Joe Biden may be the betting favorite as well as leading in the polls, but he’s seemingly doing so by default. Will that be enough to hold of an incumbent Donald Trump in November? Will that be enough to keep Biden on the ticket?
His betting odds that he’ll be the Democratic nominee have been nearly cut in half (-1500 two weeks ago to -800 today according to BetOnline.ag.)
His patriotic message of staying-at-home, and doing as I say and do, may not appear to be working. He’s going days and sometimes weeks at a time without speaking. He boasts a campaign staff that’s not even half the size of what Hillary Clinton’s was in 2016. His virtual campaign event last week was riddled with so badly riddled with glitches that it was buried by the news media.
Donald Trump is everywhere and anywhere and while the publicity is bad, any publicity is good publicity in the age-old PR mantra. He is flat out drowning out his opponent. Will an electorate even remember he exists come November?
Here’s something that catches the eye: BetOnline.ag has Donald Trump as a +160 underdog against ‘the field’ to win re-election in November. However, ‘the field’ as we know in American politics the last 100 years is the opposition party nominee and no more. So why would Biden be a +130 underdog, yet ‘the field’ itself is the current betting favorite?
It begs a lot of questions. In a feature in the New York Times this morning, Democratic insiders have raised that:
Mr. Biden’s inability to influence the political or policy debate about the coronavirus and the nation’s economic collapse has worried some Democratic allies, donors and former Obama administration officials who want Mr. Biden to be more visible. He rarely goes on offense against Mr. Trump in ways that have lasting impact. And his tentative handling of his biggest test recently — responding to the sexual assault allegation by Tara Reade — prompted skepticism among some progressives and others about his instincts and his team’s agility.
Mr. Trump has his own enormous problems politically, and he and his campaign have yet to get a handle on Mr. Biden, veering from attacks over China to personal jabs at his mental acuity and his son Hunter. Still, even some Democrats who are optimistic about Mr. Biden’s chances say they are worried about whether he and his operation are ready for the campaign of personal destruction that Mr. Trump is expected to accelerate.
Once again, it all draws back to: Will the Democrats call a late audible at the line of scrimmage and swap Biden out? And who will they replace them with?
More importantly, would Biden be a safe bet in November? Both as a Democrat interested in Trump’s removal, and as a bettor oneself.
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