What to Watch for in Celtics-Magic Series: Full Breakdown and Preview

The Celtics and Magic begin their first round series on Sunday in the NBA’s most lopsided matchup, according to the odds, even after Miami clinched the eighth seed and a meeting with the Cavs from the east’s 10th spot.

There are significant factors working against the Magic, beyond the challenge of facing a fully-loaded defending champion Boston team, namely Jalen Suggs and Moe Wagner’s absences. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have followed uneven paths back from their injuries earlier this year. The Orlando bench doesn’t provide much scoring behind them for a team that ranked 27th in offensive efficiency.

So how can the Magic compete?

It’ll start with defense…

The most intriguing numbers entering this series are the 48.2 threes per game that the Celtics attempted, the most in the NBA, and the league-low 31.4 that the Magic allowed. That approach translated to the two games where the Celtics had most of their rotation intact against Orlando, a December loss without Jayson Tatum where they shot the fewest threes (33) they had all season, and a January win where they still only managed 37 despite Tatum returning to lead a blowout win. The Magic switch, run teams off the line and rarely help.

Joe Mazzulla sounded ok with shooting fewer threes this week if the Celtics take the best shot available, and both Tatum (8/12 FG) and Jaylen Brown (18/32 FG) found ways to dominate inside the arc. Yet Orlando narrowly won the turnover battle between the two teams, 45-42, albeit influenced heavily by the 17 they forced against Celtics reserves. Still, they’re handsy, unafraid to foul and get into the passing lanes while switching.

While Boston can count on the Magic to miss threes (31.8% 3PT, last), they also have to hope the officials call fouls when Orlando gets too physical. The Magic committed the fifth-most fouls per game (20.1) while the Celtics drew the fewest free throws, another interesting contrast in styles. Orlando’s offense drew the fifth-most free throws, led by Banchero.

 

Tatum talked about preparing for a playoff whistle, but it’s different when you don’t get the call in the moment. Officials ejected Trae Young from the Hawks’ play-in game against the Magic for his reaction to their calls.

While Orlando will try to avoid putting two on the ball or helping, you could see open slips available for Celtics rollers like Luke Kornet in the December game, but the Magic tried to quickly collapse on his post catches. Kornet missed a few shots he should’ve made around the rim while Orlando flashed an impressive ability to pack the paint while recovering to shooting threes. Opponents shot 63% inside against them, the eighth-best mark.

There’s opportunities for Brown and Tatum…

Taking away threes will help the Magic some, but they also need a plan for slowing Brown and Tatum’s inside attack. Tatum shot 6-for-6 in the paint in his only appearance against Orlando. Brown scored 35 points with Tatum out in the December loss.

The Magic might not worry about their scoring if they can force them into difficult twos and turnovers, like they did with Brown in that game. There’s also the lingering question of how healthy, and close to himself, that Brown looks following multiple absences and an injection for his knee injury late in the season. The Celtics finished the season playing one of the league’s slowest paces alongside a Magic team, that ranked last, more than happy to stay in the mud and play a slog of a game. Brown at his best gives Boston efficient transition opportunities.

Tatum’s job will involve maintaining a representative three-point volume for the team by getting off and hitting the tough attempts that others on the roster can’t. He’s come so far with his reads that it’s even possible to imagine him freeing up teammates by the pressure he puts on Orlando’s defense, and the vision he’s developed.

There has long been a debate over whether it’s better to help on Tatum or play him straight-up. Orlando will prove to be one of the few teams willing to commit to the latter even after allowing 30 points to him last game.

The Celtics have remarkable freedom to help against and bring extra pressure Orlando’s offense….

The Celtics forced only 12.8 turnovers per game during the regular season, the fourth-fewest in the NBA, but against the Magic, they turned up the heat and generated 42 — 14 per game. Against Orlando shooters who present little threat, Boston proved more willing to sneak defenders like Jrue Holiday around the back side of of Magic handoffs, setting up double-teams and hedging into driving lanes. It’s uncharacteristic for a Celtics defense that wants to stay disciplined and give up low-percentage shots.

It’s a good test though. Boston looked like it wanted to turn up the heat on Paolo Banchero and a Magic offense that turned the ball over more than 14 times per game, compared to the Celtics’ 11.9 that sat alongside Miami’s 11.7 atop the league. They may see it as a counter to limiting a parade to the free throw line. The Hawks took an aggressive approach guarding him too, which held Banchero to 4-for-13 shooting while dishing nine assists.

It’ll could dictate how the Magic deploy their lineups. They start struggling shooters Banchero, Wagner, Caldwell-Pope, Wendell Carter Jr. alongside Cory Joseph, who’s managed 38.2% from three since becoming a starter in mid-March. He’s a potential defensive target for the Celtics, though, and stronger defenders like Anthony Black (31.8%), Tristan Da Silva (33.5%) and Jonathan Isaac (25.8%) haven’t hit threes this year.

Isaac, maybe the Magic’s best bet at defending Tatum, is a tough play in this series unless Orlando can consistently utilize him in the high post or dunker’s spot. The Magic narrowly won the rebounding battle, 128-125, and offensive rebounding, 31-28. In the last game, when Boston sat starters, Orlando won 49-43 and 12-9.

The Magic have no good answer for Kristaps Porziņģis…

Porziņģis shot 7-for-10 and 3-for-5 from three in the January win after struggling, shooting 2-for-10, though accumulating 14 free throw attempts against smaller Magic defenders who switched onto him through the two matchups. Da Silva drew him most often, allowing 3-for-5 shooting, Porziņģis made all three triples he shot over Carter Jr. and generated four free throws through Black. Orlando doesn’t have a good combination of perimeter prowess and post muscle to handle Porziņģis when the Magic want to switch and take away the three.

His ability to devastate mismatches is the biggest edge either team has in this series, and I can’t imagine any way Orlando counteracts it other than hedging some pick-and-pops to allow Porziņģis to take threes. That would be a massive departure from their normal defense approach, though, so it’s more likely they’re willing to give up a matchup immediately to take away advantageous screening combinations. One way they’ve done so is by putting Carter Jr. on Holiday, and allowing a wing to guard Porziņģis so he can switch onto the ball-handler.

There were times Porziņģis committed offensive fouls, got too caught outside of the paint and most pertinent, slowed down the offensive pace for the Celtics in the half court. If the Magic give him a matchup every time, there’s a scenario where he takes over the offense, makes them isolation-heavy and pulls shots from other players. There’ll be some onus for Boston to speed things up, and a Porziņģis-centric offense doesn’t lean toward pace.

It’ll also increase the need for him to shoot efficiently if he’s a larger part of the game plan. He finished his two games against Orlando shooting 9-for-20 from the field and 3-for-9 from three.

Some players will inevitably struggle…

Derrick White’s struggles in this matchup stood out most, usually a reliable driving threat and secondary scorer, he played more hesitant when the Magic collapsed in the lane and shot 41.7% while playing in crowds, shooting 35.7% from three and turning the ball over six times.

The combination of the Magic taking away threes and defending with length inside limited White to tough floaters, and his screening and slipping abilities will need to come into play alongside Holiday’s to keep both guards involved aside from playing against closeouts.

There’s also some intrigue around the bench in this series. The Magic won the bench scoring battle, 113-60, while Payton Pritchard only attempted nine shots per game, below his season average. That’s despite leading the Celtics’ offense on the rest night in Orlando earlier this month. Like White, the Magic’s collapses prevented him from getting to the paint and switches limited him to 2-for-12 three point shooting. There’s been a debate over whether better competition or fewer opportunities limited Pritchard late in the year, and both factors could come into play here.

The tougher read is Sam Hauser, who dealt with physical limitations earlier in the season and didn’t attempt a field goal in 16 minutes at Orlando in December. He shot 3-of-5 in the next game, splitting four three-point attempts, but could become a more limited contributor in this series due to matchup and physicality reasons. This series leans double-big.

That’ll place importance on Al Horford’s offense in this series. There’s some tape of him struggling to attack closeouts in these games, and he shot 5-for-14 in the regular season matchups, but his increased focus on attacking the paint late in the season and quick release from the corner should set him up for success. There’s a chance the Celtics grow flatter into their double-big lineups into the second unit if Magic defenders play off him.

Prediction: Celtics in 6. Boston will face more resistance and challenges against Orlando’s unique style than many expect, and drop a game at home and on the road before winning two straight through adjustments to slam the door shut on the series.