite being inactive until Week 3 and serving as a rotational player, only Maxx Crosby (37) has more run stops among edge defenders than Jennings (34). His ascension has been incredible to watch, and he should be one of the first players re-signed this offseason. But to avoid sliding to the 4th or 5th overall pick, it would behoove New England to use their breakout defender as little as possible.

Breece Hall has at least three explosive runs in his past two games, with most hitting outside the tackles where Jennings lives. Given the Jets’ quarterback issues and the likelihood of inclement weather, running the rock should be a top priority.

Jennings was a handful against the Jets’ ground game in his season debut, recording a tackle for loss, a stop, and collapsing the edge against any run that came his way. His performance was a big reason Hall averaged just 1.5 yards on 12 carries.

The Patriots’ run defense wouldn’t be an elite unit with just one great player, so removing Jennings from the equation doesn’t guarantee an improved performance from Hall and his fellow backs.  But considering the edge-setter’s 13 tackles for loss or no gain are more than double the next closest Patriot, it’s a good place to start.