Five Advantages for Celtics and Cavaliers Entering Round 2 Playoff Series

The Celtics and Cavaliers begin their first round series tonight with little fanfare given their recent lack of playoff history and Boston entering as significant favorites. Cleveland played Game 7 only two days ago, while the Celtics sent the Heat home nearly one week ago. Rest vs. rust, health and offense vs. defense will all become major factors in this series, and despite the obvious difference in talent across the rosters, both teams boast advantages.

For the Celtics…

1. Offense, by far: The Celtics finished first in offense and averaged 7.5 points per 100 possessions more than the Cavaliers during the regular season. Boston shot better (57.8 EFG%-55.7), turned the ball over less frequently (12.1-13.8 TOV%) and still managed 117.7 points per 100 against a tough Miami defense in round one. Cleveland completely stalled with 100.0 points per 100 versus a Magic defense that compared similarly to the Celtics’ during the regular season. Derrick White (22.4 PPG), Boston’s third option, went off in round one. Cleveland’s stumbled when Evan Mobley only managed 12.1 PPG. The Cavs hit 60 threes in seven games during round one. The Celtics converted 75 in five.

2. Health: Both team’s actual third options, Kristaps Porzingis (calf) and Jarrett Allen (ribs), begin the first round injured. Allen posted 17.0 PPG and 13.8 RPG before going down after Game 4 against Orlando. Porzingis was scoring only 12.3 PPG on 38.9% shooting, and the Celtics’ offense thrived in Game 5 without him. Allen moved gingerly and sat along the baseline during the open portion of shootaround on Tuesday. He’s questionable. Big wing Dean Wade, who devastated Boston during their last matchup, is out again with a knee injury after missing the entire first round. He did some light running on Tuesday morning. Porzingis is more likely than not to miss the whole series. He’ll be evaluated later this week. Donovan Mitchell was healthy enough to play, but did not fare well shooting in round one (25% 3PT). Cleveland does not currently appear healthy enough to compete. That could change.

3. Defense … if they lock in: The aforementioned turnover rate could become a big deal in this series if Boston flexes a more aggressive defensive effort as they did in Game 3 at Miami. Having the big wings to start on Cleveland’s guards that run the offense while switching or hedging Jrue Holiday and Derrick White off the Cavs’ wings and bigs could weaponize Boston’s defense in a way that makes this series uncompetitive. For all of Cleveland’s defense reputation, the Celtics defended better during the regular season by nearly two points per 100. That gap increased to 4.2 in the first round, albeit with the Heat devastated. This is a small advantage for Boston.

4. Depth: Sam Hauser shot 7-for-10 from three during the regular season against the Cavs. Payton Pritchard played well in spurts during round one despite a poor final shooting line. Luke Kornet should be able to comfortably drop on defense against the team that took the fewest share of mid-rangers out of their total shots during the regular season. With Allen and Wade out, Marcus Morris started a game for Cleveland last round, Isaac Okoro replaced him for Game 7 and Tristan Thompson steps in for depth big minutes. Caris LeVert is dangerous and willing to take those in-between shots, scoring 26 points in their second meetings. He only produced 14.0 PPG on 42.1% shooting in round one.

5. Clutch: Boston finished 21-12 during clutch finishes during the regular season. The Cavs went 20-22 with a -5.3 net rating despite Mitchell’s reputation in that spot. The Celtics went 12-11 and Cleveland 13-11 in the final minute of one possession games, a closer comparison, while the Cavs took 9-of-15 endings that went down to the final 10 seconds within two points. Boston lost 9-of-15 in those spots. Cleveland has to get there. This one’s the closest.

For the Cavaliers…

1. Size: Isaac Okoro, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen becomes an imposing front court if the Cavs get healthy. This advantage diminishes, though, if Allen can’t play, moving Mobley to the center spot where he’s less experienced and comfortable. Wade, Cleveland’s biggest defensive wing, is out for Game 1. Worse, the Cavs ranked 22nd in offensive rebounding while Boston finished 14th. Allen and Mobley lineups only outscored opponents by 0.9 points per 100 possessions. By comparison, Al Horford and Kornet posted a +5.6 net rating. Will Boston play to its small ball strengths or try to matchup against double-big?

2. Sharpness: Joe Mazzulla conceded that a week off can be a bad thing while another team comes off the heightened intensity and awareness of a Game 7.

“It doesn’t really matter what the situation is,” Mazzulla said. “What matters is making sure we’re ready to play … they’re gonna be just as ready to play. I think the advantage is in the mental toughness, the physical toughness. To hone in on the details and be disciplined in those … that’s where the advantage lies.”

3. Donovan Mitchell: Managed 28.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 4.4 APG through whatever level of injury he’s dealing with. His efficiency dipped to 45.9% FG and 25.0% 3PT, struggling immensely to shoot off the bounce. He also managed a 50-point Game 6 and averaged 30.0 PPG across the two-game mini series in December at Boston. The Cavs won without him in March at home and the Celtics will try to make him work on defense, but he held Boston’s players to 40% shooting when they attacked him. On any given night, he can rise to become the best player in the series. That’s an advantage the Cavs have that the Heat lost with Jimmy Butler out. Darius Garland (40% 3PT in round one) isn’t too bad of an option either. Where will their help come from?

4. Free throws: An edge, but only a major one if the Celtics miss theirs. Cleveland averaged 20.4 per game to Boston’s 20.2 during the regular season. A similar margin emerged through round one (20.9-20.4), only the Celtics slid to 75.7% efficiency there in large part due to Jaylen Brown’s struggles (45.0%). The Cavs only hit 76% themselves with Mobley, Garland, Allen and LeVert all botching trips to the line in different moments. With three-point shooting margins surprisingly close (42.5-36.8) and playing to the Cavs’ advantage in their three games (120-115 att., 41.7-39.0% 3PT), efficiency margins like free throws will become important swing factors in close games. The average margin of victory when they met was 5.7.

5. Evan Mobley: His defense alone makes him an edge. Opponents shot 38.9% against him during their possessions where he played defense. He barely factored into the regular season series between these two, missing the first two games and exiting the third early after a 2-for-8 start. Horford has held him to 4-for-11 in their career meetings and the Magic stalled him at 47.9% FG despite Cleveland making his post touches a focal point once Allen went down. Will the Cavs use him to defend Tatum straight-up and take him out of the game? Boston’s star shot only 38.7% against the Cavaliers during the regular season. Or will they play him away from Horford and force Boston’s center to beat them while multiple defenders pack the lane against Tatum and Brown? Garland offered a hint on Tuesday.

“(We’ll ) try to limit Jayson and Jaylen, make them try to take tough 2s, tough 3s over our longer defenders. Push in transition. Move the ball side-to-side,” he said. “(And) make Al Horford work a little bit. Make their bigs work a little bit.”