What the Celtics Can Learn from NBA Finals and Other Offseason Notes

The Celtics might’ve missed the final opportunity in NBA history to tank.

Less than one year ago, the debate raged within the fanbase and between analysts ahead of a roster tear-down and season where Jayson Tatum mostly would not play. Boston didn’t express an interest in losing, but left its front court bare in terms of NBA experience, mostly left its depth minutes to unproven contributors and positioned itself to move below the luxury tax line. Would a step back set up a better future?

Joe Mazzulla, Jaylen Brown and a group of ascending young contributors screamed no and won 56 games. Others embraced the tank, like Washington, Brooklyn and Utah, injured groups like Memphis and Indiana, and eventually teams that originally hoped for better seasons like Dallas, Chicago, Milwaukee and Sacramento. The influx of losing, load management and even sitting regular rotation players late in games led the league to overhaul the NBA lottery rules through the end of the decade. Now, tanking shouldn’t happen with the bottom-three teams in the standings having a worse shot at the top selections. Missing the playoffs carries little advantage, statistically, over reaching the play-in tournament.

While we can debate how realistically the Celtics could’ve tanked, and how likely they might’ve in the immediate future, all that matters now is how these rules substantively impact the team going forward. And it’s more significant than you’d think. First round picks likely became more valuable than they already became when the league overhauled its financial structure with greater luxury tax penalties and a second apron that limits roster flexibility in the new CBA. That caused Boston’s sell-off last summer, and lottery rules could guide them again.

The Celtics will reportedly weigh a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade this month ahead of the draft and other moves to improve a roster that Brad Stevens all but admitted needed help following its first round exit. Their problem closely resembles last offseason’s in that they have massive salaries, smaller ones and a small allotment of future first-round picks as assets to improve the team. A full mid-level exception helps, and also will hard cap the team at the first apron. Their own first-rounder fell to 27th overall after another successful regular season, and they owe their 2028 pick swap to the Spurs from the Derrick White trade and sent an unprotected 2029 first to Portland in the Jrue Holiday deal. That leaves 2027 unprotected after this draft, swaps in 2030 and 2032, along with picks in 2031 and 2033.

Premium picks from the Brooklyn Nets built this current Celtics era through the Brown and Tatum picks nearly one decade ago. Boston has since used young players and future picks to improve the roster around them, along with significant spending by league standards. Those outlets no longer exist, and while watching a New York Knicks team mostly built through those aggressive outside additions, and a rising Spurs power built through drafting-and-development battle for a championship, the Celtics have a grueling decision to lean into either direction or stand pat with a roster slowly regressing in comparison to the league’s best with each subtraction.

Readers here know my support of an Antetokounmpo deal while acknowledging what it would sacrifice. The Celtics would likely need to sacrifice several of their own draft picks, and an opportunity to acquire them in other deals by swapping Jaylen-for-Giannis. According to Marc Stein, Houston, Portland and Atlanta have some interest in Brown, and that would come with the haul the Bucks currently seek for Antetokounmpo. And it comes in a time where teams who finish with the worst record in the league have the same chance to pick at the top of the draft as play-in teams.

You could look at that multiple ways. The Celtics already have their core players in their primes, while other teams hold tight to potentially more valuable picks, they could lean into still using theirs to go all-in either around Brown and Tatum, or by making the Antetokounmpo splash. Or, given how the Spurs and Thunder built their championship contenders, they could pivot the other way, sell off veterans, draft and develop. It’s hard not to heavy consider that route given the lack of youth and athleticism, speed and burst on display from the Celtics in their loss to the 76ers.

Of course, there’s uncertainty there. We all remember how things looked in 2021 when Boston surrounded Brown and Tatum with young Aaron Nesmith, Payton Pritchard, Grant Williams, Robert Williams III and Romeo Langford. On the other hand, look at how high most of those players ascended to later in their careers. Tatum now wins his minutes with most lineups that surrounded him, the Celtics’ development program improved since then to the point where Hugo González contributed heavily as a 19-year-old rookie, Baylor Scheierman became a defensive stopper when that weakness dropped him to the end of the first round and Jordan Walsh emerged following two redshirt seasons. Ron Harper Jr. grew from training camp invite to occasional impact rotation player. Luka Garza went from the G-League to a legitimate backup big man.

That raises so many questions in my mind. Could the Celtics acquire some of the league’s most promising young players like Amen Thompson or Trey Murphy III before they reach their primes? What could Boston’s development program do with elite young talents given what they pulled off with an unsung cast last year?

Could the path forward be a momentary youth movement? It’s hard not to think so if teams stand prepared to blow the Celtics away for Brown and White, and seeing what San Antonio just pulled off with Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. Of course, the NBA tried to cut that off too, with the most dubious layer added to the new lottery rules: teams can’t pick No. 1 in back-to-back years, or top-five in three consecutive seasons — which also carries through traded picks.

It should become a fascinating offseason to watch how teams, Boston included, manage future first-rounders.

• The Giannis field becomes more interesting with each passing week. Following Chris Haynes’ report before the weekend that the Trail Blazers could emerge as a sneaky suitor, which always felt likely to me given how many future Bucks first-rounders they own, the Thunder lost in the West Finals due in large part to Chet Holmgren’s struggles. Oklahoma City always stood as a sleeping giant destination for Antetokounmpo if they wanted to get involved, given their boat loads of future first-rounders and Holmgren, one of the best talents potentially available for the Bucks to begin building around. It’s still unclear if the Thunder would become more willing to discuss something they previously never would’ve.
• The Cleveland Cavaliers stand in a similar spot following their conference finals loss, albeit a sweep without the injury excuse the the Thunder could carry out of their series. James Harden will reportedly return for another season here, and Evan Mobley’s offensive development continues to ride a roller coaster. Could Cleveland float Mobley and whatever limited draft capital they own to land Antetokounmpo? Previously, a far-fetched scenario where Harden, Antetokounmpo and free agent LeBron James join forces in Cleveland emerged during the regular season. It’s unlikely, but the kind of development that could thwart the Celtics’ chances of landing Antetokounmpo.
• As it stands Boston still needs a third team to emerge as a facilitator in an Antetokounmpo deal. Stein’s Houston, Portland and Atlanta report regarding Brown interest provide some hope that could happen, but as in the case with the Blazers, why wouldn’t any of those teams just attempt to pursue Antetokounmpo themselves? The potential edge for the Celtics: Antetokounmpo determines his future with effectively one year left on his contract. Stein added that Antetokounmpo currently favors Boston and Miami.
• That Miami package would scare me some, along with their potential aggressiveness after two lackluster finishes following Jimmy Butler’s departure. The Heat can offer Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins if he opts-in, along with some combination of prospects Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic and Kel’el Ware. Miami would also need to sacrifice a significant share of its limited arsenal of first-round picks. How Milwaukee would weigh hefty Brown and Herro contracts could swing that comparison.
• I can’t wait for Knicks-Spurs. It’s the most fascinating Finals since 2016: New York returning for the first time since 1999, Wembanyama’s emergence, Luke Kornet following his famous block. This series has it all and should revive some life around the league after several crisis-laden seasons.