With Election Day in full swing across the United States and the Patriots on their bye week, now’s a perfect time to break out my State of the Team Address.

New England currently sits at 5-4 and, despite being above .500 for the first time in 2022, is in last place in their own division and is on the outside looking into the AFC Playoff Picture.

There’s plenty to evaluate and get into. Through nine weeks we’ve learned a ton about what this team is good at and what they can improve on – so let’s take a look at where they stand at the bye week:

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AFC East Standings

1. Buffalo Bills (6-2)

2. New York Jets (6-3)

3. Miami Dolphins (6-3)

4. New England Patriots (5-4)

As I mentioned above, through week nine the Patriots sit in last place in the AFC East. This is obviously not great as three teams sit ahead of them, but they are only 1.5 games out of first place – so there’s still a glimmer of hope.

Realistically though, I don’t see New England grabbing their bootstraps and winning this division. It’s the Bills’ to lose – and if they do it’ll be to Miami. The Patriots’ (and the Jets’) best chance to make it to the playoffs is as a Wild Card team.

AFC Playoff Picture

1. Buffalo Bills (6-2)

2. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)

3. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

4. Tennessee Titans (5-3)

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5. New York Jets (6-3)

6. Miami Dolphins (6-3)

7. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)

IN THE HUNT

8. New England Patriots (5-4)

9. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)

10. Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1)

This is what the AFC Playoff Picture currently looks like. Notice something? Three out of four AFC East teams currently make up the standings, and the fourth (New England) is the first team in the hunt.

I asked the question on Twitter yesterday – what are the chances that all four teams from the AFC East make the playoffs? It’s slim, but with the postseason expanding to 14 teams, it’s certainly possible.

The Patriots’ best chance to make it to the playoffs is indeed the dreaded Wild Card hunt. So let’s take a look at the teams they will have to play, and beat, the rest of the way:

Remaining Schedule

Week 11: vs. Jets

Week 12: @ Vikings

Week 13: vs. Bills

Week 14: @ Cardinals

Week 15: @ Raiders

Week 16: vs. Bengals

Week 17: vs. Dolphins

Week 18: @ Bills

According to Tankathon.com, the Patriots have the second strongest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL behind only the Packers. With the Vikings, the Bills (2x), the Bengals, and the Dolphins still on the docket – this calculation certainly makes sense.

If New England wants to give themselves a chance at the playoffs and beyond – they’ll need to go 5-3, at a minimum, after the bye. This will require them to compete (and beat) some top teams in the NFL.

It would put New England at 10-7 to finish the season, and in a really solid position to grab one of the three AFC Wild Card spots.

Quarterback “Situation”

The Patriots quarterback room was the talk of the NFL for nearly a month after Mac Jones went down with an ankle injury in week three and rookie Bailey Zappe won two games in his place.

With Zappe at the helm, the offense ran the smoothest it has all season. He threw for nearly 500 passing yards and three touchdowns, completed  76% of his passes, and the team averaged 34 points per game. It was all rainbows and butterflies for New England… until halftime of the Bears game, anyway. Zappe finished his likely final appearance of the season with three turnovers and was embarrassed by the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.

Mac Jones was named the team’s starter the following Tuesday – and since then, today, two weeks later, the Patriots are 2-0 and over .500 for the first time this season.

But Jones has been pedestrian, to say the least, and since his ankle injury in week three, he’s manned the New England offense for 40 drives. Here’s how they’ve ended (h/t Tom Curran, NBC Sports Boston):

• 15 punts
• 11 field goals (shout out Nick Folk)
• 9 three-and-outs
• 5 interceptions
• 5 touchdowns (yay!)
• 2 four-and-outs
• 2 fumbles

It is not entirely Jones’ fault by any means. The offensive line is banged up and the play-calling has been a cluster you-know-what.

This is Mac Jones’ team – he just needs healthy players and better coaching around him to allow him to succeed.

SWOT Analysis

That’s right, as a communications specialist, I’m breaking out the SWOT analysis on the New England Patriots.  Here’s a look at their strengths as a team, their weaknesses as a team, the opportunities that they can take advantage of, and the threats that stand in their way:

Strengths

Defensive line: Manned by veterans Deatrich Wise and Lawrence Guy and complimented by second-year stud Christian Barmore, New England has a dominant front and has found high-quality play on the inside for the first time since the Vince Wilfork days.

Like all, this is predicated on being healthy. Barmore has missed the last several weeks with a knee injury, and the line has not been the same. They’re lucky to have been matched up against the Jets and the Colts since his ailment – otherwise, they could be in more trouble than they are. They should be able to lean on this unit once Barmore gets the “all clear”.

Of course, though technically a linebacker, they also have Matthew Judon who is an elite pass rusher off the edge. He currently sits behind only Micah Parsons and Nick Bosa in Defensive Player of the Year odds according to BetOnline.ag, and in my opinion, is certainly deserving of the award. He is the NFL’s sack leader with 11.5, second in pressures with 44, and fourth in tackles for loss with 10.

Coach Belichick: For richer or for poorer, in sickness and in health, for better or for worse, you shall always trust Bill Belichick.

I’ve been one of Bill’s largest critics this season. Heck, I accused him of coaching malpractice after the Chicago game. However, at the end of the day, he will always be a strength of your team. Though they lost a game they clearly should have won against Chicago, I’d argue that Belichick was the focal point of beating Cleveland and the Jets.

It’ll always be push-pull with him, especially as he ages, but New England shouldn’t want to be coached by anybody else.

Weaknesses

Offensive line: Once considered a strength of their team – the Patriots’ offensive line has been an absolute mess in 2022.

A mixture of a lack of health and poor play up front has completely thrown New England’s offense off course and has sped up quarterback Mac Jones’ internal clock close to a point of no return.

Until David Andrews gets back on the field and rookie Cole Strange starts playing like a first-round pick again, it’ll be hard to blame Mac Jones for the Patriots’ struggles on offense.

Play calling: New England’s offensive coaching staff, comprised of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, has been the subject of an abundance of criticism this season.

Sometimes they look like they’re a new-age, dynamic offense – and other times they look like they’re purposely trying to go three-and-out to let the defense know what they’re doing.

It was extremely noticeable when looking at the difference in the play calling between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. Here’s a look at how differently New England was calling their offense, at least up until week eight, on first and second down between the two quarterbacks (source: Evan Lazar, Patriots.com):

Patriots Offense – First & Second Down

Stat	Mac Jones	Bailey Zappe
Avg. Air Yards	10.4	7.4
Play-Action Rate	11.7%	26.3
Under Center Rate	12.5%	21.1%

It has improved slightly since then, but until they open up the playbook full force and utilize their run game and play-action fully to their advantage, they won’t score points at the same rate as the Buffalo’s or Kansas City’s of the world.

Opportunities

Playmaking ability: While the playcalling leaves much to be desired – if they can somehow fix it, the Patriots have enough playmakers in this offense to be an explosive offense.

Rhamondre Stevenson is shaping into a top-three back in the AFC, Jakobi Meyers is an elite slot receiver who is on the verge of becoming a very rich man, Kendrick Bourne is an A+ WR3, and they have two dynamic tight ends who are chomping at the bit to be schemed up.

Not a great AFC playoff race: Once expected to be the equivalent to baseball’s home run race of 1998, the AFC had a loaded offseason and looked to be a gauntlet to any team looking to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs are the Chiefs and the Bills are the Bills – but the Chargers loaded up, the Bengals were coming off of a Super Bowl appearance, and the Raiders (who already made the playoffs in ’21 with an interim head coach) added the best play caller and the best wide receiver in the NFL.

Despite all of this, the AFC has gravely fallen short of expectations – and could certainly help the Patriots down the stretch.

Threats

Challenging AFC East: Although I just talked about the ease of the AFC playoff race, you have to get through the AFC East first.

The division is a different beast this year. The Bills have arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, the Jets, and their defense is getting better by the day, the Dolphins have finally paired Tua Tagovailoa with an elite play caller, and all four teams are above a .500 winning percentage through nine weeks.

Though it’s a threat, they can turn it into an opportunity with four of their last eight games against AFC East opponents.

Strength of schedule: As I alluded to above, the Patriots have an incredibly challenging road ahead. They have the second toughest remaining schedule behind only the Packers, and they’ll truly need to prove the league wrong if they want to get back to the postseason.

There are some beatable teams, like the Vikings and Bengals, that pump up the strength of schedule numbers, but there’s no question that the road ahead is a tough one.

Conclusion

By no means will it be easy, but this Patriots team can still make some noise in 2022.

They have a bye week at a very opportune time – right in the middle of the season and during a winning streak. You would think, and hope, that they’ll use last year’s post-bye disaster to motivate them into fixing their mistakes and riding their strengths into a successful second half of the 2022 season.

Make sure to follow Mike on Twitter @mikekadlick, and follow @PatriotsCLNS for the latest up-to-date Patriots news!

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