What Will Celtics Playoff Rotation Look Like?

Sam Hauser returned from his ankle sprain after missing only two games, and in his second appearance since the injury, picked up the scorching pace his set in Washington the ailment prevented him from breaking records. Hauser shot 10-for-13 in under three quarters that night against the Wizards, and less than one week later with an ankle he admitted to reporters isn’t 100% back to health, knocked down 7-of-8 from three. In a roundabout way, he made history, breaking Jayson Tatum’s Celtics mark for threes across a three game span with 20.

The Celtics beat the Bulls, 124-113, to extend their win streak to nine without Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. They improved to 11-2 in the second half of back-to-backs, an achievement given the near automatic absence of Al Horford or Porzingis in those games all year. Hauser started and scored 23 points, Luke Kornet added eight, with four assists and matched a career high with 13 rebounds, while Boston won Payton Pritchard’s minutes off the bench by 17. Another stellar showing by the second unit raises the question of how involved they could become when the postseason begins in less than one month.

“I don’t really consider (the end of the year) an experiment,” Joe Mazzulla said last week. “It’s like hey, these are opportunities we need to be in in case we need them for whatever reason. Finding those different ways, but I think the thing these guys do, regardless of who’s in, they’re quickly understanding, on both ends of the floor, what’re the matchups? What’re the coverages? What’re we in? What’re we attacking? They do a great job of getting organized as far as that. So each guy is learning how to play with different lineups and it’s allowing us to go down the path of different things that we need to have ready for different situations. So I think we’re grateful of that and the guys do a great job of adapting to that.”

Boston’s top-six players will handle the bulk of their postseason minutes, but depending on the opponent, they’ll need a seventh man to emerge and could sprinkle in an eighth player to help spell some of the starters. Last year, Tatum averaged 40.0 minutes per game, Jaylen Brown closely matched him with 37.6, Marcus Smart logged 34.0 as the starting point guard, Horford filled 30.9 starting at center and Derrick White started 16 of the 20 games while averaging 29.7 MPG. Pritchard, Hauser and Kornet mostly did not play in favor of since-departed Malcolm Brogdon (24.9), Robert Williams III (20.9) and Grant Williams (17.7).

Mazzulla hesitated to use his bench last postseason in a way that some around the team projected to continue this spring given the versatility of the starters and the lack of playoff experience off the bench. That could change considering some of the second unit play late in the year, particularly Pritchard’s, but it’s a solid bet that Tatum and Brown will both average close to 40 MPG again, save for blowouts. Against the Bucks last Wednesday, Tatum, Horford, White and Brown all played 37 minutes, limiting Porzingis to 28 while Pritchard bumped up to 31 in a red-hot performance. Pritchard is averaging 11.5 points and 4.8 assists (1.0 TOV) in expanded opportunity this month (26.9 MPG), shooting 46.2% from the field and 42.1% from three over his last 11 games, starting three.

“Against the switching (Pritchard) did a good job against rejects, getting under the basket, probing, creating two-on-ones and finding those lobs,” Mazzulla said last Sunday after the Wizards game. “I think Payton, really for most of our season, has been underrated. The growth that he’s had as a player, his ability to play with the ball, his ability to play without the ball, and he’s finding ways without scoring to highly impact the game, whether it’s with assists or with his defense or rebounding. This stretch where we’ve had some guys out, the Sams, the Paytons, the Lukes, the Oshaes (Brissett), Svi (Myhailiuk), X(avier Tillman), all the guys have done a good job separating themselves and diving into roles that we’re going to need them to play.”

An uptick in Porzingis and Horford minutes will mark the biggest difference in the Celtics’ playoff rotation compared to the regular season. Porzingis averaged 29.5 in the regular season and Horford scaled back to 27.0. In a game where Tatum logs 41, Brown and White go for 37, while Porzingis and Holiday ramp up to 35, that would leave 55 minutes for everyone else, most of which Horford could eat up with 32 if Boston only plays two bigs. Either Hauser or Pritchard, or both, would share the remaining 23. That’s how the Celtics played the Nuggets last month, except Xavier Tillman cut into 13 of Horford’s minutes to provide spot defense on Nikola Jokić.

 

Tillman continued trying to play the four next to Porzingis and Kornet on Saturday, and while his combination with a shooter in Horford showed some promise through 38 minutes (+10.6), he fell to 3-for-15 (20%) from three with the Celtics, who have mostly used him in a corner spacing and crashing role while playing the four on offense. Opponents have also shot 55.4% against him and with only 11 games until the playoffs, it’s looking more likely he’ll play an emergency and spot defensive role in the playoffs.

Kornet could also see his minutes largely erased, but given his 9.7 PPG and 5.9 RPG with 1.3 BPG on 65% FG over his last nine, he could earn one first half rotation behind some Horford-Porzingis double big minutes (+12.9). If not, Horford will have to play far more time at center than he has in recent weeks, eating one or both of Kornet’s 10-minute rotation. Tatum could also eat into a second half Hauser rotation.

The general one below is based on how the Celtics handled Denver last month.

If someone misses time, Pritchard, Hauser and either Kornet or Tillman would emerge as a regular rotation player at their respective positions. At full health, the Celtics might only need one to show up on any given night. Something they’ve done all year.

“Second night of a back-to-back, guys out, the role guys in particular, credit to them,” Mazzulla said. “All their minutes had to step up. A couple of those physical presence plays kept us in it. I thought Oshae was great tonight as well in that department … it’s funny, I yelled Jaden (Springer)’s name, he was shocked he went in at four seconds, but we’d given up four points in four seconds against Denver and against Detroit. Those four seconds matter, so every time someone goes into the game, they know their minutes matter and they play the role that they need to do to give us the best chance to win.”