In one of the Thursday Night Football matchups of the century, that was promo’d by Bill Belichick and T.J. Watt in lieu of star quarterbacks, the 2-10 New England Patriots are headed to Pittsburgh to take on the 7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers.
As you know, you can bet the spread, money line, and total every week at FanDuel Sportsbook, but there are also plenty of exotics and props to wager on as well to try and get your money’s worth.
Here are my three favorites for this weekend’s game:
Will there be Overtime?
The Pick: Yes +1480
The pure value in this bet feels too good to pass up. Neither the Patriots nor the Steelers are known for their firepower on offense (12.3 and 16 points per game respectively), and both teams are top-15 in scoring defense.
This is going to be a barn burner. Not an exciting one, but a barn burner. I can see this being a 3-3, 7-7, or even a 0-0 game after 60 minutes of play. It’s going to be tight and it’s going to be ugly, so I like the value at +1480 for this one to be tied after four quarters.
Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards
OVER 56.5 -114
UNDER 56.5 -114
The Pick: OVER 56.5
As for the players themselves, Steelers running back Najee Harris, who leads Pittsburgh in rushing this season with 661 yards and four touchdowns on 159 carries, didn’t practice on Tuesday leaving his status for Thursday night very much up in the air.
What does that mean for the Pittsburgh offense? Well, they’ll have to turn to their No. 2 back in Jaylen Warren, who has actually had similar success to Harris this season. An undrafted free agent out of Oklahoma State in 2022, Warren has rushed for 601 yards and three touchdowns himself this season, and is averaging an average of 5.9 yards per carry vs. Harris’ 4.2.
Long story short, Warren will be fine with Harris out. I like his OVER 56.5 yards in this one.
The Pick: Ezekiel Elliott +230
Another plus-odds wager here, but I love the over two-to-one odds on a Zeke touchdown on Thursday night.
Sure, the Patriots have scored one touchdown in the last month. But how long can that realistically last? (Don’t answer that). With Rhamondre Stevenson all but ruled out for this game with a high ankle sprain, Ezekiel Elliott will be tabbed with the lion’s share of carries for New England’s offense. They’ll likely continue to pull back on their passing attack with Bailey Zappe under center again, which means if they get toward the goal line, Zeke will be the one eating.