Why the Patriots Should Win 10+ Games

I whipped up a bit of stir in the Patriots media bubble last week.

Although I was confident New England could win 10 games before pre-schedule release, I wouldn’t have been stunned by nine. But following the announcement, I saw as many as 13 winnable matchups.

The idea of 13 wins for a rebuilding team didn’t feel realistic, and I laid out my usual caveats during our Patriots Daily live stream. Still, it was wild to see on my co-host Mike Kadlick’s timeline, and I was understandably ripped for the hot take.

I can’t stress enough that predictions in May mean as much as predictions in August: absolutely nothing. But I stand by my thought that, based on what we know, the Patriots winning nine or fewer games would be a disappointment.

To exceed expectations, teams need talent in key roles, and of course, a little bit of luck. New England still lacks an elite receiver and edge defender, but they check enough boxes to expect big change in 2025.

Here’s why I believe the Patriots will put together their best season since 2021.

AN EASY SCHEDULE

The Patriots will face three of the league’s best quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and MVP Josh Allen (x2). However, outside of those juggernauts, New England’s schedule is full of unproven teams. And while strength of schedule numbers can be deceiving, the Patriots having the third-easiest lineup sounds about right.

Only four of the Patriots’ opponents made last year’s playoffs. New England won’t face a contender until going to Buffalo in Week 5, and won’t again until visiting Tampa Bay in Week 10.

Non-playoff teams like the Raiders, Panthers, and Falcons could certainly surprise, but the Patriots are favored in 11 games.

It’s hard to fault Vegas for favoring Miami in Week 3. The Dolphins have dominated these matchups at home since 2019, and Tua Tagovailoa is still undefeated against New England. But a September trip could also mean a less jarring climate change, and the Patriots not beating themselves for a change should be the difference-maker.

While New England winning every game in which they’re favored might be a reach, so is the team losing to all of their good opponents. Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins have battled injury over the years, and the Buccaneers are tested but beatable. The Patriots have also played the Bills tight the past two seasons, and they’ll be coming off a bye in Week 15 while Buffalo will have just faced the Bengals.

There won’t be many excuses for New England in 2025, and if Drake Maye  takes the second-year jump most expect, they won’t need any.

A POTENTIAL JUMP FROM DRAKE

Maye is still a relative unknown, but the blue-chip talent showed franchise quarterback potential as a rookie.

After five weeks of ineptitude, New England ranked 16th in dropback success rate once Maye took the reins. They were even better from Week 10 on, climbing to 10th.

Maye raised the offense’s subterranean floor with his rare talent, impressive poise, and advanced IQ. After being named a starter, he led the NFL in scramble yards and ranked top 10 in adjusted completion rate under pressure.

Maye still lacks a top-tier arsenal, but he won’t have to carry the offense like he did in year one.

Gritty veterans Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins should stabilize the pass game alongside veterans Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, and Austin Hooper. Diggs was producing at a high level before suffering his knee injury, and Hollins was a starter for the Bills last season. DeMario Douglas, Kyle Williams, and TreVeyon Henderson are also a versatile young trio with upside.

Maye has to cut down on the turnovers and unnecessary sacks, but the team’s new leadership should go a long way in improving those areas.

THE MIKE VRABEL EFFECT

After being an underdog in every 2024 matchup, the Patriots are favored in a whopping 11 games this season. That, ladies and gentlemen, is the Vrabel effect.

The head coach touched on three team goals during his introductory presser; taking advantage of bad football, minimizing mistakes, and focusing on the little things. These aren’t novel concepts, but Vrabel’s proven he can both execute and coach them at a high-level.

As a player, Vrabel won three Super Bowls as a co-founder of  “The Patriot Way”. He was a hallmark of versatility, playing every linebacker spot and catching 12 touchdowns after starting his career on special teams.

As a coach, Tennessee made the playoffs in three of his six seasons at the helm. He was also named Coach of the Year in 2021 after leading a 12-5 campaign with a record 91 players on injured reserve. His Titans were known for dragging teams into the mud and punching above their weight, notably ending Tom Brady’s Patriots career with a home loss in Vrabel’s first playoff appearance.

Part of this success stems from Vrabel’s uniquely hands-on approach, which has made an impression on players early in his Patriots tenure.

“I love that, because it shows you how much he cares about the rookies and their development. Everybody, not just the drafted guys,” said rookie center Jared Wilson. “And he’s hands-on with everything. It’s great to see him out there actually running around with us.”

Former Patriot and Titan Logan Ryan told the Herald he was  “blown away” by Vravel’s intelligence, noting the strategic advantage the coach provides in critical moments.

“Yeah, he beat Bill at his own game with the punt rule. He used it against Bill to ice a game,” Ryan recalled from the 2020 AFC Wild Card matchup. “And he beat a lot of coaches at the game like that. Stuff you guys didn’t see while I was there… He gives you a true advantage on the sideline.”

Philosophical differences, poor offense, and personnel hits led to the Titans moving on after 2023, but that’s looking like a blessing in disguise for Vrabel and his new team. The head coach is finally empowered, not inhibited, by his quarterback, and the Patriots’ roster filled major holes in free agency before unanimously acing the draft.

Outside of Tennessee’s roster, the biggest question mark surrounding Vrabel was his taste in offensive coordinators, which soured on Titans fans late in his tenure. Fortunately for the Patriots, that spot appears to be filled for the foreseeable future—and possibly forever?

JOSH McDANIELS’ RETURN

McDaniels is an elite coordinator/play-caller who can mentor any offensive position, and if he goes the Steve Spanguolo route, Maye could have the same coordinator for his entire career.

McDaniels has had more success away from Brady than he gets credit for. The six-time Super Bowl champion helped rookie Mac Jones earn a Pro Bowl nod, thrived with an inexperienced Matt Cassel (albeit on a stacked offense), and produced a fascinating option run game with the husk of Cam Newton. McDaniels also orchestrated Davante Adams’ second-more productive season.

All that said, there are real concerns surrounding the Patriots’ offensive line. Many were shocked to see career backup Wes Schweitzer as the top left guard in team photos, Will Campbell and Garrett Bradbury might struggle on islands against elite rushers, and Morgan Moses is a quality pass protector and people-mover, but the 34-year-old may struggle to stay on the field.

This could be a rocky recipe for a green coordinator, but no one has proven more adaptable than McDaniels. The guru works with multiple positions, excels at covering blemishes, and consistently puts players in positions to succeed. And between McDaniels, Vrabel, line coach Doug Marrone, and his assistant coaches, there will be several options for players to get extra attention.

McDaniels may be a miracle worker, but his offense isn’t putting up 30 a game anytime soon. Still, if Terrell Williams lives up to his reputation, they won’t have to.

ELITE PASS RUSH POTENTIAL

Vrabel has stressed the importance of protecting the quarterback, but he’s been just as adamant about affecting opposing passers.

That must’ve been music to the ears of Christian Barmore and Keion White, who’ve carried the pass rush with minimal help since Matt Judon’s last snap in New England. They’ve proven to be elite interior rushers with the potential for more, but outside factors have slowed their growth.

The first step in shoring up the Patriots’ front was adding defensive coordinator Terrell Williams. One of the league’s premier defensive line coaches, Williams led Tennessee’s trenches throughout Vrabel’s time as head coach. He’s mentored several All-Pros and Pro Bowlers, including Jeffery Simmons, Cameron Wake, and, briefly, Aidan Hutchinson.

Williams served as the Lions’ run game coordinator/defensive line coach last season, earning high praise from head coach Dan Campbell. Williams led a top-ranked front despite significant personnel losses, including Hutchinson, who also had great things to say about his position coach.

New England’s front office gave Williams plenty to work with this offseason, headlining their free agent class with reigning Super Bowl champion Milton Williams. The defensive tackle broke out as a pass rusher, but he was known as a top-notch run-stopper before 2024.

Fellow signing Harold Landry’s best days are likely behind him, but he’s a great run defender and opportunistic rusher. Edge K’Lavon Chaisson also finished his Raiders career on a high note before signing with New England.

The rookie class could feature as many as three defensive line steals. The highest upside addition might be LSU’s Bradyn Swinson, who projects as a day-one situational rusher.

Florida State’s Joshua Farmer is a fierce run defender with every-down upside, and Cal Poly’s Elijah Ponder is a potential undrafted gem off the edge.

For the first time in years, the Patriots can send waves of capable pass rushers. That depth, paired with mentorship from Vrabel, Williams, and longtime assistant Clint McMillan, should produce  a top-tier unit capable of anchoring the defense.

MORE PLAYMAKERS ON DEFENSE

Disruptive fronts create turnover opportunities. That should mean another All-Pro for Christian Gonzalez, but he’s not the only playmakers on the backend.

Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Christian Elliss, and Jahlani Tavai have flashed possession-stealing instincts, but they’ve been slowed by injury and inconsistency. While this left Gonzalez as the defense’s only difference-maker, offseason additions should raise the unit’s floor and ceiling.

New faces Robert Spillane and Carlton Davis deflected a lot of passes last season, and both projects as an impactful starters.

Rookie Craig Woodson proved to be a versatile leader in Cal’s secondary, and he could at least see significant snaps as a rookie.

Marcus Jones is a quality starter in the slot, though he’s struggled against top -end receivers. Most of the team’s veteran safeties are also coming off injury, but the back end lacks glaring weak spots. Jack Gibbens also told Patriots.com the linebackers are ahead of schedule, which is a far cry from last year’s group.

WRAP UP

Like any rebuilding team, New England will take time to gel, but this ain’t your kid nephew’s Patriots.

Look no further than the Commanders, who improved by eight games after adding proven difference-makers ahead of 2024. A stale offensive scheme and trench woes grounded last year’s Texans’, but their 2023 success followed a similar blueprint. In both of these meteoric rises, fortunes quickly changed when quality players met equipped leadership.

Most teams with a soft schedule and that makeup are penciled in for the playoffs. Why not the Patriots?