Where Will Celtics Finish in the East This Season?

The Celtics received a 43.5 win total over-under from most sports books this summer, placing them in a tie for seventh in the east with the Philadelphia 76ers. While almost any preseason power ranking would project Boston first one year ago coming off their championship and retaining most of that roster, the Celtics lost Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porziņģis and more alongside Jayson Tatum to an achilles tear. It’s difficult to project who will rise from Boston’s inevitable fall from the top. The Cavs already topped the Celtics by 3.0 games last year. Cleveland and New York, after beating Boston in six games in the second round, will run back their rosters.

They’ll likely lead the conference standings barring injuries or an unexpected rise from other contenders like the Magic, Hawks and Pistons, who all added multiple reinforcements this offseason. That’s already five teams that could feasibly finish ahead of the Celtics in the race for six seeds that guarantee a postseason appearance. The final four postseason slots send you to the play-in, and a small difference could separate teams in the middle of the conference. Last year, 3.0 games separated the 3-5 seeds and 5.0 games removed the eight seed from the sixth.

Some combination of the Pistons, Hawks, Bucks, Celtics, Pacers, 76ers, Heat, Raptors and Bulls should fill seeds 4-12 with little separating them on paper. Boston and Indiana, who led this group last year, lost their best players for the season. The Bucks lost significant talent too, but retained Giannis Antetokounmpo by adding Myles Turner from the Pacers. The Pistons took a leap, then lost Malik Beasley, who helped key their turnaround. The Hawks have only finished more than four games over .500 twice in the last 10 years. The Bulls and Raptors stabilized late last season while the Heat and Sixers have the chance for fresh starts after turbulence in 2025. It feels fair to count the Hornets, Wizards and Nets out.

Let’s rank these teams by total win shares their players accumulated from last season, removing Tatum and others who won’t play. That approach also removes rookies from the conversation, though none of nine teams above except for maybe Philadelphia should rely significantly on rookies:

• Boston: 39.4
• Indiana: 32.2
• Detroit: 42.4
• Milwaukee: 31.5
• Miami: 43.1
• Sixers: 21.9
• Hawks: 39.8
• Raptors: 30.4
• Bulls: 38.1

If those teams finished 4-12, that would place the Celtics seventh, like their over-under did, though injuries, adapting to new roles, individual improvement and regression, along with mid-season moves that could shift the small margin for error between these teams.

Here’s how I see these teams currently stacking up after some thought. This is assuming the fullest possible health, an average result for rookies and similar productivity year-over-year.

1. New York 

2. Cleveland 

3. Magic: They actually have to turnaround what’s been a bottom-10 offense since 2011-12. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner’s returns from injury didn’t change that misfortune drastically. Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs’ return, Tyus Jones, rookie Jase Richardson and other internal improvement should help. Moe Wagner will likely return from ACL surgery later in the season. Their tinkering shouldn’t alter a defense that rivaled the Thunder for best in the NBA. Only Cole Anthony and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope went out in the Bane trade, who both struggled last season.

4. Hawks: Optimistic about them even if they’ve struggled defensively throughout the Trae Young era. If Onyeka Okongwu continues his strides from late last season, he’ll round out a long lineup of wings surrounding Young. Jalen Johnson should assert more control offensively should Young continue to embrace off-ball play. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard should amount to what De’Andre Hunter, Terance Mann, Bogdan Bogdanović and Caris LeVert gave them last year, more or less. Kristaps Porziņģis is the swing player here, since he’ll need to be available often for their center depth to hold up. Remember: they had an impressive start last season and beat Boston twice on the road before Johnson went down for the season. Dyson Daniels is an earth-shattering defender. Asa Newell is an intriguing wing prospect. Mo Gueye played solid center minutes late last year.

5. Pistons: Give the edge to the Hawks over them due to the uncertainty of Malik Beasley no longer playing here. Cade Cunningham is their best player, so their season should reflect last year’s for the most part. It’s harder to measure the edge Beasley gave them as their most demonstrative leader. They brought in a good cast of characters to replace him, including LeVert, Duncan Robinson and rookie Chaz Lanier. Jaden Ivey is back, and even though he and Cunningham shared an uneven fit in the back court together before the team took off following Ivey’s season-ending injury, Ivey has a chance to at least provide what Dennis Schröder did. Between Cunningham, Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland, my bet is on internal improvement outweighing their losses. Isaiah Stewart and Tobias Harris are veteran rocks. I love JB Bickerstaff. One of them or the Hawks can make the east finals.

6. Heat: Should give a team with their roster intact and arguably the best coach in the league the benefit of the doubt with the Jimmy Butler drama in the past. They know what they have to begin this season, and added Norman Powell to a team that struggled immensely to put the ball in the basket. They have Powell, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Kel’el Ware and their cast of young players healthy to start the year. Pelle Larsson, Nikola Jović, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Davion Mitchell have all played spurts of good basketball. Simone Fontecchio replaces Robinson and Kasparas Jakučionis profiles as the next Heat draft steal. They’ll be back to playing better than expected this year.

7. Bucks: This feels like the best bet for the final guaranteed playoff spot. Between Giannis Antetokounmpo’s importance and the increasingly suspect roster, there’s a low floor this team could reach that could place Antetokounmpo’s future in question as soon as this winter. No team has a greater injury risk. If Antetokounmpo goes down, they’re done. Turner effectively replaces Brook Lopez, but not Damian Lillard, who he’s also replacing financially. Kevin Porter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr. will try to fill in at guard alongside Cole Anthony, AJ Green, Andre Jackson Jr. and Ryan Rollins. They don’t have great point of attack defenders anywhere on the perimeter, even including Taurean Prince and Bobby Portis at forward. Antetokounmpo will have to do some all-time heavy lifting every night to get them to this seed. He’s capable.

8. Pacers: They have a remarkably similar ceiling to the Celtics. The difference is we’ve watched Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam step into larger roles for extended stretches here and succeed. Boston has a better 1-3 rotation with both teams missing their stars this year, while Indiana acquired the best center between the two teams in Jay Huff. The Pacers also have some strong secondary scoring between Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Ben Sheppard and Obi Toppin with some intriguing depth prospects like Jarace Walker and Johnny Furphy behind them. We’ve also seen Rick Carlisle do a lot with a little.

9. Celtics: Like the Bucks, there’s a play-in territory ceiling and low floor below this area if Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard don’t hold up. All three step up into significantly larger roles than they have in the past. This is the first time since 2017-18 that we’ll see Boston, and all the success we’ve come to expect from them, without Tatum. They’re going to miss him in almost every area, particularly with their front court flexibility gone. They can run-and-gun to a decent season. Brown is capable of a leap. Their center group has next to no experience playing a full season in a NBA rotation. That’s a problem they’ll have to solve to dream of rising any higher than this. One significant injury could sink this group quickly.

10. 76ers: Their ceiling is rising past this area to borderline contender in the east. It’s impossible to bank on that before we see Joel Embiid and Paul George look like themselves again. I’ve underrated how disruptive their in-and-out availability is to a coaching staff and teammates around them knowing what role they’ll play. They had a legitimately awful season despite intriguing young players like Tyrese Maxey, Justin Edwards, Adem Bona, Quentin Grimes and Jared McCain emerging. VJ Edgecombe and Johni Broome add to that youth movement and both look like they could thrive. That should keep them in the playoff mix even if Embiid and George don’t show up every night. It’s hard to imagine them rising much higher without them. The Bulls stand at the ready if the Bucks, Pacers, Celtics or Sixers sink. The Raptors have a less compelling case to sneak in.