What to Watch for in New Year from the Celtics

Only one team surpassed the Celtics’ 57-24 record through the 2025 calendar year: the Oklahoma City Thunder.

As teams around the league began wondering whether the Thunder began a 2010s Warriors, or better, run with their championship in June, the Celtics transitioned eras about as smoothly as they could’ve following a devastating second round exit in May. They have less concern about Oklahoma City than the Thunder’s rivals in the west, one emerging as a compelling threat in San Antonio. The Celtics’ main priority remains returning Jayson Tatum to the floor in 2026. But wins in 20-of-29 have raised hopes of a better season than many anticipated.

Regardless of what happens on the floor, however, three things will define the Celtics’ 2026 fortunes: Tatum’s recovery, the franchise’s continued drafting-and-development and the spending commitment from new ownership.

Boston shed over $200 million in salary and luxury tax over the summer with trades that now look wise in retrospect. Kristaps Porziņģis struggled with his POTS condition to begin the season in Atlanta and Jrue Holiday missed the last 20 Trail Blazers game with a calf injury. Offseason departure Al Horford struggled early with Golden State. While Luke Kornet has thrived in San Antonio, Neemias Queta arguably performed better in Boston and missed far less time.

Now just over one month stands between the Celtics and the Feb. 5 trade deadline, where they’ll potentially address team needs and their salary situation. While Boston stands in position to slide below the first apron this offseason, when it’ll matter more and grant them the full mid-level exception. They can keep this roster together and await Tatum’s return as their post-deadline addition, but it will cost them $200 million in salary and $39.5 million in luxury tax as it stands. Brad Stevens said last month he won’t place a ceiling on this group and would be willing to add if it makes sense. Bill Chisholm noted that Boston will go for it in a reasonable way going forward.

The expectation, given the Celtics’ current situation, is that the team could add if it benefits them beyond 2025-26. Even if Tatum returns this year, he’ll need time, perhaps more than would be left in 2026, to return to form.

The more important story from this season will become how many players they can carry forward from it as significant contributors on the next championship contender. Queta emerged as a stable starter through every game so far, and has one year left on his contract. Jordan Walsh’s emergence as a starter, shot-maker and star-stopping defender proved the story of this year so far, and he’s extension-eligible with a non-guarantee for 2026-27. Boston can rip up Queta, Walsh or Josh Minott’s contracts and use their mid-level money to sign any of them to a long-term contract if they decide to.

It’ll still take more time to decide who would be worth doing that for while forgoing the final, minimum contract years they all have before free agency two summers from now. Meanwhile, after seemingly landing one of the steals of the 2025 draft in Hugo González, who has surpassed anyone’s play among the depth wings lately, Boston has an important pair of drafts ahead before they potentially owe the Spurs a pick swap and will send their 2029 first to Portland outright from the Jrue Holiday deal. It’s difficult to imagine the Celtics sending out future firsts given that reality.

So two questions loom large with Jaylen Brown and Derrick White only strengthening their security in Boston while leading a stellar start to the season: would the Celtics utilize Anfernee Simons or Sam Hauser’s contracts to either add to the team or subtract salary? They declined to move either for the latter purpose over the summer, and it’s unclear what market exists for either after they rode ups-and-downs alongside inconsistent opportunities in the first half of the season. If the team doesn’t see a future for Simons here, they may want to explore, again, what they could bring back to Boston before he would likely depart this offseason.

Of course, they could also attempt to keep Simons for less than his $27.7 million current salary. That may prove wishful thinking, especially in tandem with the bench role the team would continue to utilize him if the current roster remains.

Along with their record in 2025, which matched their 2023 mark and only missed 2024 by five games, the presence of Tatum, Brown, Joe Mazzulla and Stevens’ front office will continue to make Boston one of the more stable situations in the league. Their path back to contention status is uncertain, but they’re hardly alone in that.

The hardest parts are complete: finding the two star, building an organizational philosophy and structure, along with a coach who continues to get the best out of the roster. Health, particularly Tatum’s, alongside what happens in the west will play parts in the Celtics’ future that they won’t control. But after a devastating finish to the 2024-25 repeat attempt, one that could continue to hurt for years to come, they’ve put themselves in position to bounce back quickly when Tatum fully recovers from his Achilles tear.

And in terms of dates to look forward to — many welcomes back to Boston returning players from the championship core — no night will surpass the first Tatum game. And the first week or two that follow will send a strong signal about how far this franchise is from raising another banner only 18 months yet seemingly a world away from their last.