Kadlick’s Three Best Bets for Sunday: Patriots vs. Packers Props

With Brian Hoyer likely getting the start at quarterback for the Patriots on Sunday, this game feels like the perfect opportunity to blitz Aaron Rodgers, sling the rock all over the yard, and hope for the best.

After all, they’re playing with house money. I talked about this sentiment on the Patriots Beat Podcast on Thursday night with Alex Barth, and how I think this is how they should play.

Ultimately, however, they’re not going to do this. They’re going to play conservative, smash mouth football, and try to get the win even with Hoyer at the helm.

And that’s why you need to make the game more entertaining with props! Our partners at BetOnline.ag have sixteen of them listed for Sunday’s game. Here are my three favorites with a pick for each:

Distance of First Touchdown

Over 7.5 yards              -115

Under 7.5 yards.          -115

Both the Packers and Patriots will need to be run-heavy on offense if they want to win on Sunday. The Pats won’t win with Hoyer throwing the ball 50+ times, and the Packers have two stud running backs who they trust they can run their offense through.

That being said, they’re also not going to be taking shots into the end zone from deep. Each drive is going to be methodical. I think UNDER 7.5 yards for the first TD is an easy win.

The Pick: UNDER 7.5 yards -115

Total Touchdowns

Over 4.5 Touchdowns                EVEN

Under 4.5 Touchdowns               -130

Speaking of touchdowns, I don’t think there are going to be very many of them in this game on Sunday afternoon. My final score prediction in my game preview is 21-13, assuming 3 touchdowns from Green Bay and one from New England.

I’m going to trust my gut here. Only 4 touchdowns will be scored at Lambeau.

The Pick: Under 4.5 Touchdowns -130

Margin of Victory

Green Bay Packers by 1-6 Points                       +315

Green Bay Packers by 7-12 Points                     +350

Green Bay Packers by 13-18 Points                   +400

New England Patriots by 1-6 Points                   +600

Green Bay Packers by 19-24 Points                   +600

Green Bay Packers by 25-30 Points                +1000

Can you tell the oddsmakers don’t think the Patriots are going to win? Out of the top six option for “Margin of Victory”, five of them assume a Green Bay win.

Rightfully so, I guess. I think New England keeps it close, but at the end of the day the Packers pull it out (hopefully by 7-12).

The Pick: Packers by 7-12 Points +350

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